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Huobi Blockchain Big Data Weekly Insights (Vol.2 2018/6/13–2018/6/20)

All data in this report were captured and analyzed by Huobi Research; please cite the source “Huobi Data Analytics Weekly” when quote.

New data included: Concentration of Wealth on BTC network, ETH data, Key Words of Reddit

Abstract

-Bitcoin/Ethereum Data:

This week, the active BTC addresses number dropped from 3.28 to 3.13 million, with numbers of new addresses, activate addresses and reactivated addresses all decreasing. The overall BTC transaction volume continued to rise, reaching 9.48 million BTC; the number of BTC transactions decreased to 1.32 million and average transaction value increased to 7.18 BTC. The BTC TPS decreased slightly to 2.18. The overall BTC transaction fee was 229 BTC, with an average fee of 0.00017 BTC, increased 70% from last week. BTC address was not concentrated, with the richest 10 addresses held only 6% of all BTC.

This week, the active ETH addresses number declined 6.6% to 1.56 million.

The overall transaction volume increased 21.6% to 18.1 million ETH, with average transaction value increasing 27.3%. ETH TPS decreased 4.5% to 8.4, with 15,000 ETH being consumed as transaction fee, which shows a 25% increase in average fee to 0.003 ETH.

-Social Media Data:

BTC, EOS, and ETH as the three cryptocurrencies receiving the most attention this week both in China and worldwide; “Voting”, “Bounce” and “Risk” were the most-used words on China’s 8btc.com; “Bot”, “Decentralized” and “Scam” as the hottest words on Reddit. “Huobi”, “OKEX” and “Binance” were mostly mentioned Exchanges on 8btc.com, while “Binance”, “Coinbase” and “Bithumb” were mostly mentioned on Reddit. As a new crypto exchange, “Fcoin” has gained increasing traction this week. BTC, ETC and EOS were the most active projects on GitHub, receiving the most “stars” and “forks” combined. The search trends with regard to BTC has experienced an apparent increase, while the buzz around EOS seemed to cool down this week.

-Secondary Market Performance :

The crypto market remained relatively stable, with TRON experienced the largest increase of 7% and IOTA experienced the largest decrease of 13% in value. BTC had the smallest volatility of 0.0028 while IOTA had the largest one of 0.0063. The market turnover decreased overall this week, with EOS (80%), TRON (49%) and BTC (29%) having the highest ones, XLM (7.8%), XRP (10.6%), and ADA (16.1%) having the lowest ones. The prices of top 10 cryptocurrencies no longer move in tandem, with IOTA/ETH having the lowest correlation of 0.12, and IOT/XRP having the strongest correlation of 0.93.

1. Bitcoin/Ethereum Data

1.1 Active Bitcoin Addresses

The number of active Bitcoin addresses this week has dropped slightly from last week, down from 3.28 million to 3.13 million. The number of active Bitcoin addresses has been falling in two consecutive weeks.

Active Bitcoin Addresses (in thousands)

Regarding categorization, there are decreases in the number of newly- activated addresses, already-active addresses and re-activated addresses, resulting in a 4.5% decrease in overall number of active Bitcoin addresses compared to last week. This week, there are 550,000 already-active addresses, accounting for 17.5% of the overall number of active addresses this week, comparing to 600,000 already-active addresses accounting 18.3% of the overall addresses last week. There are 1.65 million newly-activated Bitcoin addresses this week, 60,000 less than the previous week. The number of reactivated addresses have decreased to 930,000 from 970,000 last week.

Categorization of Active Bitcoin Address(in thousands)

1.2 Transactions on Bitcoin Network

The overall transaction volume on the Bitcoin network has continued to rise in four consecutive weekly, reaching a worth a 9.48 million BTC, a 3.4% increase from 9.16 million BTC in last week. However, the number of transactions on Bitcoin network this week has decreased to 1.32 million from 1.39 million this week. The average transaction volume on Bitcoin this week is increased significantly to 7.18 BTC per transaction from 6.57 last week, a 9.2% increase in a week.

Overall Bitcoin Transaction Volume (in BTC) and Number of Bitcoin Transactions

1.3 Bitcoin TPS

The number of transactions per second on the Bitcoin network has decreased slightly, from 2.3 to 2.18 in a week.

Bitcoin TPS

1.4 Bitcoin Transaction Fee

The overall transaction fee on Bitcoin network has increased significantly, from 140 to 229.9 BTC. The average transaction fee is 0.00017 BTC, a 70% increase compared to last week (the highest in the past four weeks).

Bitcoin Transaction Fee(in BTC)

1.5 Concentration of Wealth on Bitcoin Network

There is a rather low concentration of wealth on Bitcoin network this week, with 6% of all Bitcoins held by the richest 10 addresses, and 35.8% of all Bitcoins held by the richest 1000 addresses.

Concentration of Wealth on Bitcoin Network

1.6 Active Ethereum Addresses

The number of active addresses on Ethereum has continued to decline in three consecutive weeks, down by 6.6% to 1.56 million from 167.5 million in a week.

Number of Active Ethereum Addresses (in thousands)

1.7 Transactions on Ethereum Network

The overall transaction volume on Ethereum has increased 21.6% to 18.1 million ETH this week. However, the number of transactions this week that occurred on Ethereum network this week has continued to decrease in four consecutive weeks to 5.09 million from 5.33 million last week. The average value per transaction on Ethereum network is 3.55 ETH, a significant increase of 27.3% compared to 2.79 ETH last week. Overall, while the overall number of transaction volume has been decreasing recently, the average value of each transaction has been increasing steadily.

Overall Transaction Volume on Ethereum (left) and Number of Transactions on Ethereum (right) (in thousands)

1.8 Ethereum TPS

The number of transactions per second on Ethereum this week has been decreasing consistently for 4 weeks straight, down 4.5% from last week to 8.4.

Ethereum TPS

1.9 Ethereum Transaction Fee

There is a 25% increase in overall transaction fee on Ethereum network this week from 13,000 to 15,000 ETH in a week. The average transaction fee this week is 0.003 ETH, a 25% increase from last week.

Ethereum Transaction Fee

2. Social Media Data

2.1 Keyword Analysis (China)

Huobi Research analyze text using NLP to extract relevant entities and understand the overall sentiments from China’s largest Cryptocurrency online community 8btc.com. Specifically, we break down the keywords to three categories: Cryptocurrencies, Events, and Exchanges/Opinion Leaders.

In the Cryptocurrencies category, NLP Word Cloud suggests Bitcoin, EOS, and Ethereum as the three cryptocurrencies that received the most widespread attention (similar to last week). Discussions on Bitcoin were mainly focused on price and time to trade, with discussions on EOS mainly focused on its security/bug issues and voting, and discussions on Ethereum mainly focused on the importance of Smart Contract, the future technological development and SEC’s announcement that Ethereum is not a Security.

In the Events category, NLP Word Cloud suggests “Voting”, “Bounce (in price)” and “Risk” as the three hottest words of the week. Specifically, “Voting” refers to the currently ongoing voting for EOS Supernodes as well as Binance’s “Community Coin of the Month”; “Bounce” refers to the bounce in the cryptocurrency market performance led by Bitcoin this week; “Risk” refers to 1. The risk for Bitcoin miners for the low Bitcoin price at the moment 2. The risk for EOS MainNet after several bugs have been discovered 3. The risk for trading Over-The-Counter (OTC) markets.

In the Exchanges/Opinion Leaders category, NLP Word Cloud suggests “Huobi”, “OKEX”, and “Binance” continued to be the three hottest words of the week. Specifically, posts regarding “Huobi” mainly focused on Huobi’s Superhero Championship Program, Voting for HADAX coin- listing, and Huobi Mining Pool’s announcing candidacy for EOS Supernode. Posts regarding “OKEX” mainly focused on the launch of its “Digital Asset Exchange Open Partnership Program”, and the alleged price manipulation for its Future and Option trading. Posts regarding “Binance” mainly focused on being available again in China, and voting for its “Community Coin of the Month” program. Fcoin has continued to gain traction this week, with topics mainly focusing around the discussion of Fcoin’s token price and the sustainability of its business model.

8btc.com Word Cloud

We witness a drastic change in the trending topics this week, with focus on “World Cup”, “Justin Sun”, “Fcoin”, “SOC”, “Bytom” and “Financial Crisis” receiving the largest increase while focus on “Sharding”, “Mapping (for coin conversion)”, “BCH”, “EOS” and “Litecoin” receiving the largest decrease.

Least(left) and Most(right) Trending Topics on 8btc.com

2.2 Keyword Analysis (Overseas)

We also performed NLP Word Analysis on Reddit’s CryptoCurrency Subreddit to understand the trending topics and overall sentiments overseas, and we similarly broke down the keywords into three categories: Cryptocurrencies, Events, and Exchanges/Opinion Leaders.

In the Cryptocurrencies category, NLP Word Cloud suggests that same as in 8btc.com, “Bitcoin”, “EOS”, and “Ethereum” as the three cryptocurrencies that received the most widespread attention. Discussions on Bitcoin and Ethereum were regarding the same issues as in China, while discussions on EOS focused more on the problem of EOS’s consensus algorithm.

In the Events category, NLP Word Cloud suggests “Bots”, “Decentralized” and “Scam” as the three hottest words of the week. Specifically, “Bots” refers to whether “Crypto Trading Bots” actually work; “Decentralized” refers to the discussion on current decentralized cryptocurrency exchanges and Binance latest move toward such direction; “Scam” refers to Reddit user’s experiences being scammed in ICOs.

In the Exchanges/Opinion Leaders category, NLP Word Cloud suggests “Binance”, “Coinbase”, and “Bithumb”” as the three hottest words of the week. Specifically, posts regarding “Bithumb” focused on it being hacked.

r/CryptoCurrency Word Cloud

2.3 GitHub Code Activity

This week, BTC, ETC and EOS are the most active projects in GitHub of all time.

Top Starred/Forked Projects on GitHub

2.4 Search Trends

This week, Search trends for “Bitcoin” experienced an apparent increase from last week, while search trends for “EOS” experienced a decrease on all search platforms.

Weekly Changes in Search Trends

3. Secondary Market Performance

3.1 Rate of Return/Price Volatility

The cryptocurrency market has seemed to put a break on its current downtrend. Among all top 10 cryptocurrencies, TRON experienced the largest increase of 7% and IOTA experienced the largest decrease of 13% in their respective market caps. In terms of price volatility, BTC has the smallest volatility rate of 0.0028 sd and IOTA has the largest volatility rate of 0.0063 sd.

Rate of Return vs. Price Volatility

3.2 Turnover

EOS, TRON and BTC are the three cryptocurrencies with the largest turnover this week, each with 80%, 49.4%, and 29.3% respectively. Stellar, Ripple and Cardano have the smallest turnover this week, each with 7.8%, 10.6% and 16.1% respectively.

Rate of Return vs. Turnover

3.3 Cryptocurrency Price Correlations

Correlation amongst assets is the degree to which they move in tandem. The matrices above show Pearson correlations and p-values that are computed from log-returns of volume-weighted average daily prices over the past week.

This week, the price of top 10 Cryptocurrencies no longer moves in tandem this week, with IOTA/XRP (0.93), IOTA/NEO (0.92), IOTA/BCH (0.91) having the strongest correlations in price while IOTA/ETH (0.12), EOS/NEO (0.22), EOS/IOTA (0.28) having the weakest correlations in price.

Pearson Correlations Matrix between Cryptocurrencies

Huobi Research

About us:

Huobi Research of Blockchain Application (Huobi Research) was founded in April 2016 and started research and explorations in various aspects in blockchain area since March 2018. We cover blockchain technology research, industry analysis, application innovation and economic model explorations etc. We aim to establish a research platform and to offer theoretical foundations as well as judgements of trends in blockchain to the public, ultimately promoting the development of the entire industry.

Contact us:

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Website: http://research.huobi.com/

Disclaimer:

1. Huobi Research does not have any form of association with blockchain projects or other third-parties mentioned in this report that could jeopardize the objectivity, independence and fairness of this report.

2. All outside information, data referenced in this report is from compliant and legitimate sources that we deem as reliable, and Huobi Research have conducted the due diligence concerning its authenticity, accuracy and completeness, but such due diligence does not provide any guarantee.

3. This report is only for reference purposes. Conclusions and viewpoints in the report do not constitute any form of investment advice on crypto assets. Huobi Research is not responsible for any losses resulting from the use of this report, unless stipulated by law. Under no circumstances should the readers give up their own investment analysis and judgements.

4. This report only reflects the opinions from Huobi Research on the day it was finalized. Future market condition changes may lead to updates of such judgements.

5. The report is copyrighted by Huobi Research, please cite the source when quote, and get approval from us when large amount of contents is referenced. Under no circumstances is reference, abridgment and modification contrary to original intention permitted.

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