Rise of the Android

Forecasting mobile OS trends for the next year.

October 2012; I wrote a notable article that outlined how far Android had progressed in terms of functionality and how this helped to position the platform as a genuine rival to iOS. I was not a regular user of Android at that point; I developed apps for iOS.

In the article, I suggested that the year ahead would represent a leap forward for Android due to the marked improvement in quality and economic pressures that faced everyone around the world.

It would be difficult to say my foresight was wrong.

The Year to Date

2013 has seen an impressive swing in the platform numbers, with Android dominating globally; few countries remain iOS strongholds.

A number of high profile developers have started releasing alpha/beta apps on Android before iOS, such as Twitter and Facebook.

The Google Nexus 7 and Tesco Hudl (available in the UK) represent real and direct challenges to the iPad empire.

Android game consoles have also began to carve out a niche. Will they grow to rival the soon to be released Xbox One and PS4? I am going to say they will not in their current form because of their price, but I would not want to speculate if the price drops or a completely integrated solution appears.

Amazon meanwhile have gently pushed their way to a comfortable market share and the rumour mill has entered full swing with mentions of game consoles, set-top boxes, and mobile phones.

Impacting events in the industry that I did not predict included:

• The gentle and interesting rise of Windows Phone 8.
• Tesco Hudl — a real game changer, offering excellent value.
• iTunes Connect developers console being taken offline.
• iOS 7 having so many post-release problems.
• Google releasing Chromecast to rival the Apple TV.

The Global Situation

If you think we’re out of the global depression, recession, or whatever news reporters want to call it, think again. The next year is going to be brutally hard on the global finances of families and individuals alike.

The Food Price Index is still higher than it should be, various global government deficits still grow, and many people still live well beyond their means, some because they have no choice — they are effectively trapped in a cycle of bad debt.

It’s great that Tim Cook went public to Bloomberg saying, “And that’s really important to us because we have never been about selling the most.”), because in the past few years more and more consumers have been racking up debt to buy Apple products.

Apple’s niche was always luxury goods and they did it well for a long time. I have not found, a successor to the MacBook Air.

However, as finances are pushed harder, more people will have no choice but to carefully consider what, if any, luxury items they acquire. Frequent warnings have been issued by observers over the past ten years that the gap between the rich and poor is growing wider, and that those in the middle are increasingly joining the poor.

At the same time, 2014 is going to represent an amazing year in technical revolution for the non-technical person.

Whether it’s 3D printing in your local supermarket, virtual reality gaming for the home, digital fitness, or other “little” things; ultimately, a lot more people are going to have a lot more choice on what to spend their dwindling funds.

This chain of global events will have a significant impact on Apple, whether they care to admit it or not. They could pull a rabbit out of the hat and produce some genuinely good low-cost products, they could downsize and focus more on being a luxury brand, they could go on a spending spree and buy every interesting start-up, or they could fizzle away over a decade like carbonated water.

The one thing Apple probably won’t do is give all that money to a charity that helps those who have maxed out their bank loans on Apple gear. Tough lesson.

The Year Ahead

2013 represented the year of change amongst the new generation of operating systems. Apple is no longer dominating the mobile and tablet industry, Android is succeeding them. Windows Phone 8 will not be a failure; and no doubt the demise of Blackberry had a lot to do with that, I see no reason why their growth would slow.

That’s not to say it is the end of Apple, they still have a lot to give the world and their achievements should be treated with respect. There is still a vast number of Apple users to support, sell third party products to, design apps for, et cetera.

We should begin to see Amazon solidify their position; making a strategy become clear. They have a global hardware and bandwidth infrastructure to support a mighty rival to the other players, if they choose that route.

We’ll see more high profile developments surrounding Android; whether it’s hardware and app development agencies shipping first for Android, or platforms becoming more focused. Expect Android-powered television to become much more mainstream.

As Windows Phone 8 continues to grow at a steady rate, it will become a more attractive platform to develop for; there are some smart people working at Nokia and Microsoft, combined they have every right to success. The most obvious way they can achieve this is by attracting more developers, which they are in the process of doing.

The biggest speculation seems to be around Samsung versus Google; will Samsung create a genuine gem of an operating system to rival Android? I’m not convinced, but I’d happily try it if they thought they had. Could Britain find another diamond like theRaspberry Pi?

My tip for the year ahead is this: stop speculating, stop hating alternative platforms, don’t believe hype, certainly don’t follow what marketing departments want you to believe about their rivals; instead, focus on the fundamentals.

• Is the company innovating or re-creating their own wheel?
• Does it have potential to make a significantly positive impact in the world?
• Does it retain both stability and the openness required to encourage innovation?
• Will it put people into debt or liberate them from it?

When you can see clear and positive answers to those questions, you’ll know that the technology in question is a potential winner.