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Huobi Blockchain Big Data Weekly Insights (Vol.6 2018/7/11–2018/7/18)

All data in this report was captured and analyzed by Huobi Research; please cite the source “Huobi Data Analytics Weekly” for reference.

New data included: Change in Balance of Top 30 Bitcoin Address, Change in Balance of Top 30 Ethereum Address.

Abstract

  • On-Blockchain Data:

The number of active Bitcoin addresses rose significantly this week from 3.18 million to 4.21 million, the highest since May. The concentration of wealth on BTC network decreased slightly this week. The number of large transactions on BTC network this week decreased drastically from 841 to 400. The total volume of transactions worth between 100 and 1,000 BTC accounted for 30.8% of all BTC transactions this week. There were four addresses with significant change in balance Four among all top 30 Bitcoin addresses this week, all of which were BTC inflows.

The number of active address in ETH rebounded after a sharp decline in the previous two weeks from 1.09 to 1.21 million. The overall ETH transaction volume dropped by 15% to 9.22 million ETH, falling consecutively for four weeks. The total number of transactions increased 6.4% to 4.14 million. The overall transaction fee decreased to 22,000 ETH, and average transaction fee was 0.0053 ETH this week. Concentration of wealth on ETH network increased drastically. There was no extra-large transaction on ETH network. The overall volume of transactions worth over 10,000 ETH decreased slightly, but the overall volume of transactions worth less than 10,000 ETH increased compared to last week.

  • Social Media Data:

BTC, ETH, and EOS were the top trending cryptocurrencies in China and overseas. in the Events category, “Risk”, “Ecosystem” and “Regulation” were the hottest words in China, while “Bot”, “Decentralized” and “Community” were the hottest overseas; in the Exchange and KOL category, “Huobi”, “OKEX” and “Li Xiaolai” were the hottest in China, while “Coinbase”, “Binance” and “HitBTC” were the hottest overseas. BTC, ETH and EOS were the most active projects on GitHub with the most added and accumulated Stars and Forks. Search trend pfor Cryptocurrency and Blockchain related keywords have experienced decrease on Google, remained the same on Baidu, and experienced increase on Baidu. In general, there was increasing focus on “Blockchain” across all three platforms.

  • Market Trading Data:

The price of all top 10 cryptoassets experienced an obvious bounce, with EOS having the biggest increase in price of 20.1%. In terms of price volatility, BTC has the smallest volatility of 0.0016 s.d. while Stellar has the largest volatility of 0.0067 s.d. EOS had the largest increase in turnover of 52%. There was a high correlation between all top 10 Cryptocurrencies this week, with price of BTC/Ripple and ETH/IOTA having the largest correlations.

1. On-Blockchain Data

1.1 Active Bitcoin Addresses

The number of active Bitcoin addresses increased 32.4%, from 3.18 million to 4.21 million this week.

Active Bitcoin Addresses (in thousands)

The number of new addresses, continuously active addresses, and reactivated addresses this week remained similar compared to last week. The sudden increase was due to a significant re-activation of old addresses. The number of continuously active addresses increased from 570,000 last week to 610,000, accounting for 14.4% of the total active addresses (17.9% last week). The number of new addresses was 1.26 million, increased by 40,000. The number of reactivated addresses was up 950,000 to 2.34 million, increased by 68.3% from last week.

Categorization of Active Bitcoin Address (in thousands)

1.2 Transactions on Bitcoin Network

The overall transaction volume on the Bitcoin network was 6.318 million BTC, down 2.4% from 6.474 million BTC last week, falling for four consecutive weeks. There were overall 1.393 million transactions, up slightly from1.356 million last week. The average amount of BTC per transaction decreased by 4.8% from 4.77 to 4.54 BTC in a week.

left-BTC trading volume (thousand BTC); right-Number of transactions on BTC network (in thousands)

1.3 Bitcoin TPS

The average bitcoin transaction volume per second (TPS) this week increased to 2.3, rising for four consecutive weeks.

Bitcoin TPS

1.4 Bitcoin Transaction Fee

This week, the overall Bitcoin transaction fee was about the same as last week, from 138 BTC last week to 137.5 BTC. The average transaction fee per transaction was 0.0001 BTC, unchanged from last week.

Bitcoin Transaction Fee (BTC)

1.5 Concentration of Wealth on Bitcoin Network

Concentration of Wealth on Bitcoin Network has decreased compared to last week, suggesting a transfer of wealth from top Bitcoin holders to the remaining addresses. The holding ratios of top 10 addresses was unchanged. Top 10–100 addresses held 13.25% of all Bitcoins, up 0.02% from 13.23% last week. Top 100–1000 addresses held 16.49% of all Bitcoins, down 0.09% from 16.58% last week. The holding ratios of other remaining addresses was 64.28%, up 0.05% from 64.23% last week, the highest in the past month.

Concentration of Wealth on BTC Network

1.6 BTC Large Transactions Monitor

Huobi Research defines “extra-large transactions” as individual transactions worth over 10,000 BTC, and “large transactions” as those worth between 1,000–10,000 BTC. This week, there were no extra-large transactions on Bitcoin network. The number of large transactions decreased from 841 last week to 400, which is the lowest in the past two months.

Large and Extra-large Transactions on BTC Network

1.7 Transaction Volume Distribution of Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s overall transactions volume for transactions worth between 0–1,000 BTC increased, while the overall transaction volume for transactions worth between 1,000–10,000 BTC decreased from last week. There was no extra-large Bitcoin transaction this week. The majority of the transactions this week was worth between 100–1,000 BTC. The total volume of transactions worth between 100 and 1K BTC accounted for 30.8% (26.1% last week) of all BTC transactions this week.

left-Transaction Breakdown by Volume; right-Weekly BTC Transaction Distribution

1.8 Change in Balance of Top 30 Bitcoin Address

This week, among the Top 30 Bitcoin addresses, four addresses had significant changes in their balance, all of them were net inflows. Bitfinex’s cold wallet address had the highest net inflow of 2,576 BTC, followed by a net inflow of 2,002 BTC to the address “38UmuUqPCrFmQo4khkomQwZ4VbY2nZMJ67”.

Change in Balance of Top 30 Bitcoin Address

1.9 Active Ethereum Addresses

The number of active addresses in Ethereum increased from 1.09 million last week to 1.21million, up 11.3%, rebound after a sharp decline in the previous two weeks.

Number of Active Ethereum Addresses (in thousands)

1.10 Transactions on Ethereum Network

The transaction volume on the Ethereum network dropped to 9.22 million ETHs this week, down 15% from last week and falling for four consecutive weeks. Number of transactions on the Ethereum network this week was 4.14 million, down 14.9% from 3.89 million last week. The average transaction volume was 2.23 ETH, down 20% from last week’s 2.79 ETH.

left-Overall Trading Volume on ETH (thousand ETH); right-Number of Transactions on ETH (in thousands)

1.11 Ethereum TPS

This week, Ethereum’s average transaction per second was 6.8, up 6.3% from last week, ending a two-week decline, but still at a two-month low.

Ethereum TPS

1.12 Ethereum Transaction Fee

This week, Ethereum’s total transaction fee decreased from 33,000 ETH to 22,000 ETH, but still at high point. The average transaction fee was 0.0053 ETH, down 38% compared to that of last week.

Ethereum Transaction Fee

1.13 Concentration of Wealth on Ethereum Network

The concentration of wealth on Ethereum network has continued to increase. The top 10 addresses held 11% of all ETH, up 0.14% from last week’s 10.86%. The top 10–100 addresses held 23.39% of all ETH, unchanged from last week. The top 100–1000 addresses held 25.29% of all ETH, increased greatly by 0.83% from last week’s 24.46%. As a result, the remaining addresses held 40.31% of all ETH, down 0.97% from last week’s 41.28%, reached the lowest point in recent two months.

Concentration of Wealth: BTC vs. ETH

1.14 ETH Large Transactions Monitor

Huobi Research defines “extra-large transactions” as individual transactions worth over 5,000 ETH, “large transactions” as those worth between 1,000–5,000 ETH, “other” as those worth under 5,00 ETH. This week, there was no extra-large transaction on ETH network, and the number of large transactions decreased from 66 last week to 55.

Large and Extra-large Transactions on ETH Network

1.15 Transaction Volume Distribution of Ethereum

The overall transaction volume of transactions decreased. The overall volume of ETH transactions worth over 10,000 ETH accounted for 10.5% of all BTC transactions, down 0.8% from last week. The overall volume of ETH transactions worth below 10,000 ETH accounted for 89.5%, up 0.8%.

left-Transaction Breakdown by Volume; right-Weekly ETH Transaction Distribution

1.16 Change in Balance of Top 30 Ethereum Address

This week, among all top 30 Ethereum address, six address had significant changes in their respective balances. Three of them were net inflows and three of them were net outflows. The address of “0x742d35cc6634c0532925a3b844bc454e4438f44e” had the largest change in balance this week — a net inflow of 142,916 ETH.

Change in Balance of Top 30 Ethereum Address

1.17 Wealth Concentration Analysis of Popular ERC20 Tokens

Huobi Research performs wealth concentration analysis on the top 5 ERC20 tokens in terms of their respective market caps: OMG, VEN, ZIL, ICON and ZRX. For ZIL, ICON, and ZRX, the top 10 addresses held more than 60% of all tokens in their respective networks. For VEN, ZIL, and ICON, the top 1000 addresses held more than 90% of all tokens in their respective networks. Compared with last week, the wealth concentration of VEN, ZIL, ICON and ZRX did not change much. The holdings of OMG’s top 10 holders decreased from 51% to 44%, leading a decrease in the wealth concentration.

Wealth Concentration Analysis of Popular ERC20 Tokens

2. Social Media Data

2.1 Keyword Analysis (China)

Huobi Research analyzed text using NLP Word Cloud to extract relevant keywords and understand the overall sentiments from China’s largest Cryptocurrency online community 8btc.com. Specifically, we break down the keywords to three categories: Cryptocurrencies, Events, and Exchanges/Opinion Leaders.

In the Cryptocurrencies category, NLP Word Cloud suggests Bitcoin, EOS, and Ethereum as the three cryptocurrencies that received the most widespread attention (similar to previous weeks). Discussions on Bitcoin and Ethereum mainly focused on price and trading strategies, while discussions on Ethereum also focused on the recently congested network.

In the Events category, NLP Word Cloud suggests “Risk”, “Ecosystem” and “Regulation” as the hottest words of the week. “Risk” has been the top word for 3 consecutive weeks, with its discussion focused on 1. The risk of new crypto exchanges (such as FT and OCX) absconding with individual investors’ money; 2. The risk of investing in Cryptocurrency during violent price fluctuation; and 3. The risk of governments enforcing stricter rulings on Cryptocurrency investment. Discussions regarding “Ecosystem” mainly focused on the relationship between Cryptocurrencies and its ecosystem development, as it is becoming a very important point of consideration for Cryptocurrency investors. Posts regarding “Regulations” mainly focused on 1. The possibility of Chinese government enforcing even stricter Cryptocurrency regulations, resulting in another cash in Cryptocurrency prices; and 2. Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures (CPMI), a committee comprising of the governors of the central banks of G10 nations proposed a Cryptocurrency monitoring framework to Chinese regulating authorities.

In the Exchanges/Opinion Leaders category, NLP Word Cloud suggests “Huobi”, “OKEX”, and “Li Xiaolai” as the three hottest words of the week. Specifically, posts regarding “Huobi” and “OKEX” mainly focused on the Cryptocurrency listing procedures and their respective Cryptocurrency prices. Similar to last week, posts regarding “Li Xiaolai” mainly focused on the released recording of Li “revealing the crypto industry.” Discussions on Li Xiaolai this week also focused on Li posting recording of Chen Weixing on Weibo.

8btc.com Word Cloud

We witness a drastic change in the trending topics this week, with focus on “Frozen”, “Bithumb”, “Subchain”, “USA”, “HT” receiving the largest increase, while focus on “Li Xiaolai”, “RAM”, “Chen Weixing”, “BTS” and “Achain” receiving the largest decrease.

left-Least Trending Topics on 8btc.com; right-Most Trending Topics on 8btc.com

2.2 Keyword Analysis (Overseas)

We also performed NLP Word Analysis on Reddit’s r/CryptoCurrency Subreddit to understand the trending topics and overall sentiments overseas, and we similarly broke down the keywords into three categories: Cryptocurrencies, Events, and Exchanges/Opinion Leaders.

In the Cryptocurrencies category, NLP Word Cloud suggests that, same as in 8btc.com, “Bitcoin”, “Ethereum”, and “EOS” are the three cryptocurrencies that received the most widespread attention. Discussions on Bitcoin focused on the recent price as well as CBOE filing an application for Bitcoin ETF; discussions on Ethereum were similar to the discussions on China’s 8btc.com — price fluctuation and clogged network; discussions on EOS focused on the future of EOS, with one popular post discussed the possibility of EOS replacing ETH as the definitive Blockchain platform.

In the Events category, NLP Word Cloud suggests “Bots”, “Decentralized” and “Community” as the three hottest words of the week. Specifically, “Bots” refers to whether using “Crypto Trading Bots” is profitable, as well as the discussions on whether the recent congested network was a result of Bot attack; discussion on “Decentralized” focused on the recent decentralized exchanges as well as decentralized sport betting and gambling platforms; “Community” refers to the discussion on different Cryptocurrency communities.

In the Exchanges/Opinion Leaders category, NLP Word Cloud suggests “Coinbase”, “Binance”, and “HitBTC” as the three hottest words of the week. Coinbase received widespread attention due to its recent announcement that it has received approval from SEC to acquire three companies, and discussions on HitBTC mainly focused on its users losing confidence due to extremely long deposit/withdraw processing time.

r/CryptoCurrency Word Cloud

This week on r/CryptoCurrency, the focus on “Bitmex”, “Stellar”, “EOS”, “Coinbase”, “SEC” has received the largest increase, while focus on “FT”, “Bitfinex”, “Fcoin”, “Mining” and “IOTA” receiving the largest decrease in a week.

left-Least Trending Topics on r/CryptoCurrency; right-Most Trending Topics on r/CryptoCurrency

2.3 GitHub Code Activity

Among all GitHub communities, BTC, ETH, and EOS are the most active projects of all time. BTC, ETH, and EOS are also the projects with the most Stars and Forks in the past week.

left-Top Starred/Forked Projects on GitHub (All-time); right-Top Starred/Forked Projects on GitHub (This Week)

2.4 Search Trends

This week, search trends for “Bitcoin”, “Ethereum”, “EOS”, and “Cryptocurrency” experienced a decrease, while search trends for “Blockchain” and “Smart Contract” experienced an increase on Baidu. Search trend performance of these words on Google was similar to last week, except for “EOS” which received a drastic increase. On WeChat, only “Bitcoin” and “Ethereum” experienced increase in trend performance. In general, there was increasing focus on “Blockchain” across all three platforms.

Weekly Changes in Search Trends

3. Market Trading Data

3.1 Rate of Return/Price Volatility

In the cryptocurrency market this week, the price of all top 10 cryptoassets experienced obvious bounce in price. Among all top 10 cryptocurrencies, Stellar experienced the largest decrease of 20.1% and BTC experienced the smallest decrease of 5.5% in their respective prices. In terms of price volatility, BTC has the smallest volatility rate of 0.0016 s.d. (standard deviation of price fluctuation in every 15 minutes), and Cardano has the largest volatility rate of 0.0067 s.d.

Rate of Return vs Price Volatility

3.2 Turnover

EOS, TRON and LTC were the three cryptocurrencies with the largest turnover this week, each with 52% (84.3% last week), 46.7% (41.4% last week), and 35.8% (44% last week) respectively. Stellar, Ripple and IOTA had the smallest turnovers this week, each with 5.7% (compared to 7.8% last week), 6.7% (compared to 10.8% last week) and 8.2% (compared to 14.9% last week), respectively. In general, turnover of top 10 cryptocurrencies decreased compared to last week, with EOS received the largest decrease in turnover (32.5% increase from last week).

Rate of Return vs Turnover

3.3 Cryptocurrency Price Correlations

Correlation amongst assets is the degree to which they move in tandem. The matrices above show Pearson correlations and p-values that are computed from log-returns of volume-weighted average daily prices over the past week.

This week, there was high correlation between all top 10 Cryptocurrencies prices as they all received increase in various degrees. Correlation efficiencies between all top 10 Cryptocurrencies were generally over 0.85 except for Stellar and Cardano, whose correlation efficiencies between other top 10 Cryptocurrencies were generally over 0.72.

Stellar/Monero and Stellar/Ripple had the lowest correlations efficiency of 0.72 and 0.74, while BTC/Ripple and ETH/IOTA had the highest correlations efficiency of 0.99.

Pearson Correlations Matrix between Cryptocurrencies

Huobi Research

About us:

Huobi Research of Blockchain Application (Huobi Research) was founded in April 2016 and started research and explorations in various aspects in blockchain area since March 2018. We cover blockchain technology research, industry analysis, application innovation and economic model explorations etc. We aim to establish a research platform and to offer theoretical foundations as well as judgements of trends in blockchain to the public, ultimately promoting the development of the entire industry.

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Website: http://research.huobi.com/

Disclaimer:

1. Huobi Research does not have any form of association with blockchain projects or other third-parties mentioned in this report that could jeopardize the objectivity, independence and fairness of this report.

2. All outside information, data referenced in this report is from compliant and legitimate sources that we deem as reliable, and Huobi Research have conducted the due diligence concerning its authenticity, accuracy and completeness, but such due diligence does not provide any guarantee.

3. This report is only for reference purposes. Conclusions and viewpoints in the report do not constitute any form of investment advice on crypto assets. Huobi Research is not responsible for any losses resulting from the use of this report, unless stipulated by law. Under no circumstances should the readers give up their own investment analysis and judgements.

4. This report only reflects the opinions from Huobi Research on the day it was finalized. Future market condition changes may lead to updates of such judgements.

5. The report is copyrighted by Huobi Research, please cite the source when quote, and get approval from us when large amount of contents is referenced. Under no circumstances is reference, abridgment and modification contrary to original intention permitted.

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