2021 NBA Draft Talk — Keon Johnson

Keon Johnson had a solid season at the University of Tennessee as a freshman on a team that had no real creation outside of him and Jaden Springer (another talented freshman). Neither are true primaries so it was interesting to see them create offense. Keon had a 26.8% usage rate so he was given a lot of possessions to work. There were a lot of intriguing flashes from him so let’s dive into what makes him a lottery level prospect.

Offense

The most intriguing skill that stood out to me while watching Keon was his self-creation. At Tennessee, he was very adept at utilizing his size and athleticism to get into the paint and finish:

He doesn’t have the strongest handle but he was able to consistently get two feet in the paint using his handle and burst. Once he got there, he used his size and jumping ability (NBA combine record 48 inch vert!) to shoot over defenders. His touch in these situations was pretty impressive as well. He finished the year shooting 42.1% on non-rim 2s and only 24.4% of those attempts were assisted. Especially late in the season for Tennessee, this was one of the best options for them in terms of scoring. Give Keon the ball in advantageous situations and let him go to work:

It is really encouraging to see this type of self creation at Keon’s age because it makes you wonder what he can possibly look like when he’s 23, 25, or 27. Development isn’t linear but when looking at prospects, you are looking at the flashes.

Keon was also able to get all the way to rim at times but with mixed results. He only shot 57.6% at the rim and 45.3% of those were assisted:

Tre Mann is by no means a defensive stopper but it was good to see Keon leverage his driving ability to get to the rim. The finish was just awful. Keon isn’t weak at all but I think a lot of his finishing issues did stem from a lack of strength. With NBA strength training, I think he can get stronger and be able to use that vertical he has to become a better finisher in the league.

Keon isn’t just a one dimensional offensive player though and should be able to play really well off-ball. He should be able to attack closeouts:

He misses the layup but this is a really good example of him using his speed to get by defenders. Also, with that athletic ability, he should be a terror in transition:

Beautiful in and out dribble to explode and get the rim finish. This didn’t happen as much as I expected at Tennessee but if Keon can get to a team that really likes to run, watch out.

Keon is also a really good cutter and moves very well without the basketball:

The self-creation, the off-ball ability, the athleticism. Based off of that, you would think this is a slam dunk pick right? Well, the thing with Keon is that he hasn’t flashed much ability to shoot from deep. In today’s NBA, that is basically a death sentence unless you can get to Jimmy Butler or DeMar DeRozan levels of rim pressure and ability to get to the line. I don’t think that is outside of Keon’s realm of possibilities but that is an extremely high bar to hit. You want him to be able to shoot.

This past year, he took less than 2 three point attempts a game and shot 27.1% from there. In addition, he only shot around 70% from the free throw line. You could see in games that he just wasn’t comfortable at all shooting from three:

With his touch though, I think it is possible that he could become an average shooter at least. He also flashed some improved form while working out for the draft:

I am not super confident in betting on him becoming a shooter in time but I do think it is possible and that combined with his other skills makes it a worthwhile bet in the lottery.

He has flashed some passing reads as well:

The charge doesn’t really matter to me but it is good to see him able to see the open man on the move and make those reads. I don’t think he’ll be a primary in the league but when he does create, he’ll have to be able to make at least some reads.

The biggest thing for Keon in the league at the offensive end is skill development. If he shoots, you can start to see his game come together. A guy who can attack closeouts and finish, cut off-ball, make reads off of closeouts, and self-create for himself. That’s a valuable offensive player next to a primary.

Defense

The defense is something you can really bet on Keon being good at in the league. The only question is how versatile can he be. He moves really well laterally and should be a strong point of attack defender:

When Tennessee played Florida though, Keon did get moved around a lot because of Tre Mann’s shiftiness and handle:

Tre’s crossover moves Keon easily and he gets to his spot for the foul. Tre did it consistently when Keon was on him. This does worry me when Keon has to go against initiators at level of like Trae Young who are so shifty and have elite handles. However, Keon still projects to be a really good defender.

He is disruptive off ball (2.5% STL rate & 2.0% BLK rate) and can create turnovers:

As he continues to get stronger, Keon should turn into a really good defender. The question is though will he be able to guard 3s as well. That would really increase his defensive value and allow for whatever team that drafts him to be able to have really interesting lineup combinations. His wingspan (6'7.25) is good for his size but isn’t something wild that would give him the ability to contest bigger players. That is something to monitor as he progresses in the league.

Conclusion

Keon is probably the most interesting prospect that I’ve dived into in depth so far. His range of outcomes is pretty wide. If he doesn’t shoot, he probably just becomes a defensive specialist that is a end of rotation guy. If he can shoot, you can see starter level outcomes for him with his mix of athleticism and defensive ability. If the skill development REALLY hits, you start to think about star level outcomes for him. Jimmy Butler is probably too high of outcome for him but what about DeMar DeRozan? He probably won’t be the finisher that DeMar is (56.2% from two point range in college) but he is a better bet to shoot and he has far better defensive outcomes than DeMar. This is not to say Keon is going to become DeMar but just to give a frame of reference of the level a guard has to hit to be a really good player if they don’t shoot well. Keon’s range is too uncertain for me to take him in the top half of the lottery but if you’re picking from 9–14, I would defintely take a swing on the upside. Teams like Charlotte (#11), San Antonio (#12), and Indiana (#13) should definitely take a look and take a swing on him. All those teams are short on talent and have really good environments for Keon to succeed in.