2021 NBA Draft Talk — Brandon Boston, Jr.

Brandon Boston Jr (BJ) didn’t have a particularly great season last year. Coming in, some people had him as a potential top five pick in the NBA draft. He was talked up as a great shot-maker and we all saw the flashes at Sierra Canyon:

But, you look at his shooting percentages from this past year at Kentucky and become really confused. There are context to those numbers though and the good thing is that BJ is only 19. There are plenty of flashes to go off of to bet that this guy will still be a good NBA player. Let’s dive in.

Offense

I still think BJ will be a big time shooter in the pros. The beginning of his freshman season was horrendous in terms of shot-making (he shot 5–32 from three in his first seven games in non-conference play). Because of the circumstances of this season and the college adjustment, I’m willing to give him a pass. He clearly has good form, his free throw indicators are good (78.5% from the line) and in conference play, he shot 37.3% from three. He can stroke it and should be able to be used in various different ways off-ball:

With his size at 6'7, BJ should be able to get shots off with ease and will be a credible space off-ball. He shouldn’t be one-dimensional either and I expect him to be able to be used off movement as well. I’m super confident that he will be a good shooter.

Shooting is the way that BJ will win. He was billed as a shot-making wing coming in and while he didn’t totally deliver that at Kentucky, he did show flashes:

These pull-ups really showcase how his length will help him. He can just shoot over guys easily.

These are awkward but they do show that space creation that BJ showed us at lower levels.

This is how he wins!! Shot-making. Shot-making. Shot-making. Just to preface, I am not saying these are direct comps so please don’t jump on me. But, BJ’s path to stardom is the same as guys like Paul George and Brandon Ingram. They use their length, size, and balance to shoot shots that can’t really be contested. There is a nonzero chance that BJ can get to that level and I think that should be taken into account when looking at players to draft.

So you’re thinking “Love these flashes but how did this guy have a sub 45% TS?” Well, the thing about BJ is as he is right now, he is super weak. Players at the NCAA level are a lot stronger than those in high school (obviously) and it really bothered him. I thought his three point shooting was mostly fine even with the slow start but this really shows up in his low two point percentage (38.4%). He wasn’t good at the rim this year and shot 50% there (32.6% Ast’d) but was just horrible from anywhere else in two point range (28.8%).

When he got to the rim, the results were mixed:

The contact always bothered him and it all seems strength related. Any type of contact would just knock him off his spot. We also see that when he tries to create for himself in the midrange:

As you can see here, the crossover works. BJ creates the space but Springer (who some call the best POA defender in the draft) recovers because he is so good and BJ isn’t strong enough to get in to his shooting motion cleanly.

The strength is clearly an issue. But the good thing about that is that it is fixable. Like BJ clearly has the shot-making talent and the space creation. He just needs to get stronger and with the NBA’s strength and conditioning program, I think it is a good bet that will happen. That cleans up so much of his issues on the offensive end. He doesn’t have to turn into Giannis but just needs to get functionally stronger. Again, not direct comps but we see with guys like KD and Brandon Ingram that you can still look like a stick but get strong enough to where your scoring traits will shine (moreso BI because KD was just so good that it didn’t matter). I don’t think BJ is gonna be an awesome finisher in the league but he should be able to get good enough.

BJ isn’t a proactive passer from what I’ve seen but he has shown some ability to make passes off of his scoring gravity:

I think that’s all you really need him to do. He’s not gonna be a primary initiator. His path to stardom is that 20–24 PPG scorer that gives you like four assists a game because he can attract attention and hit the open man. That’s good enough for him as a wing.

Defense

I didn’t see much talk about BJ’s defense coming in so I was personally pleasantly surprised from what I saw. I don’t think he’ll be a stopper but I do think he has the potential to be average to above average and if he hits his offensive ceiling, he will be an All-Star. You do see him have his struggles because I mean what 19 year old doesn’t:

He may get blown by sometimes:

But he is very active on defense, had a 2.5% steal rate, and has shown some really fun possessions on ball:

John Petty Jr is a really good college player and Sharife Cooper is probably a lottery pick. BJ slides with them perfectly. These were some of my favorite possessions watching BJ. I think he’s a willing defender and I think his length can make a difference too at times:

Ultimately, his strength does hold him back on defense as well:

Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer are NBA prospects but they are smaller than BJ and they’re just bullying him. The strength is a big factor on his defense as well. I’m more bullish that his strength can get to a high enough level to be impactful on offense but I am a little iffy for his defense. NBA wings and guards are really strong. But, if he can get to a decent enough level strength wise, his length will be able to compensate which can make him into an above average defender.

Overall Conclusion

BJ Boston’s avenue to All-Star player is pretty clear to me. Get strong enough so that his offensive and defensive tools can shine. He could also probably stand to improve his handle some. But, I think that is a good bet to make. It’s not like you’re asking him to get more shake. He can defintely build up strength. I think that his bad season may have helped his future outlook now though. He probably is going to go to a team in the 20s who won’t really feed him too many self-creation looks and he will be able to build up his ancillary skills and get stronger. Then, we could see him potentially explode year 3 or 4. I haven’t dived in too deep with every prospect so I can’t properly rate him but I wouldn’t be mad if someone took him late lottery. The potential is there. He is solidly, a first rounder for me though.