What did IAA 2015 get right about the future of auto tech?
A look back at past predictions
Sep 15, 2017 · 3 min read
The International Motor Show (IAA) showcases the latest breakthroughs in automotive technology. Whether cruising on two wheels or hauling on 18, the innovations unveiled throughout the festival will impact your experience as a car maker, parts manufacturer, and as a driver and rider. The cutting-edge tech could also dramatically influence urban infrastructure and the relationship between cars and your community.
As the event is held every two years and often portends the industry’s future, we looked back at IAA 2015 to see which predictions came true and which fizzled.
Who’s got gas?
- Then: Toyota promised a commitment to hydrogen cars and to sell fuel cell-powered vehicles in DACH as early as 2015/2016. Have they followed through? What’s the reception to those vehicles?[1]
- Flash forward: The adoption of fuel cell technology has been restrained by infrastructure. Whether it’s electric vehicles or hydrogen fuel cells, the limiting factor isn’t demand for the vehicles or how fast they can be produced, but how consumers can power them. California — the only state with a real commitment to creating hydrogen fueling stations — has only 28 stations, which is less than half of what was anticipated by this time.[2]
The electric pledge
- Then: VW pledged to release 20 electric cars or plug-in hybrids by 2020.[3]
- Flash forward: They’ve taken their electric pledge one step further by announcing earlier this year that they will not produce any new combustion engine vehicles beginning in 2020.
- Then: VW also announced the development of an all-electric Porsche with a range of 500km to challenge Tesla’s Model S. At the time, they stated they would make a decision by the end of the year on whether or not to move full speed ahead with the project.[4]
- Flash forward: Dubbed ‘Mission E’, Porsche’s electric dreams are in full swing and their announcement in April 2017 confirmed as much. The question now isn’t if high performance carmakers will go electric, but what consumers will prioritize in a landscape that emphasizes efficiency and range.[5]
Driverless luxury
- Then: Mercedes was already talking all things autonomous. Daimler already owned Car2Go, a car-sharing service allowing subscribers to locate and rent Daimler-owned vehicles using a smartphone. The carmaker predicted that consumers will still want a luxury car experience without all the hassle of, well, driving. “It would be more convenient if the car came to you autonomously,” Daimler Chief Executive Dieter Zetsche said at the time. Truly. In August 2013, Mercedes-Benz developed an S-Class limousine which drove between Mannheim and Pforzheim without driver input and Mercedes anticipated a demand for more autonomous luxury experiences.[6]
- Flash forward: The trend toward automation has only accelerated and Daimler’s August 2015 purchase of high-def mapping service HERE, along with BMW and Audi, certainly seems more fortuitous with each passing day. Leading up to IAA 2017, Daimler announced developments in car-to-car communication via Vision EQ — an autonomous car concept based on the ForTwo microcar, a version of which is used primarily by Car2Go. Full steam ahead for automation.
Show stoppers
- Then: Historically, car shows are opportunities to release new models, new designs and new tech. IAA 2015 was no different as Toyota released a revamped Prius, Renault and Opel launched new models, and a host of brands contributed sporty mid-size SUVs — VW Tiguan, Ford Edge and Jaguar F-Pace among them.
- Flash forward: IAA 2017 will undoubtedly be home to new releases and a lot of buzz surrounding design, capability and bells and whistles. In the digital age, how much do the models really matter? With more and more talk surrounding the overall car landscape (automation, infrastructure, personalization, etc.), will the big takeaway be a new car feature or a new way forward?
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