A Bet of Blockchain Future with Wang Sicong
In the past two days, news of Wang Sicong’s dispute with Qian Qianfang was full of screens. One is the richest generation, and the other is poorest generation. Their class positions are so different. The reason of this dispute is that Hua Qianfang wrote a paragraph on Weibo to illustrate the uselessness of English. His original words are: “For most Chinese, being able to know English is a waste skill. It wastes our innumerable human and financial resources and sacrifices the precious childhood of the children.” Wang Sicong commented: “Are we in times when there are still fools who have never been abroad?”
This tiny thing has led to the 1 billion people who debated about the inequality of two classes of people. However, I am not interested in commenting on this matter, but in what a blogger named @思思碎片have said: “Whenever you encourage the bottom class of the society to give up craving for knowledge, you will get a round of applause.” This sentence really stung me.
I am particularly impressed with this thing. Wang Sicong certainly did not use the words properly. After all, China is so big that the ideology of the whole society is completely fragmented. As a man with low social status, Hua Qianfang, a literary laborer who gradually gains fame through his own efforts, believes that because he does not need to learn English, all Chinese do not need to learn English. There are both cognitive and thinking gaps.
I understand Wang Sicong to a large extent, because he is a student who received education in UK, and he also has father (Wang Jianlin) who is the richest guy in China. His living environment has formed a class of people who have study experience abroad, and who are English-speaking and have an international vision. As a person who has the experience, I often tell a lot to a friend who want to study abroad: Learning is not for knowledge, but for entering an environment, having a multi-dimensional perspective on the same thing, and finally having friends who have the same vision as you. The networks will change your destiny.
Learning English or studying abroad is not a simple matter to learn knowledge, but to use English as a tool to learn about different perspectives and the whole picture of the world. Hua Qianfang graduated from junior high school. Whether he is working, raising chicken, farming, or writing a novel on internet, there is no need to use English. Finally, it is the experience of life that limits Hua Qianfang’s perception of the world. Therefore, the ancestors often said: It is better to go thousands of miles than to read thousands of books. Investing the way you think is the best way to change your destiny.
I have no intention of judging this matter. It’s just that this thing that reminds me of the currency leeks that everyone often talks about. Even Wang Sicong himself posted on Weibo in 2014: BTC is fooling the idiots who buys it. In this dimension, I think that Wang Sicong himself does not have a comprehensive understanding of Bitcoin. Of course, time has passed, and now his views on bitcoin and blockchain may be different.
Because of some recent articles, there are often a variety of friends who add me on WeChat. Someone escaped from the apex of A shares because they read “An article to understand 2019”,and added me to express my gratitude. Of course, what I can feel is the confusion of many people, whether it is bitcoin or blockchain digital currency. I also want to take this opportunity to sort out the context of the entire blockchain world and have a systematic thinking about the future on what is actually the reason for leading the next bull market.
I once read a good article on Medium, written by Daniel Jeffries. It is mainly a prediction of what will happen to Bitcoin in the next 20 years. One of them is that this digital currency universe will need four kinds of digital currency, which mainly includes bitcoin as a deflationary currency and a stable currency as a counter against deflation currency exists now, as well as the system behavior tokens and data reward generation currency. But did not expand to explain. I think he has a simple understanding, but he has not thought about the whole context. Today, we will follow the development of the blockchain and digital currency as a whole to recapture what happened in the previous decade and to make a guide to the next decade.
Forecasts are often easy to be beaten, but knowing shame is close to braveness. Cognition will help you see the glimmer that has penetrated into the present from the future.
My last article, “An article knowing Bitcoin, past and present,” is likely to be too long for many people to read to the end. Here, I will extract some core ideas to help you re-understand the beginning of the entire encryption world. Of course, if you want to think carefully about the whole process, it is best to read the previous article, which has a complete history on human currency and the origin of Bitcoin, which will be very helpful for you to understand the entire world of digital currency.
January 3, 2009, the world’s first bitcoin was born in this world, and it is destined to go through an extraordinary life because this is the starting point for the entire encryption world.
From earliest human culture, the entire human activity is related to gold, and the origin of civilization is closely related to gold. Today we see that the birthplace of civilization is accompanied by gold minerals and development. It is like the earliest development of Bitcoin was accompanied by the fact that different network miners around the world used computers to join nodes to join the Bitcoin network. Comparing bitcoin to digital gold I think it is a very appropriate analogy.
Of course, many people do not fully recognize the deflation properties of Bitcoin. Today as we all know that gold has a total storage capacity of 200,000 tons in the world, however in reality, the real circulating gold only accounts for 0.95% of the total. This already includes the gold bars sold and the products that produce actual use value. I don’t think Bitcoin’s future is like the use of paper money in the world, large-scale, small share, high turnover rate. The future of Bitcoin is more like gold, which is used for the appreciation of stored value.
If we start human civilization from prehistoric civilization to today, comparing the golden ornaments that Sumerian civilization originally possessed with the total value of today’s global wealth, we will see that human wealth has grown from tens of thousands of dollars to today’s magnitude of $320 trillion. It is more than 10 billion times growth. Why do we see the skyrocketing of Bitcoin in the past decade? It is precisely because the machine network civilization is going through the process of human history in a very short time.
Today we see that Bitcoin has only grown to a maximum of 3 million times and will continue to grow in the future with high probability. I personally think that if compare Bitcoin with market value of gold, it will have a market value of $12 trillion in the next decade, which is 150 times of the current price. It means the price of a single bitcoin will reach $600,000.
At this stage, Bitcoin truly fulfills the value of digital gold. You may buy a house with Bitcoin, but it is nearly impossible to buy an Iphone with Bitcoin. Bitcoin must not be circulated as a versatile currency, not as the current legal currency, but more as a currency of the machine network world. This is the purpose of its initial setting as a deflationary currency.
Bitcoin was born in 2009, and another digital currency, Litecoin, was born in2011. Compared to Bitcoin, which is called digital gold, Litecoin has always claimed to be digital silver. In fact, Liteco mainly did only one thing, which was to modify several parameters of Bitcoin. But it is important to find the most understandable cognition, just as how humans first started to use the gold and silver in the history of nearly 10,000 years. At this stage we see the rise of typical stored value digital currencies.
In fact, if we revert to the digital currency world of 2015 to 2017, we will find that Litecoin actually have the highest increase in the same period among mainstream currencies of Ethereum such as bitcoin, Litecoin. Because Litecoin is very good at this stage to undertake the “consensus” of speculation, topics that silver that will rise with the rise in gold prices.
However, in fact, Litecoin did not make any innovation in the sense, except for the name “digital silver”. I don’t think that since Litecoin is self-destructed as silver, in the end it will really become “digital silver.” Based on the fact that Litecoin only changed the total amount of Bitcoin’s currency, from 21 million to 84 million, and adjusted the Scrypt workload proof, Litecoin is more like a privately-produced gold coin, which is a counterfeit coin and was popular in the folks during the Roman Empire compared to the official casting of gold coins.
The final end of the Roman Empire’s counterfeit currency has already been seen. I personally don’t think that Litecoin will continue to exist in the future. Of course, because it is a digital currency generated from 2011, as a well-known IP, it will certainly be speculated. And its price rise and fall still has the meaning, but its value has almost no meaning. So, in the end, Litecoin will gradually disappear into history like its other brothers. Real digital silver should be others. I will explain that later.
From 2009 to 2011, the path of digital currency is just like the era when human history has just passed to the ancient Egyptian civilization from prehistoric civilization, primitive and ignorant. The emergence of the concept of digital gold and digital silver laid the beginning of the entire digital currency world in this period, corresponding to human history. At this stage, due to technical limitations, it was impossible to find a large amount of gold and silver, so the earliest deflationary currency was formed.
During this period, an early human evangelist, the fundamentalist, was created. Such as Li Xiaolai, Zhao Dongdong, bitcoin Jesus, etc., can be understood as extreme bitcoin advocates. Money is like religion, is the conclusion of the 10,000-year history of human existence. And those people are the pharaohs of this empire.
At this time, there is a predecessor of changing history, which is Peercoin. This is a digital currency released in August 2012, founded by SunnyKing. Although the founder of the Peercoin is as mysterious as the founder of Bitcoin, there have been several changes to the Peercoin: for example, there is no supply cap, a fixed 1% inflation rate, a more energy efficient “mining” process. The biggest innovation is that its mining method is a mixture of PoW workload proof and PoS equity proof. The PoS mining method only needs ordinary computers and clients to handle transactions and maintain network security, achieving the aim of energy saving and security.
You are right, this is the consensus algorithm adopted by Ethereum today. In fact, this concept first came from the Peercoin project. Of course, no one will discuss the Peercoin today, because after rising 20 times in October 2013, it disappeared into history due to the last round of bear market. The digital currency, which first proposed a new consensus algorithm, offered the possibility of generating a new protocol, and thus produced value. The final value is determined by the fact that whether the agreement can be widely used.
In fact, the last big bull market between 2011 and 2013 also produced more than 1,000 digital currencies, but today, we can there are no more than five that we can still hear about. Most of the digital currencies have not survived.
But in the same period, a digital currency was produced, Ripple, which is well known today. An early version of the Ripple agreement was introduced in 2004. But that version was not successful, because it can only transfer money between people who trust each other, but cannot produce a chain. There will be no large-scale circulation of value without the chain.
As far as the overall structure of the Ripple system is concerned, I don’t think that Ripple is a public chain, that is, there are no publicly random nodes in the world. Ripple is closer to a coalition chain. That is, the “weak decentralized” blockchain system of the non-public random selection node of B2B. In 2011, Ruibo’s project was first an Internet project to raise money, but because the scene, it could hardly go on. Until 2013, the Ripco coin was made to achieve a legend.
As far as the Ripple project is issued, the usage scenario is more similar to the fact that a technology outsourcing company targeting financial products in the Internet era has issued shares. Apart from the function of securities, Ripple has no way to produce Real user value transfer
Other three very interesting digital currencies were generated during the same period. One is the infinite coin, the other is a penny coin, and the last one is a Dogecoin. A word was particularly popular in 2013, that is, “Bit Gold, Lite Silver, Infinite Copper, Pennies Aluminum.” It is to impose a “conceptual consensus” on digital currencies other than bitcoin. Conceptual consensus is essentially a pseudo-consensus. There is no innovation in the consensus algorithm and no practical problems are solved. In the end, we saw the disappearance of infinite coins and penny coins.
Dogecoin is the digital currency I often talk to my friends. This is a digital currency born in December of 2013. It can be said that technically, it did not make any innovation. The English for this digital currency is Dogecoin, which means local tyrants in English proverbs. It extended to an application scenario, which is tipping. Bitcoin was already very expensive at the time, and everyone was definitely not willing to make tips. Dogecoins are cheap, and European and American countries are countries where tipping culture is prevalent. Eventually, the use of Dogecoin has been achieved. And it is this scene that makes the dog coin have a large-scale use and value transfer.
This stage is like the emergence of the Byzantine Empire and the Chinese Zhou Dynasty in the human world, on the eve of the birth of the Christian era. Infinite coins and Pennies, which also provide no technological innovation, have completely disappeared from our horizons, but the Dogecoin has been retained since it has found a unique application scene. Why is it?
Many people regard digital currency as equity, buying the currency of a digital currency project just like buying a stock, and buy one which has a counterfeit hotspot. We say that the value of any business, whether it is centralized or not, depends on the goods or services offered to the user. But this does not mean that all the value of business belongs to the enterprise. The best equity investment creates and captures the greatest value, but currency investment allows all holders to share their business value.
The value of the investment is based on two points: the market size and the market share of the investment target. The two are often independent of each other. How to assess value has always been a problem with open source projects. For example, open source technologies like Linux bring great value to the world, but Linux itself cannot have any value. But with digital currency, developers can both create value with open source code and generate revenue to define market value for the project.
If we consider a digital currency to be an economic closed loop, this digital currency is the national currency of the project. You will be bargain-hunting the undervalued stock, but you will never be bargain-hunting the Venezuelan currency. Buying air coin or Copycat coin is like scrambling a small country’s currency in Africa. There is no value or meaning.
I think the essence of digital currency is a kind of “decentralized infrastructure of machine intelligence civilization.” If you hold a certain currency, you are betting that the market value of the currency remains the same or can grow in the future, so hold currency is equal to storage value. You are betting: hold it, in the future, you will have either the same amount of wealth or more. The value of currency comes from the fact that everyone thinks is valuable. Therefore, there must be consensus. Without consensus, the currency will lose its intrinsic value. Any currency will go through three phases:
The first stage is the air coin phase. The initial value of the cryptocurrency comes from the speculative behavior of the initial investor, that is, the cryptocurrency is initially held for speculative purposes. The air currency stage of bitcoin is a utopian ideal country. Exchange of Bitcoin with pizza is an important symbol of this stage.
The second stage is to introduce a narrow application for this currency. For example, ETH can be used to participate in ICO, and Bitcoin can be used to purchase goods or services on the dark net. At this time, the value was given, and a consensus began. Therefore, the initial currency price can be produced, such as mining machine costs, electricity costs.
The third stage is to produce a broad application that transfers into a currency with true meaning. That is, people can use it in daily life, and becomes an asset that everyone needs, and an asset that we use to deal with future uncertainties. The real currency is not only an asset with a narrow sense of application, but also a generalized application asset that you can’t survive without it. It is an investment for future uncertainty and a tool for transferring wealth across time and space.
The value currency you are looking for today is likely to be the trading medium of tomorrow. In order to invest in the future, today’s investors must believe that future investors will need the same currency as a storage tool. Future investors also demand the same guarantee. This process eventually became a value consensus.
Think about the process of the birth of the dollar. There were only Native Americans on this North American continent at the beginning of the United States. It was a British colony. From 1776 to 1778, the United States won the War of Independence, when the United States was officially born. Later, after fighting the Civil War, the United States was finally unified. And interspersed among them is the American gold rush. The gold rush is the foundation of the American dream, which defines the early stage of the dollar to be air coin.
It was not until the Second World War of World War I that the dollar produced its own narrow application, which was a weapon. If Europe wants to fight, it must have an advanced supply of weapons, and the United States only accepts dollars for US weapons. Therefore, the US dollar gradually beat the pound into the world history stage. It was not until the collapse of the Bretton Woods system that the dollar was linked to oil and finally completed its broad application and became the world currency.
Money requires a long-term process to generate trust. The early volatility was caused by the value of money depending on the holder’s confidence in the future of the currency. If current holders do not know which factor will affect future, they will not bet on future to hold this currency. At present, most of the digital currencies are only in the air coin stage, but the price violates the “return theorem” of money. Why is this happening? Because the vast majority of investors are blind and rabble.
Although the Peercoin technology has made technological innovations, it has not found its own application scenario. It is only an agreement and cannot produce the basis of long-term consensus. Therefore, it will only die out.
Litecoin, infinite coins, and pennies have neither found their own narrow application scenarios nor produced technological innovations. They are merely conceptual innovations that cannot be sustained, and history will eventually abandon them. The Dogecoins did not make technical innovations but found a unique application scenario, which resulted in a longer survival period, but will eventually be replaced by another thing, which I will explain in detail below.
As we all know, in the last round of bull market, Bitcoin reached a peak of 8,000 yuan in December of 2013, and then plunged all the way, launching a two-year bear market of two years. Until August 17, 2015 reached its lowest point, 900 yuan, after which the digital money market gradually stepped out of the bear market.
The most important digital currency born during this period was Ethereum. Ethereum was the first white paper released in December 2013. In April 2014, the technical yellow book called the Ethereum Technical Bible was released. In July of the same year, the public offering was completed. Until May 15th, the team released the last test network. After two months of testing, the official version of the Ethereum network was released in July, marking the official rise of Ethereum. At the end of July, trading began on major exchanges.
Ethereum is not the first to use the POW+POS consensus mechanism, but it first used this mechanism to occupy the mind. The blockchain protocol is an open source network, meaning that the protocol captures the greatest value, but at the same time, the protocol is also easily forked and sidechained, and the consensus mechanism is used by other public chains. We recognize Ethereum today, not only because it made an innovation in the POW+POS mechanism, but because it found its own application scenario — issuing assets. It is this rigid scene that forms the source of ICO.
Any successful blockchain project will eventually form two layers of competitiveness. One is to find a rigid application scenario of its own, and the other is to find a unique consensus mechanism that suits its own scenario. Project value with unique application scenarios + exclusive consensus mechanism > Project value with unique application scenarios > Project value of the first consensus mechanism > No innovative project value.
As I said before, all currency starting points are air coins. Bitcoin’s air coin stage is a utopian ideal country, and its iconic event is a pizza exchange. Its narrow application scenario appeared between 2014 and 9.4 of 2017, mainly in the dark network to be currency, the flagic event is 9.4 of 2017 that made 80% of the original bitcoin circulated from the dark network to the Open Net. The core turning point of its broad application scenario will be the formal adoption of the Nasdaq Bakkt digital currency exchange, which will mean that Bitcoin truly becomes “digital gold.”
Ethereum is the world’s first distributed global computer, which is the operating system token. Why shift from POW to POS mechanism is because the operating system behavior should be infinitely close to free to bring about a large-scale circulation of value. A unique algorithmic mechanism is used in a unique application scenario, and a consensus is formed.
There are also three special digital currencies generated during the same period, one is Dash, the other is Zcash, and the last one is IOTA. Both Dashi and Zcash are white papers released in 2014. The technology of both digital currencies is improved on the basis of Bitcoin, and the application scenarios are almost the same — all are privacy anonymous. It is also because Bitcoin’s reputation began to rise, and Dark net’s transactions shifted from Bitcoin to Dash and Zcash.
Iota has a unique application scenario, the Internet of Things, and has its own unique technology Tangle. Its current main functions are micropayments with no fees and secure data transfer and data anchoring, with good scalability and partition fault tolerance. It is Eota who has the reputation of the global currency internet celebrity, from the initial round of investment has been held to today, has become a generation of legend.
These three digital currencies confirm the unique combination of unique scenes and unique technologies. As a global blockchain operating system, Ethereum is actually the status of digital silver. It was only to better identify the concept of using oil at the time. This is why the transfer fee in Ethereum is Gas. the reason. Because silver is the economic operating system of the ancient empire, gold is used more as a stored value currency. The silver of the machine intelligence empire is a globally distributed operating system.
This stage coincides with the Spanish Empire in the human world and the Chinese Ming Dynasty. It is also the emergence of Ethereum that opened the previous round of bull market. The core reason is that ICO brought the incremental market of digital currency, and a large demographic dividend poured into the blockchain digital currency.
In fact, the big bull market in 2015–2017 is the result of the competition from the Ethereum to gradually form the competition of the underlying operating system public chain. Finally ran out of three: Ethereum, EOS and wave field.
In June 17th EOS began to raise funds. Laomao said this in 2017: there are mainly three opportunities to invest in digital currency, bitcoin in 2013, Ethereum in 2015 and EOS in 2017. BM is a legend. In 2014, it made the world’s first decentralized exchange BTS with its original graphene technology, which reached the second-order transaction speed. However, after being cleared out of the community, a second project, Steemit, was made. It also proposed an innovative model of “shareholder evaluation, system reward”, which attracted a lot of eyeballs and popularity in the short term. But this system is too easy to cheat, BM left the project in 2017 and officially founded EOS.
The accumulation of BM for EOS emergence is the unique application scenario and the unique consensus mechanism that I mentioned earlier, the third layer of competitiveness that emerged — the unique 2C end product. As the earliest decentralized exchange in the world, BTS is very easy to understand its 2C-end type, and the front-end as a web version and dAPP integrates transaction and wallet functions, which is a major innovation. It is this combination that has accumulated early popularity for BM. Steemit’s technology has not been extensively innovated, but its use scene is very unique, and it is also the earliest decentralized content platform. It also has a unique 2C end product type.
In fact, I prefer to say that EOS is a representative of the 2.5-generation blockchain. The dPOS mechanism used by EOS is the super node as its consensus mechanism. The essence of a super node is a coalition chain, but it is not a designated node, but a node randomly generated by a mechanism. However, this alliance chain not only transmits information and value in only 21 super nodes, but also goes to a wider range of C-end user nodes through the community governance model.
The practical significance here is that ETH has not been able to make applications appear on a large scale in 2017 due to the defects of the existing speed, so the emergence of EOS comes. I think EOS has sacrificed full decentralization in the impossible triangle of blockchain to increase speed. It is an important part of the development of the entire blockchain, but it must not be the ultimate form. To be precise, it is a transitional underlying operating system public chain, similar to SAAS in the Internet era. This also confirms the full name of its name: Enterprise Operation System.
EOS and BM did the right thing at the right place at the right time, with historical inevitability and historical contingency. As of today, because of higher speed and lower cost, EOS has also found its own narrow application scenario, which is gambling betting. Gambling is really part of humanity, but it is only a small part. The ultimate development of mankind requires positive factors that are positive for the warmth. At present, I have not seen the possibility that EOS will generate the next round of generalized application scenarios. After all, no matter how a SAAS system evolves, it is difficult to become Android or IOS, but as a big IP it will exist for a long time.
The wave field is very special, no matter its opportunity to occur or its evolutionary way. It is precisely because the wave field is the largest air coin project well known in the world of blockchain, which in turn has led to the formation of a “conceptual consensus” on the wave field in the blockchain world — the king of the altcoin.
And Sun Yuchen is very diligent, and his ideas and positioning are also very clear, and he is very good at avoiding weaknesses. In the shortest possible time, change an air coin to a digital currency with technical strength, vision and imagination. The core turning point was the full purchase of BitTorrent, a decentralized content distribution protocol project that changed the world’s perception of the wavefield.
But the reason why the wave field is worse than EOS is that it only produced a “conceptual consensus”. As time goes by, if there is no way to find a narrow application scenario that really belongs to the wave field, the pseudo-consensus will be gradually defeated.
“There is only one core of all the underlying operating system public chain competition: the application layer ecology generated in this operating system will eventually fall on the developer. We can see if the underlying operating system public chain can continue to move forward depend on the attitude of technology developers to this operating system.”
Among all current operating system public chains, I am most optimistic about Ethereum. Most people don’t understand the true value of Ethereum. This is also the broad application scenario that I think Ethereum will eventually go through -developing standards and distribution agreements, which are global decentralized computers.
The issuance of assets through ERC20 is not the purpose of Ethereum, but a narrow application scenario generated during the evolution process. However, the various valuable agreement standards of Ethereum were completely ignored in the previous round of bull market, such as ERC721 series and ERC1400 series. When Ethereum technology gradually turned to POS, we will see a large number of projects relying on the Ethereum distribution agreement. Once the stage of setting standards and distributing agreements is reached first, developers will gather them in large numbers to form economies of scale, which will cause other operating systems to comply with their standards, making it difficult to form a long-term stable ecosystem based on their own consensus. After all, the motivation for developers to move from familiar development environments to unfamiliar development environments is very weak.
Back to today, we did not see a large number of various Internet operating systems, windows, IOS, Linux, etc. in the computer era, Android and IOS in the era of mobile smartphones. At that time, the largest mobile operating system Symbian had disappeared into sight. So, in the end, we will only see no more than three underlying operating system public links coexist. In the end, the operating system winners are the one who form the broadest application scenarios fastest. In the era of blockchain, the earliest form of digital currency formed a barrier, and the developer’s ecology is its wall.
During this period, it was as if the human world had passed the empire of the Japanese Empire and the Qing Dynasty of China, and finally ushered in the third phase of the digital currency world.
The 9.4 event in 2017 led to the birth of a third important digital currency — the stable USDT. The counter currency is the legal currency. No one would tend to use BTC and ETH to buy Iphone and other household items because they all have some volatility. Stabilizing coins is the easiest way to help all people join the blockchain world and have lower volatility to form a stable buying relationship.
The stable currency is also a currency in nature, and it also needs to comply with the three stages of the currency. So, when you think about it in reverse, you will understand that stable currency is a market that is easy to defend and difficult to attack. The emergence of the USDT happened to solve the problem of having no way to purchase digital currency in the world after the 9.4 incident. Because of the rigid demand, the perfect solution of the air coin phase and the narrow application scenario was solved.
In 2018, we heard a variety of stable coins, such as GUSD, TUSD, DAI and so on. These stable coins are all based on regulatory needs, but this is also the case, they can only stay in the stage of air coin. On September 10, 2018, New York trust company Gemini and blockchain startup Paxos were also approved by the New York Financial Services Authority to issue digitally cryptocurrencies GUSD and PAX anchored in US dollars under government supervision. They are all based on Ethereum and are linked to the US dollar in a 1:1 ratio. Unlike the stable currency that anchored the US dollar before, this is the first officially announced stable currency. The previous stable currency did not have a government endorsement.
Here, Zhao Dongdong’s view on the stable currency is borrowed. Based on Paul Krugman’s “Impossible Triangle” theory put forward in 1999, he believes that the temporary success of USDT is to give up the independence of monetary policy. The child is handed over to the bank and may be killed at any time. The aim is to get a high degree of liquidity and anchor the “stability” of the dollar.
USDT basically achieved this point. GUSD is learning USDT, and now I don’t see the possibility of success. The core is still in the application scenario. And what about other so-called “stabilized coins”? If you want to be independent and want to “stable”, then you must give up free flow. However, the “stable currency” that cannot flow freely and has no liquidity becomes a counterfeit currency. If you want to be “independent” and want to flow freely, you must give up “stability.” The final result, “Stabilized Coin” itself becomes a “pseudo-proposition.”
In March 19, the two most important news was that JP Morgan was going to issue JPMcoin, and the other was that Facebook was going to issue coins. The specific news of these two digital currencies is not known, but it is basically certain that the two types are closer to the stable currency issued by the state of the alliance chain. It is only one that is specifically for banks such as the big B-end to make the chain of stable coins, and the other is to send a stable currency for their users to purchase the services within the product.
Both JPMcoin and FBcoin are just historical footnotes and are destined to disappear into history. But just like the emergence of EOS, they are born in response to the needs of the times, helping more people to popularize blockchain and digital currency knowledge, and help more people enter the blockchain world.
But in the end, the world does not need too many stable coins. There are 233 countries (regions) in the world, more than 170 currencies, how many kinds have you heard? The currency that a person really needs to have in addition to his own country’s may currently be the US dollar. Most people don’t need more than one stable currency in most scenarios. This is why the stable currency is easy to defend and difficult to attack.
But I don’t think the final state of stable currency will be USDT. This stage is like the word war I,II. After all the countries have their own legal currency, they will eventually move to the next stage.
IPFS, the interstellar file system, is actually a decentralization agreement that emerged in May of May. It has the same ambitious goal as the name, connecting the world’s computer equipment, building a point-to-point distributed file system, removing the centralized server, and letting everyone share the dividends of the blockchain development.
It was not until 2017 that IPFS Labs issued Filecoin as a token. The core mode is that the storage miner provides hard disk space to store data for the user to earn the replacement currency, and the miner searches for the user to find and read the data to earn the replacement currency, and the user pays the token for the storage and retrieval of the data. Each miner is free to quote in the market, fully competitive, and users choose the best. Filecoin is a typical data rewarding application public chain.
Storage is one of the most important application scenarios in the entire network, but we have not seen Filecoin’s main net online, so now selling IPFS mining machines can be regarded as a scam. If even the specific algorithm does not come out, then the mining machine is just a bunch of cheap hard drives.
IPFS, like BitTorrent, is a decentralized protocol with its own technology, but the final usage scenario is not working. BitTorrent, as a decentralized content distribution protocol, does have a lot of benefits, but the emergence of 5G makes it unnecessary for people to cut files for distribution because the speed is fast enough. What is the specific usage scenario of BTT? At present, everyone has not seen it. Similarly, what is the specific usage scenario of Filecoin? No one has seen it.
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If you can’t find a real and effective rigid landing scene, you can’t form a digital currency economy closed loop. Even if the technology goes through, Filecoin will eventually disappear into people’s horizons.
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Most of the application-type public chains now do not understand the meaning of their own scenarios or value flows, and even do not produce value requirements that are different from the Internet era. First of all, regardless of the specific circumstances of the technology, there is no unique consensus mechanism generated according to its unique application scenario. The core application scenario is not running, it is even less likely to produce a unique 2C-end application product, and finally only stop at the air coin stage.
The underlying application-type public chain that can be ran out in the future must exist like water and air. No one perceives, but no one can break away. It is the bottom of the entire machine’s intelligent civilization. What kind of application scenario will take the lead in generating large-scale value transfer, thus becoming the most valuable data reward application public chain in the blockchain? I think it is a map public chain.
Google is currently the world’s highest market capitalization of Internet companies, peaking close to 900 billion US dollars, 90% of revenue comes from advertising, mainly from three aspects: Google search, Google Maps and Youtube. Because of the rise of the entire mobile side, in fact, the search and most of the ads are based on the map as the entrance to the underlying traffic. There are more than 1 million apps on Google Maps, and there are more than 300,000 apps on Gaode Navigation and Baidu Maps. 80% of the apps we use now use maps as the underlying protocol.
More than one-third of global websites now have Google Maps, and every time we open one of them, we call the map once. What is the daily number of hits on Google Maps worldwide? Nearly 1 trillion times. This means that each person clicks on the map more than 100 times directly or indirectly every day. This does not include the number of hits using Gaode navigation or Baidu maps like China where Google Maps cannot be used.
Maps are a rigid requirement that everyone uses every day. Every time we click on a website or application that contains Google Maps, Google can receive $2–7. In addition to the use of Google Maps itself by C-side users, Google Maps receives an average of $50 million per day.
And Google currently only covers the space of 3 billion people living in the world based on satellites. In the 3 billion people, there are only 1.25 billion people who can update their data. Only 500 million people can be updated frequently. These data mainly come from developed countries such as the United States, Canada, Europe, and Japan and South Korea.
The core reason is that the annual update rate of such countries is very low, about 2%-3% per year. However, taking China’s Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou,Shenzhen as an example, the annualized update rate is about 20%-30%. If you go to third- and fourth-tier cities or other developing countries, the annualized update rate will go to over 50%. Relying on a centralized company to update data is basically no drama.
What should I do with the blockchain? First of all, you can protect your privacy 100% by technology, instead of constantly taking your behavior data for analysis like Facebook and Google Maps today. In 2018, Google Maps has been penalized by the European Union for more than 6 billion euros because of violations of privacy regulations. On the other hand, as long as you are willing to contribute various types of map data, you can get token rewards and form a “live map”. The final payment is for advertisers, commercial organizations and APP/dAPP, thus forming a closed loop of the token economy.
Without blockchain maps, it is impossible to generate WeChat, Momo Tantan, Dianping, Ctrip, Meituan, Uber, Airbnb and other applications in the blockchain world. Because these blockchain applications are not likely to be generated based on a centralized map protocol, they become a pseudo-proposition. The data reward application public chain with the most extensive application scenarios will become the underlying infrastructure of the blockchain world, become the killer application public chain of the blockchain, and complete the last piece of the digital currency world.
If you usually use Gaode navigation and Baidu map, you know that these software can be used for taxis, driving, and the same search function of the public comment, but you will not really use maps based on these scenes. This is also the huge difference between the map of the Internet era and the map of the blockchain era. As I wrote before, “I am blunt, Mr. Li Guoqing’s first step has been doomed to the final outcome”: The huge difference between the blockchain and the Internet is that the Internet is a thin protocol, and the value is captured by the application layer. The blockchain is a fat protocol, and the value will be captured by the protocol.
The genes of the Internet determine the value and type of the final product. That’s why 80% of mobile apps are based on map protocols, and the map itself captures very little value. But the blockchain world will be completely reversed, and the map public chain will capture the vast majority of the value flows that are now based on spatial data on our phones.
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Maps are the only ones with a just-needed application scenario, and because of their uniqueness, they need a unique consensus protocol to support, and ultimately can produce a unique 2C-end product public chain. Here, application scenarios, consensus protocols, and application layer products are organically unified. Because it is just needed, the token can generate large-scale circulation and form a value increase.
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The blockchain’s Google Maps will not be the same as the Internet era, just to support the bottom of Google applications, because most of the value is captured by the agreement, the final blockchain of Google Maps will become Google itself. In the blockchain world, data will be encrypted and distributed, so all kinds of application software generated on the Internet based on maps have become a data layer on the map public chain, and distributed through a decentralized map protocol. Similar to the public comment, Ctrip where to go, the US group takeaway, Uber, Airbnb data will be aggregated and distributed on the map public chain through the mobile phone node encryption.
Now BTC, ETH network is based on the PC computer to generate distributed nodes, one is related to its consensus mechanism, and second, there is no need to generate mobile phone nodes. However, maps are closely related to space and human mobile behavior, and mobile device nodes are inevitably generated. This will also be the biggest difference between a true map public chain and any other type of public chain: the establishment of a global decentralized network based on intelligent mobile device nodes. Mobile phones, VR devices, AR devices, drones, electric vehicles, etc. will all be part of their network. 2019 is the 5G first year, we have seen the map public chain as the underlying data reward application-type public chain sprout.
A blockchain project is equivalent to a country, and its digital currency is the sovereign currency of the country. Xiao Feng, the chairman of Wanxiang Blockchain, said: Because in the world of blockchain, applications will form huge tails. Then a public chain can generate 100 million dApps, and each dApp creates a value of $100,000, which is a $10 trillion economy. The blockchain killer application must be different from the Internet and is a common entry point for capturing value. It must be a low-level application-type public chain, and this killer application is the map public chain, and its final value should be equal to the sum of all the public chains and dApp values generated based on the LBS protocol.
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Hyperion is currently the only public link project in the world that I have seen the opportunity to become a blockchain Google. In the next two years we will see the rise of HYN.
Through the entire blockchain that took place ten years before the resumption, we can clearly see the context of the entire digital currency world and what will happen in the future. The transition from the bear market to the lowest point of the bull market will be completed in 2018–2019. We have seen four meta-digital currency types in the blockchain digital currency world.
I don’t think that the future is a world of thousands of chains. The world of blockchain will be more competitive than the Internet world. In the Internet phase, because of the critical point of the increase in its marginal cost, it has caused bottlenecks, and its product type cannot exceed the level of 1 billion users. For example, Facebook has 2 billion users (including a large number of robot accounts) and WeChat has 1.25 billion users. It is for this reason that there will be different product competition in the same field. It seems that in the IM communication software, Facebook will be featured in the European and American non-markets, WeChat’s main global Chinese market, Line’s main Japanese-Korean and Southeast Asian markets. The cardinality of the user community can support differentiated products.
But in the blockchain, a bottom-level public chain can eventually reach more than 7 billion people or even 10 billion people. In the end, we will see that the four types of digital currency, such as stored-value tokens, operating system tokens, stable coins, and data-rewarding tokens, become the bottom layer of the entire machine’s intelligent civilization. Based on these four digital currency currencies, 50–150 public chains and hundreds of millions of dApps are produced worldwide. Why do you only see so few public chains in the end? Looking at the application software installed on your mobile phone, you will probably know how many public chains will be retained in the end.
Why is the entire digital currency world now in a bear market: on the one hand because of the collapse of the pseudo-consensus, and on the other hand because the technology is on the eve of the breakthrough bottleneck, many public chains are still facing a large number of papers from the paper to the laboratory, from the laboratory to the open source. The difficulties need to be solved. Even if you walk through, where is the application scenario? As many blockchains have said, the current digital currency is still an unprecedented social experiment, and we are still waiting for the blockchain killer application to land. In addition, 5G as the intelligent hardware foundation of the blockchain is coming soon. Only after 5G is officially commercialized, the hardware facilities can carry the big outbreak of the blockchain world.
In addition, the government’s policy on the blockchain will affect the development of the blockchain world. I think the most likely thing is that the government acts as a central agency to endorse and issue the national digital currency, the national stable currency. In this way, there is no need to form policy supervision, and most problems can be solved by forming chain supervision through state-based stable coins. In the future, we will see a situation where the fully decentralized stable currency and the national stable currency coexist for a long time.
Returning to the upcoming bull market, its official rise will depend on four iconic events:
First, the final approval of the Nasdaq digital currency exchange, Bakkt. This means that a large amount of legal currency flows into the digital currency market through regulated channels, thus helping Bitcoin complete its final broad application scenario as “Digital Gold”.
Second, the Ethereum POS upgrade was successful and began to develop standards and distribute agreements. Complete its broad application scenario as “Global Distributed Computing”. Thereby helping more agreements rather than assets.
Third, the stable currency decouples the US dollar, using technology to form chain supervision, forming a broader liquidity and bringing more legal currency inflow. (On-going)
Fourth, the blockchain killer application public chain was born, which led a large number of new investors to enter the market to understand the blockchain.
The map public chain is the blockchain killer application, because the world’s “demand
consensus” will drive a large number of new users into the blockchain world. On the other hand, the beginning of the previous round of bull market is also the key point for Ethereum to distribute assets through ICO, which has led to a large number of investors entering the market as well.
There are two technological evolutions through the map public chain: one is to generate a large number of mobile phone (smart hardware) edge nodes, and the other is to generate a space-related consensus mechanism. And its unique application scenario will generate a lot of space data, which really helps other application public links and dAPP landing. Finally, with decentralized map service distribution network and a highly unified consumer base application of space consensus protocols, a large number of new users will enter the digital currency world.
“When Hyperion finds its narrow application scenario, it will become the blockchain killer application public chain, thus driving the blockchain digital currency bull market explosion. In the future, there are only a total of four opportunities to invest in digital currencies: 13 years of BTC, 15 years of ETH, 17 years of EOS, and 19 years of HYN.”
In addition to the Hyperion map public chain, there are some unique scenarios where the data-contributing application public chain will break out. Although the application scenario is not as extensive as a map, it can solve the unique problem in the corresponding scenario. For example, the language public chain, dAPP related to language learning, language translation and language content in the future will rely on the language public chain and may also generate corresponding intelligent hardware to drive its outbreak, such as the transformation of the translation machine of Keda Xunfei into language data input mining machine. As I said before, the underlying data-reward-type application public chain must be in the machine intelligence civilization like water and air. You can’t feel its existence, but you can’t live without it.
As these underlying data rewards apply to the public chain, we will see the explosion and the whole picture of the blockchain world. Nowadays, most of the blockchain teams are faced with the pain because they believe in blockchain technology, so the bitcoin and Ethereum that were fundraised have not been sold, resulting in a significant reduction in the amount of funds raised in the bear market. On the contrary, the air coin sold a large amount of bitcoin and the Ethereum squandered, forming a situation in which “bad money drives out good money”. An excellent project team is facing both market fluctuations and the pressure of technical iterations. This should not be the case.
In the future, this situation will change radically. The blockchain project fundraising will need to indicate in the early white paper the number of four types of digital currency that need to be raised: Bitcoin is used as a stored value against risk, and Ethereum is mortgaged to the network as an operating system token. The distribution agreement is to be developed in accordance with the application scenario. The daily expenses planned by the team should be used and the purpose of use should be to raise stable coins such as USDT or national stable currency.
The HYN that recruits Hyperion is a call-to-space data distribution protocol that is mortgaged to the network for the application scenario generated by the map.
In this case, the government can conduct chain supervision on the national stable currency. If you are raising USDT, ordinary investors can see Bitcoin and Ethereum and Hyperion HYN are pledged on the network. You can know the progress of this project by paying attention to the monthly withdrawal of USDT. At this time, the difference between ordinary investors and institutional investors will become increasingly blurred, and air coins will become increasingly difficult to exist.
Finally, allow me to end the article with this following paragraph and encourage all the pioneers:
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Don’t be afraid of the dark, and don’t lose faith because of pain. What’s past is prologue. Believe that those brave, fearless, sincere, kind people bring warmth through the distant glimmer. After the tempest, the future will come.
