Weekly Market Analysis (2021/12/26–2022/01/01)

Abstract

Macro environment:

• US PCE data hit a new high since 1989; US stocks rose across the board on Thursday; markets are betting on a 100 basis point rate hike by the Bank of England in 2022.

Spot market:

• Market Overview: The overall market capitalisation of cryptocurrencies stood at US$2.384 trillion, up 6.4% from last week.
• Technical analysis: BTC fell after sideways oscillation, 45500 support is effective. ETH is shaking sideways after a quick dip and is suspected to be on a downtrend.
• Stablecoin and Capital flow: USDT issued significantly this week. USDT premium is negative. BTC balance in exchanges’ wallets outflowed significantly, ETH balance in exchanges’ wallets remained stable.
• Miner: The BTC hash rate increased significantly.
• Compliance agency: Grayscale Trust BTC/ETH lock-up volume remains stable this week.

Derivatives market:

• The BTC futures open interest returned to normal, with exchange basis fell in some extent. BTC-compliant market futures contracts continued to decline in OI, with trading volume rebounded. BTC perpetual contract funding rates fluctuated below zero.
• BTC options open interests dropped sharply. The IV of BTC options declined slightly this week, and the interval between periods has tightened. BTC options skew gathered in various periods, short-term and ultra-short-term skew rose sharply.
• The open interests of ETH futures declined slightly this week, with basis kept steady. ETH perpetual contract funding rates fluctuated below zero.
• ETH options open interests dropped sharply on 31th. The IV and skew of each period of ETH options continued the trend of last week, the IV continued to drop, and the skew rose overall.

Weekly Market hot spots :

• OpenDAO airdrops SOS tokens to OpenSea trading users.

Macro Environment

BTC and ETH Spot Market Analysis

Analysis of Derivatives Market

Market Hotspots

About us

Huobi Blockchain Application Research Institute (referred to as “Huobi Research Institute”) was established in April 2016. Since March 2018, it has been committed to comprehensively expanding the research and exploration of various fields of blockchain. As the research object, the research goal is to accelerate the research and development of blockchain technology, promote the application of blockchain industry, and promote the ecological optimization of the blockchain industry. The main research content includes industry trends, technology paths, application innovations in the blockchain field, Model exploration, etc. Based on the principles of public welfare, rigor and innovation, Huobi Research Institute will carry out extensive and in-depth cooperation with governments, enterprises, universities and other institutions through various forms to build a research platform covering the complete industrial chain of the blockchain. Industry professionals provide a solid theoretical basis and trend judgments to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the entire blockchain industry.

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