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Hivemind Prediction Markets

AGORA hurricane prediction markets settled

AGORA hurricane prediction markets settled

On November 30 the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season came to an end and Hivemind settled prediction markets forecasting how many hurricanes…
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Mark Roulston
How good are AGORA forecasts?

How good are AGORA forecasts?

An analysis of forecast produced by Hivemind’s AGORA prediction market platform suggests that they are well calibrated.
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Mark Roulston
Announcing the Sept 2020 Covid-19 prediction market settlement

Announcing the Sept 2020 Covid-19 prediction market settlement

Mark Roulston, Senior Data Scientist • 05 Oct 2020
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Mark Roulston
65 percent chance another hurricane will make US landfall this season

65 percent chance another hurricane will make US landfall this season

Mark Roulston, Senior Data Scientist • 15 Oct 2020
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Mark Roulston
Setting initial prices in a prediction market using auctions

Setting initial prices in a prediction market using auctions

A market maker in a prediction market must decide how to set the opening prices. Auctions provide an alternative.
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Mark Roulston
Prediction markets for climate scenario analysis

Prediction markets for climate scenario analysis

Prediction markets are a potentially useful tool for climate scenario planning.
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Mark Roulston
Trading in the Hivemind El Niño Prediction Market II: the API

Trading in the Hivemind El Niño Prediction Market II: the API

The Agora API allows trading to be automated and makes it easier to integrate the output of predictive models into trading decisions.
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Mark Roulston
Trading in the Hivemind El Niño Prediction Market I: the UI

Trading in the Hivemind El Niño Prediction Market I: the UI

The Agora User Interface makes trading in the El Niño Prediction Market straightforward.
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Mark Roulston
Introducing the Hivemind El Niño Prediction Market

Introducing the Hivemind El Niño Prediction Market

The market aggregates the judgment of experts to generate a probabilistic forecast of the global weather phenomenon.
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Mark Roulston
Defining prediction markets contracts

Defining prediction markets contracts

A lack of thought in the definition of prediction market contracts can cause problems when the time comes to settle the market.
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Mark Roulston
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