LaMelo Ball — The Hope for the Charlotte Hornets

LaMelo Ball is a Charlotte Hornet. Some Hornets fans had been speaking this into existence since the middle of last year:

There was still some backlash about the pick. A lot of people didn’t like his dad, believed he was all hype because of the coverage he got since he was 13, or were worried about his three point shooting and his defense (fair concerns before the season for sure). I personally was on the optimistic side. I believed that LaMelo was the most talented player in the draft and hoped that he would fall to us at three. The Hornets were a franchise starving for star talent and he was the best chance at it.

However, even with my most optimistic thoughts, I did not see LaMelo Ball becoming this good, this early. I thought his rookie year would be a rough one as he adjusted to the NBA game, especially amid a Global Pandemic and virtually no offseason. However, he has exceeded expectations. Lately, he has even been playing at almost an all-star level:

His play has given Hornet fans hope. He is the primary creator that teams look to build around and has a shot to be better than the best creator that the Hornets had in Kemba Walker (we still love you bro). Today, I want to dive into his progression this season, what makes him so good, and what he could potentially be in the future.

LaMelo’s best skill and the one that everyone raved about was his passing ability. It immediately translated. His feel for the game is on another level, especially for a 19 year old. Already, he probably has a case for being one of the ten best passers in the game. This could be me being a homer but I legitimately do think he has a case. You have LeBron, Luka, Jokic, and CP3 in the top tier but I think he has a case in that next tier. He’s a special passer:

LaMelo can make every pass in the book and he also has a flair for it. That’s what makes him so fun. The no-looks, the interesting passing angles, Melo is always looking for a flash play. He doesn’t just do it for the highlights though; his passes also make the game easier for his teammates. He makes the passes that other players may not make so that his teammates get the BEST shot available, not just a good shot.

This can get him in trouble some of the time so you may see some weird turnovers. His turnovers aren’t too bad overall for a young guard (2.8 turnovers a game, 17.1 TOV%, basketball reference) but the Hornets do turn it over more when he is on the floor (+4.2% in TOV%, cleaning the glass). But, that higher risk comes with higher reward as the Hornets shoot +1.9% in eFG% when he is on the floor which is in the 71st percentile (cleaning the glass).

LaMelo makes his teammates better. We’ve seen it with Miles Bridges. After not taking the step forward that Hornet fans wanted last year, Miles has seen his efficiency skyrocket with the addition of LaMelo. Currently, he has career highs in FG%, 3P%, eFG%, & TS%. Melo doesn’t deserve all the credit for this: Miles has improved himself and the coaching staff has put him in the positions to succeed. But without a doubt, Melo’s arrival has helped to put him in the positions to succeed. Miles is at his best as a play-finisher and Melo’s passing helps him to be that. I mean, we’ve seen the highlights:

Melo’s passing has been as good as advertised but to fully unlock it, he must showcase some gravity as a scorer. The best play-makers are able to create for others AND themselves. That was the question for Melo coming into the league. He didn’t shoot the ball well in Australia and wasn’t projected to be this incredible force at the rim. Melo still has some ways to go in those regards but teams already do respect him as a scorer. He’s putting up five attempts a game from three and shooting 34.9%. Those numbers don’t look amazing but his willingness to launch opens the floor for himself and others. In his last eight games before the Hornets’ COVID hiatus, he was putting up about seven attempts from three a game and shot 44%. He is starting to get more comfortable as a shooter and it forces defenses to have to come up on him in P&R because they know he’s not afraid to launch.

I don’t think LaMelo is gonna be a career 44% shooter from three but it is good to see him get hot and build a reputation as a shooter. In addition, LaMelo has shown some capacity to get to the rim. With his ball-handling ability and burst, he can get by defenders and is taking 39% of all of his shot attempts at the rim which is in the 84th percentile among point guards per cleaning the glass. He is only converting 56% of those shots which is in the 45th percentile among point guards but that number is honestly a lot better than what I expected. Melo is pretty thin and doesn’t have the necessary strength to power through defenders. With that in mind, it is pretty good that he grades out as about an average finisher.

I don’t project him as being a player that can get downhill at all times like prime John Wall or Russell Westbrook but he should still be a threat there which will be a great combo with his passing. His ability to get downhill will make those passing lanes even easier and we already see that he is terrific at finding the open man.

Defensively, Melo still has a ways to go. The Hornets allow about 2.7 more points per 100 possessions when he is on the floor. He’s not good at all at the point of attack and has a lot of trouble navigating screens. He is caught ball watching at times. But, these are all typical things for a rookie in the NBA. Adding strength will help him a lot on the defensive end because bigger guards can bully him despite his length.

That length has shown up as a plus as he has shown a great ability to get into passing lanes. His feel for the game on the offensive end also shows up on the defensive end. He ranks in the 84th percentile in block percentage and the 95th percentile in steal percentage among point guards. He just knows how to make shit happen on the defensive end:

His level at the defensive end currently is actually pretty impressive when considering his upbringing. In high school, he was basically a one way player that only really focused on the offensive end. These are pretty impressive rotations for a rookie:

So far in the NBA, he has brought a lot of energy and activity along with his instincts. As he continues to get reps and learns the nuances of defense in the NBA, he should turn out to be a plus defender. That along with his offense should make him a franchise cornerstone.

Melo isn’t perfect. There are the defensive warts. He’s not some special scorer that is going to be able to put up 25 a game. He makes a lot of mistakes. But, he has been a plus on the floor in his rookie season; something a lot of rookies can’t really say they are. Everything that I have seen has been so encouraging. The guy is oozing potential. If he hits his ceiling, I think he’ll be a guy that averages 19 points and 10 assists. He’ll add value on the defensive end. He should be able to be the primary initiator for a top ten offense. To me, that’s a player that can be one of the two best players on a championship team.

At the end of the day, Melo is just such a fun player and guy. His teammates are always talking about the joy that he brings to the locker room and to them individually. He has immense confidence on the floor and in his teammates. The highlights are amazing. He has made the Hornets one of the best watches in the league. He is the great hope for the Hornets franchise and it’s going to be fun to watch him grow and develop. Just imagine what he is going to look like in his prime when he’s 24. There have been some rough days in Charlotte with what happened to Cam Newton, Kemba Walker leaving, and just the mediocrity that the Hornets have demonstrated for years. LaMelo provides the best chance for the Hornets to get out of it so please don’t blame Hornet fans for being irrationally excited. We deserve it!