2021 NBA Draft Talk — Davion Mitchell
From what I’ve seen from NBA draft discourse on the TL, Davion Mitchell has skyrocketed on boards after an impressive tournament run with Baylor. Jared Butler was the NBA prospect that I had my eyes on at Baylor so personally, I was surprised to see Mitchell’s name pop up so much. But with a tremendous shooting improvement this year, he has everyone’s eye. I decided to do a dive into as much film as I can find of him online (slide me your synergy login PLEASE) to see what he brings to the table.
Shooting
The first thing that stands out when watching Davion Mitchell is the pull-up shooting. The jump was kind of wild for a guy who is shooting sub 70% from the line for his career and only shot 32.4% overall on three pointers in the 2019–2020 season. But, Davion was one of the best shooters off the dribble in the country last year (Kispert’s number is ridiculous):
Davion’s balance is incredible off the dribble. It’s amazing to see him make a move and stop on a dime to rise and fire. He does it every game consistently too. When I was clipping some of his shots to showcase his prowess, I had to stop because it was just so many. The guy put on an incredible shooting display this year:
Overall, Davion shot just under 45% from three this year on almost five attempts a game which is good volume for the college game. Davion’s balance helps him on catch and shoot looks as well:
His balance and some of his moves remind me a lot of Donovan Mitchell (not a direct comp though, I think Donovan is more explosive and has more length). It’s clear that he has studied him a lot. That balance gives me hope that the shooting improvement is real. It is concerning that he shot 64% from the line this year (career low) and that the jump was so dramatic. But I’m willing to buy in on him being an above average shooter in the NBA because of his balance, form, and volume. He’s not going to be Donovan as a shooter but he should be able to be a credible spacer off-ball and potentially bring some pull-up equity.
Rim Pressure
Because of his shooting ability and his first step, Davion showcased the ability in college to get to the rim any time he wanted. Mitchell doesn’t have an elite handle but he is so explosive and quick after he makes his moves that it doesn’t matter. He hits his move whether it’s a crossover or in and out and then explodes to the basket. It’s impressive to watch:
Mitchell is pretty good at finishing once he gets there too. Per Barttorvik, Mitchell shot 63% at the rim with only 18.6% of his looks assisted. The percentage of his looks assisted is the most impressive part to me. Mitchell is able generate the vast majority of his looks for himself and is converting at a very efficient rate. Because of his mix of rim and three point potency, Mitchell had a very efficient year with a 61.3% true shooting and 61.3% effective field goal percentage. His ability to get the rim will do wonders for whatever team that drafts him. He should be able to slot next to a big primary creator where he can excel off the advantages that they create for him and also create his own.
Passing
Mitchell is also a very credible passer which makes him the full package as a secondary creator. I didn’t see many manipulative reads so I don’t see him having primary creator equity but he is able to make the basic reads and also provide some flair every now and then:
This is exactly what you want from your secondary creator. With the top level players in the league, defenses want to get the ball out of their hands and let the lesser players make decisions. When you have secondary creators surrounding your high level creator that can dribble, make good decisions, and finish at the rim, your offense has the potential to be amazing. Mitchell with his 5.5 assists a game (27.7 AST%) this past year fits the bill.
Offensive Conclusion
I think the only worry for me with Davion is that the shooting may not be real. I don’t think he is a 45% overall three point shooter and 40% off the dribble from three but even if it comes down to 35% or 36% overall with good volume, he is still a positive offensive player because of his passing ability and ability to put pressure on the rim. I think the more interesting question for me is what is his ceiling. I think the Donovan Mitchell impact is unlikely but I guess we can’t necessarily rule it out. Donovan Mitchell had a pretty big jump in three point shooting in college as well (a better free throw percentage though). Donovan’s wingspan is massive though for his size and he was a couple years younger than Davion is now so he had a lot more time to grow. If Davion is really an awesome pull-up shooter, he could be come an all-star. But, I think I’d expect him to be a really good secondary creator playing off of a high level creator. Think of him as the other guard with a guy like Luka Doncic or Trae Young. I think he could really excel there.
Defense
Davion Mitchell was the 2021 Naismith Defensive Player of the Year. He’s a stud on that end as a disruptive point of attack defender. I mean this stat is absurd:
He just puts tremendous pressure on ball handlers when they bring the ball up the court:
I think from day one he will slot in as a good on ball defender. His balance shows up on that end for him as he moves his feet so well and he’s incredibly strong. He’s not going to bring the same type of impact that he could in college because of the way the NBA is but I think he will be a positive on that end.
Some of my worries with his defense though is his size. Because of his size, I don’t think he’s going to be super impactful as an off-ball defender and he does sometimes get bullied by bigger guards:
I still think he’ll be able to hold his own at times because he is just so strong and quick but that is something to monitor as he gets to the league. There is still a role for him as POA defender but he will lose some impact because he isn’t as versatile defensively as some other guys. The league is trending towards big creators and I could see Mitchell having some trouble with them at times.
Ultimately though, I think Mitchell can slot in as a good point of attack guy in the regular season with maybe some diminished impact in the playoffs as the margins get smaller. He’ll never be a liability and that is a great sign from him with the positive value he can bring on the offensive end.
Overall Conclusion
I think Davion is worth a first round pick. I can’t say where in the first round yet because I am still diving into guys to make my ultimate board but I think the value is there. A realistic outcome for Davion is to bring value as a 3 and D POA guard that can create off the dribble for himself, attack closeouts, and make good decisions. That’s valuable. In today’s NBA, you need as many guys as you can that can shoot, dribble, pass, and defend. Davion checks those boxes. I think his best fit is with a high level creator. For example, Luka, Giannis, Harden, Cade, Trae, LaMelo etc. He can play off those guys and occasionally take some pressure of them. He can also take on those harder guard assignments so that these guys can guard the easier player and provide some off-ball value. He’s older so not as much room for growth as other prospects but I think we do know that he is going to be solid and that matters. In addition, we’ve also seen older guards progress some in the league (Malcolm Brogdon, Devonte’ Graham, Derrick White) . I think that bodes well for Davion. I love his game and can’t wait to see where he ends up in the league.
