Harvey, Amplified by Climate Change, Threatens Texas

Source: HANDOUT, AFP/Getty Images

Hurricane Harvey is currently barreling towards the coast of Texas, picking up steam as it moves across the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. People are evacuating, multiple governors have declared states of emergency, and weather Twitter is shook.

Harvey has rapidly intensified in the Gulf, where waters are up to 2°C above average. The storm is projected to reach Category 3 status by the time it makes landfall, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHS), which would make it the first major hurricane to hit the US in over a decade.

Climate change amplifies the three primary hazards associated with hurricanes: extreme winds, rainfall, and storm surge.

Source: Climate Signals

The storm is expected to make landfall near Corpus Christi, Texas tonight and stall over the state through the weekend. NHS predicts rain accumulations of up to 20 inches through Wednesday, with nearly 30 inches expected in some parts of the middle and upper Texas coast.

Storm surge could be up to 12 feet in some locations.

“The heaviest rainfall in Texas has been associated with landfalling tropical storms,” said Dr. John W. Nielsen-Gammon, professor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M University and the Texas state climatologist. “In 1979, thunderstorms associated with Tropical Storm Claudette dropped 42 inches of rain in 24 hours just south of Houston. While most storms won’t be that exceptional, climate change is making even heavier rainfall possible.”

The Gulf Coast, which houses nearly 30 oil refineries, is in the path of heavy rainfall and “potentially catastrophic flooding.” Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has declared a state of disaster for 30 Texas counties.

Climate Signals explains the science behind the hurricane’s rapid intensification and expected flooding. Key points:

  • Harvey intensified rapidly in the Gulf of Mexico, aided by sea surface temperatures up to 2°C above average relative to the temperature average from 1961–1990.
  • Increasing surface land and ocean temperatures are increasing the potential energy available to passing storms.
  • Sea level rise, combined with coastal storms, has increased the risk of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially along the Gulf of Mexico.
  • From 1963 to 2012, 88 percent of fatalities from Atlantic tropical cyclones occurred in water-related incidents; storm surge caused 49 percent and freshwater floods due to heavy rainfall caused 27 percent.
  • The storm-related losses attributed to climate change along the Texas shoreline are likely to increase to up to $222 million per year on average by 2030.
  • $20.9 billion in Texas coastal property is likely to be flooded at high tide by 2030.

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