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Huobi Blockchain Big Data Weekly Insights (Vol.8 2018/7/25–2018/8/1)

All data in this report is captured and analyzed by Huobi Research; please cite the source “Huobi Blockchain Big Data Weekly Insights” for reference.

New Data Included: Watchers on GitHub, Commits and Releases on GitHub

Abstract

  • On-Blockchain Data:

This week, the number of active Bitcoin addresses dropped from 3.52 to 3.51 million,of which the number of new addresses increased from 1.37 to 1.41 million, and the number of reactivated addresses decreased 110,000 to 1.48 million. There were 4 extra-large transactions (each worth 10,000 BTC) and 398 large transactions on BTC network this week. The total volume of transactions worth between 10 and 100 BTC accounted for 32.1% of all BTC transactions (33.9% last week). There were two top 30 Bitcoin addresses with significant change in balance, including 1 net inflow and 1 net outflow.

The number of active address in ETH increased 12.1% from 1.565 to 1.754 million. The overall transaction fee decreased from 11,000 to 9,000 ETH, and average transaction fee decreased 19% to 0.0017 ETH this week, the lowest in two months. Concentration of wealth on ETH network increased slightly. There were two extra-large transaction on ETH network this week, which is a transaction between two Bitfinex cold wallets. Among the top trending ERC20 Tokens, the wealth concentration of VEN and ICON increased slightly this week.

  • Social Media Data:

BTC, ETH, and EOS continued to be the top trending cryptocurrencies in China, while BTC, ETH, and Ripple continued to be the top trending cryptocurrencies overseas. In the Events category, “Risk”, “Smart Contracts” and “Public Chain” were the hottest words in China, while “Bot”, “Community” and “Mining” were the hottest overseas; in the Exchange and KOL category, “Huobi”, “OKEX” and “Fcoin” were the hottest in China, while “Coinbase”, “Binance” and “Vitalik” were the hottest overseas. BTC, ETH and EOS are the most active projects on GitHub with the most accumulated stars and forks; ETH, BTC, and Cardano are the projects with the most commits; ETH, Ripple, and Litecoin are the project with the most releases.

  • Market Trading Data:

The price of top 10 Cryptocurrencies experienced decrease to various degrees, with Cardano receiving the biggest decrease of 16.4% and IOTA receiving the smallest of 3.5% in their respective prices. In terms of price volatility, Ripple had the lowest volatility rate of 0.0022 s.d. while Stellar had the largest volatility rate of 0.0062 s.d. Turnover of Cryptocurrencies increased significantly compared to last week, with EOS having the largest turnover of 78%. ETH/Ripple, Carnado/EOS, Carnado/ETH had the highest correlation in price this week, while BCH/IOTA and BTC/IOTA had the lowest correlation in price this week.

1. On-Blockchain Data

1.1 Active Bitcoin Addresses

This week, the number of active Bitcoin addresses was nearly unchanged compared to last week, dropping from 3.52 million to 3.51 million while it’s still at the peak level.

Active Bitcoin Address (in thousands)

This week, the number of new addresses has continued to increase for the fourth consecutive week. It’s the highest in the past two months. The number of continuously active addresses increased and that of the reactivated addresses decreased. The number of new addresses increased from 1.37 million to 1.41 million. The continuously active addresses increased from 56,000 to 62,000, accounting for 14.4% of the total active addresses (17.7% last week). The number of reactivated addresses was reduced 0.11million from 1.59 to 1.48 million, dropping 6.9%.

Categorization of Active Bitcoin Address (in thousands)

1.2 Transactions on Bitcoin Network

The overall transaction volume on the Bitcoin network was 5.92 million BTC, decreased by 7.5% from 6.398 million BTC last week. There were overall 1.542 million transactions, up slightly from1.53 million last week. The average amount of BTC per transaction decreased by 8.1% from 4.18 to 3.84 BTC in a week.

Left: BTC trading volume (thousand BTC); Right: Number of transactions on BTC network (in thousands)

1.3 Bitcoin TPS

The average bitcoin transaction volume per second (TPS) this week increased to 2.55, rising for six consecutive weeks.

Bitcoin TPS

1.4 Bitcoin Transaction Fee

This week, the overall Bitcoin transaction fee was decreased from 171.7 to 154 BTC. The average transaction fee per transaction was 0.0001 BTC, decreased slightly from last week.

Bitcoin Transaction Fee (BTC)

1.5 Concentration of Wealth on Bitcoin Network

Concentration of Wealth on Bitcoin Network was nearly unchanged compared to last week. The holding ratios of top 10 addresses decreased 0.02%. Top 10–100 addresses held 13.12% of all Bitcoins, decreased by 0.18% from 13.3% last week. Top 100–1000 addresses held 16.64% of all Bitcoins, up 0.18% from 16.46% last week. The holding ratios of other remaining addresses held 64.28%, up 0.01% from 64.27% last week.

Concentration of Wealth on BTC Network

1.6 BTC Large Transactions Monitor

Huobi Research defines “extra-large transactions” as individual transactions worth over 10,000 BTC, and “large transactions” as those worth between 1,000–10,000 BTC. This week, there were four extra-large transactions on Bitcoin network. Each worth10000 BTC, and worth 40000 BTC in total. The number of large transactions increased from 380 last week to 398.

Large and Extra-large Transactions on BTC Network

1.7 Transaction Volume Distribution of Bitcoin

This week, the volume of all ranges of Bitcoin’s transactions volume decreased except that of the “extra-large transactions”. The majority of the transactions this week worth between 10–100 BTC, accounted for 32.1% (33.9% last week, decreased by 1.8%) of all BTC transactions this week.

left-Transaction Breakdown by Volume (in thousands); right-Weekly BTC Transaction Distribution

1.8 Change in Balance of Top 30 Bitcoin Address

This week, among the Top 30 Bitcoin addresses, 2 addresses had significant changes in their balance, including 1 net inflows and 1 net out flows. Bitfinex’s cold wallet address had a net outflow of 2,572 BTC, followed by a net inflow of 3,003 BTC to the address “38UmuUqPCrFmQo4khkomQwZ4VbY2nZMJ67”, which had net inflows above 2000 BTC for two consecutive weeks.

Change in Balance of Top 30 Bitcoin Address

1.9 Active Ethereum Addresses

The number of active addresses in Ethereum has continued to increase significantly from 1.565 million last week to 1.754 million, increasing 12.1% and rising for three consecutive weeks.

Number of Active Ethereum Addresses (in millions)

1.10 Transactions on Ethereum Network

The transaction volume on the Ethereum network decreased to 10.47 million ETHs this week, decreased by 4.6% from last week. Number of transactions on the Ethereum network this week was 5.22 million, up 4.6% from 4.99 million last week. The average transaction volume was 2 ETH, decreased by 10% from last week.

Left: Overall Trading Volume on ETH (million ETH); Right: Number of Transactions on ETH (in millions)

1.11 Ethereum TPS

This week, Ethereum’s average transaction per second was 8.6, up 3.6% from last week and increasing for three consecutive weeks.

Ethereum TPS

1.12 Ethereum Transaction Fee

This week, Ethereum’s total transaction fee has continued to decrease from 11,000 ETH to 9,000 ETH, the lowest in two months. The average transaction fee was 0.0017 ETH, decreased by 19% compared to that of last week.

Ethereum Transaction Fee

1.13 Concentration of Wealth on Ethereum Network

The concentration of wealth on Ethereum network was nearly unchanged compared to last week. The top 10 addresses held 11.04% of all ETH, up 0.03% from last week. The top 10–100 addresses held 23.6% of all ETH, up 0.04% from last week. The top 100–1000 addresses held 25.19% of all ETH, decreased by 0.05% from last week’s 25.24%. As a result, the remaining addresses held 40.18% of all ETH, decreased by 0.01% from last week’s 40.19%, reached the lowest point in recent two months.

Concentration of Wealth: BTC vs. ETH

1.14 ETH Large Transactions Monitor

Huobi Research defines “extra-large transactions” as individual transactions worth over 5,000 ETH, “large transactions” as those worth between 1,000–5,000 ETH, “other” as those worth under 5,00 ETH. This week, there were two extra-large transaction of 1194453 ETH in total on ETH network. Investigations shows that this is a transaction between two Bitfinex cold wallets. The number of large transactions decreased from 66 last week to 42.

Large and Extra-large Transactions on ETH Network

1.15 Transaction Volume Distribution of Ethereum

Transaction volume of all ranges of transactions decreased except the “extra-large transactions”. The transactions worth between 10K-50K ETH had the largest decrease in proportion, decreasing from 10.3% to 6.8%.

Left: Transaction Breakdown by Volume (in thousands); Right: Weekly ETH Transaction Distribution

1.16 Change in Balance of Top 30 Ethereum Address

This week, among all top 30 Ethereum address, 4 address had significant changes in their respective balances. Three of them were net inflows and one of them was net outflows. The address of “0x742d35cc6634c0532925a3b844bc454e4438f44e” had the largest change in balance this week — a net inflow of 24,618 ETH. It was worth noting that the address had large net inflows for three consecutive weeks.

Change in Balance of Top 30 Ethereum Address

1.17 Wealth Concentration Analysis of Popular ERC20 Tokens

Huobi Research performs wealth concentration analysis on the top 5 ERC20 tokens in terms of their respective market caps: OMG, VEN, ZIL, ICON and ZRX. For ZIL, ICON, and ZRX, the top 10 addresses held more than 60% of all tokens in their respective networks. For VEN, ZIL, and ICON, the top 1000 addresses held more than 90% of all tokens in their respective networks. Compared with last week, the wealth of the top addresses of VEN and ICON increased slightly.

Wealth Concentration Analysis of Popular ERC20 Tokens

2. Social Media Data

2.1 Keyword Analysis (China)

Huobi Research analyzed text using NLP Word Cloud to extract relevant keywords and understand the overall sentiments from China’s largest Cryptocurrency online community 8btc.com. Specifically, we break down the keywords to three categories: Cryptocurrencies, Events, and Exchanges/Opinion Leaders.

In the Cryptocurrencies category, NLP Word Cloud suggests Bitcoin, EOS, and Ethereum as the three cryptocurrencies that received the most widespread attention (similar to previous weeks), with discussions mainly focused on price and trading strategies.

In the Events category, NLP Word Cloud suggests “Risk”, “Smart Contract” and “Public Chain” as the hottest words of the week. “Risk” has been the top word for 5 consecutive weeks, with its discussions focused on 1. the risk of potential BTC price crash; 2. the risk resulted by security vulnerability of USDT; and 3. The risk of using EOS’s vulnerable smart contract. Discussions on “Smart Contract” focused on the recent security loophole of Blockchain smart contracts, and discussions on “Public Chain” focused on the currently ongoing Huobi Chain Superhero Championship Program, as well as the comparison of various public Blockchain platforms.

In the Exchanges/Opinion Leaders category, NLP Word Cloud suggests “Huobi”, “OKEX”, and “Fcoin” as the three hottest words of the week. Specifically, posts regarding “Huobi” and “OKEX” mainly focused on the Cryptocurrency listing procedures and their respective Cryptocurrency prices, with discussions on “Huobi” also focused on the currently ongoing HCSCP voting. Discussion on “Fcoin” focused on the recent price crash of FT.

8btc.com Word Cloud

We witness a drastic change in the trending topics this week, with focus on “Justin Sun”, “Doge(coin)”, “GitHub”, “Litecoin”, “Ripple” receiving the largest increase, while focus on “Xu Mingxing (of OKcoin”, “Bitstamp”, “Coinbase”, “Airdrop” and “Dividends” receiving the largest decrease.

left-Top Trending Topics on 8btc.com; right-Least Trending Topics on 8btc.com

2.2 Keyword Analysis (Overseas)

We also performed NLP Word Analysis on Reddit’s r/CryptoCurrency Subreddit to understand the trending topics and overall sentiments overseas, and we similarly broke down the keywords into three categories: Cryptocurrencies, Events, and Exchanges/Opinion Leaders.

In the Cryptocurrencies category, NLP Word Cloud suggests that, “Bitcoin”, “Ethereum”, and “Ripple” were the three cryptocurrencies that received the most widespread attention this week. Discussions on Bitcoin focused on the recent BTC price as well as the rejection of Winklevoss ETF proposal, while discussions on Ethereum focused on price, trading strategy, and the recent news that Australia’s Commonwealth Bank utilized Ethereum-based Blockchain solution for international trade. Discussions on Ripple this week focused on the rumor that Bill Clinton will attend Ripple’s conference.

In the Events category, NLP Word Cloud suggests “BOT”, “Community” and “Mining” as the three hottest words of the week. Discussions on “BOT” focused on its trading strategy, while discussions on “Mining” focused on the recent 10% increase in Bitcoin’s Hashrate, which would make Bitcoin mining even more unprofitable. “Community” referred to the discussion of the “Cryptocurrency project with the strongest community support.”

In the Exchanges/Opinion Leaders category, NLP Word Cloud suggests “Coinbase”, “Binance”, and “Vitalik” as the three hottest words of the week, with discussions on “Vitalik” focused his tweet that says people should pay less attention to ETF and more attention to the actual adoption of the Blockchain technology.

r/CryptoCurrency Word Cloud

This week on r/CryptoCurrency, the focus on “BNB”, “Vitalik”, “Monero”, “Mining”, “Ripple” has received the largest increase, while focus on “BCH”, “China “Fomo3D”, “Manipulation” and “ETF” receiving the largest decrease in a week.

left-Top Trending Topics on r/CryptoCurrency; right-Least Trending Topics on r/CryptoCurrency

2.3 GitHub Code Activity

Among all GitHub repositories, BTC, ETH and EOS are the Cryptocurrency projects with the most stars and watchers, followed by IOTA, Ripple, and Litecoin.

Left:Stars and Watchers on GitHub; Right: Forks on GitHub

Among all GitHub repositories, ETH, BTC, and Cardano are the Cryptocurrency projects with the most commits, while ETH, Ripple and Litecoin are the projects with the most releases.

Commits and Releases on GitHub

2.4 Search Trends

This week, there has been decreasing searching interest for Cryptocurrency-related keywords on Google, Baidu, and WeChat. The only exceptions were search for “Bitcoin” and “Ethereum” on Google, and search for “Smart Contract” on Baidu. Search for “Cryptocurrency” and “Smart Contract” on Google has decreased by 16.7% and 18.2%, respectively, while search for “EOS” on Baidu has decreased by 16.5%.

Weekly Changes in Search Trends

3. Market Trading Data

3.1 Rate of Return/Price Volatility

In the cryptocurrency market this week, the price of most top 10 cryptoassets experienced decrease to various degrees. Among all top 10 cryptocurrencies, Stellar experienced the largest decrease of 16.4% and IOTA experienced the smallest decrease of 3.5% in their respective prices. In terms of price volatility, Ripple has the smallest volatility rate of 0.0022 s.d. (standard deviation of price fluctuation in every 15 minutes), and Stellar has the largest volatility rate of 0.0062 s.d.

Rate of Return vs Price Volatility

3.2 Turnover

EOS, TRON and LTC were the three cryptocurrencies with the largest turnover this week, each with 78% (52.7% last week), 50.2% (37.3% last week), and 50.2% (37.3% last week) respectively. Ripple, IOTA and Stellar had the smallest turnovers this week, each with 9% (compared to 7.4% last week), 10.3% (compared to 9.2% last week) and 15.5% (compared to 5.4% last week), respectively. In general, overall turnover of top 10 cryptocurrencies has been similar compared to last week.

Rate of Return vs Turnover

3.3 Cryptocurrency Price Correlations

Correlation amongst assets is the degree to which they move in tandem. The matrices above show Pearson correlations and p-values that are computed from log-returns of volume-weighted average daily prices over the past week.

This week, there is high correlation between the price of all top 10 Cryptocurrencies except for BTC, TRON and IOTA. BCH/IOTA and BTC/IOTA had the lowest correlation coefficient of 0.26 and 0.38, while Cardano/EOS and Cardano/ETH had the highest correlation coefficient of 0.97.

Pearson Correlations Matrix of top 10 Cryptocurrencies

Huobi Research

About us:

Huobi Research of Blockchain Application (Huobi Research) was founded in April 2016 and started research and explorations in various aspects in blockchain area since March 2018. We cover blockchain technology research, industry analysis, application innovation and economic model explorations etc. We aim to establish a research platform and to offer theoretical foundations as well as judgements of trends in blockchain to the public, ultimately promoting the development of the entire industry.

Contact us:

E-mail:huobiresearch@huobi.com

Twitter: @Huobi_Research

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Website: http://research.huobi.com/

Disclaimer:

1. Huobi Research does not have any form of association with blockchain projects or other third-parties mentioned in this report that could jeopardize the objectivity, independence and fairness of this report.

2. All outside information, data referenced in this report is from compliant and legitimate sources that we deem as reliable, and Huobi Research have conducted the due diligence concerning its authenticity, accuracy and completeness, but such due diligence does not provide any guarantee.

3. This report is only for reference purposes. Conclusions and viewpoints in the report do not constitute any form of investment advice on crypto assets. Huobi Research is not responsible for any losses resulting from the use of this report, unless stipulated by law. Under no circumstances should the readers give up their own investment analysis and judgements.

4. This report only reflects the opinions from Huobi Research on the day it was finalized. Future market condition changes may lead to updates of such judgements.

5. The report is copyrighted by Huobi Research, please cite the source when quote, and get approval from us when large amount of contents is referenced. Under no circumstances is reference, abridgment and modification contrary to original intention permitted.

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