Weekly Cryptocurrency and ICO Market Analysis [June 11–17, 2018]
This report was created by:
- Professor Dmitrii Kornilov, Doctor of Economics, Member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, and Leading Analyst at ICOBox;
- Dima Zaitsev, PhD in Economics, Head of International Public Relations and Business Analytics Department Chief at ICOBox;
- Nick Evdokimov, Co-Founder of ICOBox;
- Mike Raitsyn, Vision Director of Snowfox Technology
- Anar Babaev, Co-Founder of ICOBox;
- Daria Generalova, Co-Founder of ICOBox
This report presents data on cryptocurrency market changes during 2018. Special emphasis has been placed on an analysis of the changes that have taken place in June 2018, including over the past week (June 11–17, 2018).
1. General cryptocurrency and digital assets market analysis (by week, month, quarter). Market trends
1.1 General cryptocurrency and digital assets market analysis (by week, month)
Table 1.1. Trends in capitalization of the cryptocurrency market and main cryptocurrencies from March 1, 2018, to June 17, 2018*
When analyzing cryptocurrency market trends, the period from June 10–17, 2018, is used, while the calendar week (June 11–17, 2018) is used for the news overview and the analysis of the ICO market.
Over the analyzed period (June 10–17, 2018) cryptocurrency market capitalization decreased by $55.5 billion, and as of 03:00 UTC on June 17 equaled $280 billion (see Table 1.1). Overall, the fall since the start of the month has equaled around $50 billion.
The dominance of the four and eight largest cryptocurrencies as of 03:00 UTC on June 17, 2018, equaled 70.6% and 79%, respectively, with bitcoin dominance increasing to 40% (see Table 1.1). Despite the overall reduction in cryptocurrency market capitalization, considerable growth was seen last week in the prices of certain cryptocurrencies from the third echelon by capitalization (top 500), such as GINcoin (+69.33%), Docademic (+56.89%), U.CASH (+35.71%), DubaiCoin (+32.36%), Karma (+32.35%) and others.
During the period (June 10–17, 2018) cryptocurrency market capitalization fluctuated from $335 billion (max) to $264.2 billion (min) (Fig. 1a), i.e. within a range of $70.8 billion. For its part, bitcoin capitalization fluctuated from $128.1 billion (max) to $107.6 billion (min), i.e. within a range of $20.5 billion.
As noted before, there has been a very high correlation between the capitalization of the cryptocurrency market as a whole (Fig. 1a) and bitcoin for more than a month, and the past week was not exception (see Fig. 1b). The maximum and minimum points and the overall configuration of the cryptocurrency market capitalization charts show an almost complete correspondence.
Figure 1a. Cryptocurrency market capitalization since June 10, 2018
Figure 1b shows bitcoin capitalization (red line) imposed on cryptocurrency market capitalization (blue line). The lines are practically identical.
Figure 1b. Capitalization of the cryptocurrency market (blue) and bitcoin (red) since June 10, 2018
During the analyzed period (June 10–17, 2018), overall cryptocurrency market capitalization dropped by 16.5% (or approximately $55.5 billion), with the largest market falls taking place on June 10 and 13, 2018 (see Fig. 1b, Table 1.1). The sharp decline in capitalization on June 10, 2018, can be partially explained by two events: the hacker attack on Coinrail (June 10, 2018), which cost the cryptoexchange $37 million, and the demand for data on transactions on major cryptocurrency exchanges (Coinbase, Kraken, Bitstamp and itBit) made the day before by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (June 8, 2018).
The rise and fall of cryptocurrency prices over the past seven days (June 10–17, 2018)
During the period from June 10–17, 2018, the change in the prices of cryptocurrencies in the top 500 ranged from -51.93% (WaykiChain) to +69.33% (GINcoin). The favorable news for the price of GINcoin this week was its listing on a new cryptoexchange (Twitter). The price of WaykiChain fell in line with market trends, but the amplitude of its fall was larger.
The price of only 26 cryptocurrencies and digital assets from the top 500 showed growth, including only three from the top 100.
Over the past week the number of cryptocurrencies with a capitalization of more than $1 billion contracted from 22 to 18, with Binance Coin being the only one to show a price increase (+5.94%). All the other coins showed a downward adjustment: NEO (-22.56%), IOTA (-21.87%), TRON (-20.76%), EOS (-20.19%), etc.
The coins and tokens from the top 200 that demonstrated the largest price growth are given in Fig. 2.
Biggest gainers and losers over the week (June 10–17, 2018)
The prices of some cryptocurrencies may fluctuate from -50% to +50% over the course of a single day. Therefore, when analyzing cryptocurrency price trends, it is advisable to use their average daily amounts on various cryptoexchanges.
Below we consider the 10 cryptocurrencies that demonstrated the most significant change in price over the past week (Fig. 2–3). In this regard, only those coins and tokens included in the top 200 (Fig. 2) and top 100 (Fig. 3) in terms of market capitalization (according to the data of coinmarketcap.com) were considered.
Figure 2. Largest growth in prices over the past week
Tables 1.2 and 1.3 show the possible factors or events that might have influenced the fluctuation in prices for certain cryptocurrencies. Table 1.4 shows the possible factors or events that might have influenced the cryptocurrency market in general.
Table 1.2. Factors or events that might have led to a growth in cryptocurrency prices over the past week
The last three cryptocurrencies in Table 1.2 are tied to the US dollar, and their prices are relatively stable and equal $1. This is one way to maintain the value of assets during a crisis on the cryptocurrency market and a fall in the prices of most cryptocurrencies. In particular, since the start of the year the capitalization of Tether has nearly doubled, from $1.4 billion to $2.6 billion.
A depreciation in price was seen last week for 474 coins and tokens from the top 500 cryptocurrencies and digital assets by capitalization. The ten cryptocurrencies from the top 100 that experienced the most noticeable drops in price are shown in Fig. 3 and Table 1.3.
Figure 3. Largest fall in prices over the past week
Table 1.3. Factors or events that might have led to a fall in cryptocurrency prices over the past week
Table 1.4 shows events that took place from June 11–17, 2018, that had an impact on both the prices of the dominant cryptocurrencies and the market in general, with an indication of their nature and type of impact.
Table 1.4. Key events of the week having an influence on cryptocurrency prices, June 11–17, 2018
To analyze trading activity on cryptocurrency exchanges, the ZAK-n Crypto index is calculated (see the Glossary). The values of the ZAK-4 Crypto and ZAK-8 Crypto indices are presented in Tables 1.1, 1.5.a, and 1.5.b. In June the 24-hour trading volumes (Volume 24h) for the four dominant cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple) equaled from $4.8 billion to $9.3 billion (Table 1.5.a). The value of the daily ZAK-4 Crypto ranged from 2.4% to 4.4% of capitalization. The highest trading volume was seen on June 14.
Table 1.5.a. Daily ZAK-4 Crypto index calculation (from June 1–17, 2018)
The 24-hour trading volumes (Volume 24h) for the eight dominant cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple, Litecoin, Stellar, EOS, and Cardano) decreased to $5.6 billion by the end of last week (Table 1.5.b), or 2.5% of their market capitalization. The ZAK-4 Crypto and ZAK-8 Crypto indices are considered in more detail in Tables 1.5.a and 1.5.b.
Table 1.5.b. Daily ZAK-8 Crypto index calculation (continuation of Table 1.5.а)
Since May 22, Huobi, one of the largest cryptoexchanges, began issuing the new consolidated HUOBI 10 index, which shows the trends of 10 digital assets with a high market value and liquidity. The index equaled around 900 points (June 18, 2018, 20:00 UTC/GMT+3). We remind you that the base point of the HUOBI 10 is 1000.
Table 1.6 gives a list of events, information on which appeared last week, which could impact both the prices of specific cryptocurrencies and the market in general.
Table 1.6. Events that could have an influence on cryptocurrency prices in the future
1.2 Market trends
The weekly cryptocurrency and digital asset market trends from December 31, 2017, to June 17, 2018, are presented as graphs (Fig. 1.1–1.5).
Table 1.7. Legends and descriptions of the graphs
Figure 1.1. Total cryptocurrency market capitalization (Q1 and Q2 2018)
*Average daily data(according to the data of coinmarketcap.com)
Figure 1.1 shows a graph of the weekly cryptocurrency market change from December 31, 2017, to June 17, 2018. Over this period, market capitalization dropped from $572.5 billion to $281.3 billion, i.e. by 51%. Last week (June 10–17, 2018) cryptocurrency market capitalization decreased from $324.2 billion to $281.3 billion (as of June 17, 2018, based on the average daily figures from coinmarketcap.com).
Figure 1.2. Change in market capitalization (Q1 and Q2 2018)
The market is susceptible to sudden and drastic fluctuations. During the first week of January, market capitalization increased by approximately $250 billion, or 44%. The largest weekly fall in the first quarter of 2018 equaled $136 billion, or 23%, during the period from January 28-February 4, 2018.
Nine of the thirteen weeks in the first quarter of 2018 were “in the red”, i.e. capitalization fell based on the results of each of these weeks. In the second quarter, the market grew over the first five weeks, followed by periods of downward adjustment. Over the past week (June 10–17, 2018) the market contracted by around 13%, or $42.3 billion (with due account of average daily data, see Fig. 1.2).
Figure 1.3. Number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets (Q1 and Q2 2018)
Data source: coinmarketcap.com (coins and tokens on which there is information on capitalization and/or turnover were considered)
Since December 31, 2017, the total number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets considered when calculating market capitalization has increased from 1,335 to 1,585. Over the past week their number decreased by 38, from 1,585 to 1,547, and average capitalization equaled $181.8 million. In total, over the past month 73 new coins and tokens have appeared on coinmarketcap.com. However, it should be noted that a number of other coins and tokens were also excluded from the list. From among the tokens that were added to coinmarketcap.com last week, Sentinel Protocol, XMax, and GoChain showed high trading volumes.
Figures 1.4 and 1.5. Forecast of total cryptocurrency market capitalization
The latest cryptocurrency losses are connected with the hack of the South Korean Coinrail cryptoexchange (June 10, 2018). To date it has been confirmed that 70% of the reserve coins/tokens were kept secure. Some assets (tokens) have been frozen until the circumstances are clarified. The attack targeted the tokens of the Pundi X (NPXS), Aston (ATX), Dent (DENT), Tron (TRX), and other projects. Certain publications mention that the losses from the hacker attack equaled around KRW 40 billion. The Pundi X (NPXS) token was the hardest hit by the attack. Medium reports that the Pundi X project is indicating that they received a notification from Coinrail on unauthorized trading with 2,619,542,080 NPXS tokens, which were transferred to IDEX (this amount of NPXS tokens equals 3% of all NPXS available for trading, and is valued at approximately $20 million).
The Chinese cybersecurity company Qihoo 360 Netlab has announced that a group of hackers stole Ethereum worth more than $20 million from wallets and mining apps on the Ethereum platform (CoinDaily, June 12, 2018).
As we have written in previous reports, one of the most important tasks in the crypto industry is protecting digital assets from hacker attacks, theft, security breaches, and the possible loss of assets due to the appearance of scam projects and phishing websites.
The importance of developments in this area cannot be overstated.
Here are a few examples: in April 2018 a hacker attack took place on the well-known wallet MyEtherWallet, as a result of which The DAO users lost 12 million ETH in 2016; Mt.Gox — around 850,000 BTC; Bitfinex — $65 million in BTC; NiceHash — $70 million in BTC; Tether — $30 million in USDT; and finally, just recently, in 2018, Coincheck — $534 million in NEM. In total, in the first half of 2018, Cybersecurity Carbon Black estimated that the digital currency had been stolen for about $ 1.1 billion. All of this speaks to the fact that one of the most important tasks in the industry in the near future is to create reliable security technology for all types of cryptocurrency wallets, improving the social responsibility of ICO projects and cryptoexchanges (including decentralized ones), and creating a user-friendly interface for cryptocurrency management.
2. General analysis of the ICO market (by week, month)
2.1. Brief overview of ICO market trends
Table 2.1. Brief ICO market overview, key events, news for the week of June 11–17, 2018
The undisputed leader by the amount of funds collected was the Block.one project, which issued 900,000,000 EOS tokens. The blockchain project brought in $4 billion, or 7.12 million ETH, in total as of Wednesday night, according to Token Report, a division of blockchain advisory firm New Alchemy. The distinguishing feature of this project is the lengthy period of the ICO. The issue of tokens ran from June 26, 2017, to June 1, 2018. During the first five days the ICO sold 200,000,000 EOS tokens, with another 2,000,000 EOS tokens being subsequently sold every 23 hours.
Table 2.2 shows the development trends on the ICO market since the start of the second quarter of 2018. Only popular and/or successfully completed ICOs (i.e. ICOs which managed to collect the minimum declared amount of funds) and/or ICOs listed on exchanges were considered.
Table 22.2. Aggregated trends and performance indicators of past (completed) ICOs1,2,3
The data for the previous period have been adjusted to account for the appearance of more complete information on past ICOs. Over the past week (June 11–17, 2018) the amount of funds collected via ICOs equaled $174 million. This amount consists of the results of 10 successfully completed ICOs, with the largest amount of funds collected equaling $42.3 million (GoNetwork ICO). The average collected funds per ICO project equaled $17.4 million (see Tables 2.2, 2.3).
Table 2.3. Amount of funds collected and number of ICOs
Table 1.3 shows that the largest amount of funds was collected via ICOs in March 2018, mainly due to the appearance of major ICOs. The highest average collected funds per ICO was also seen in March 2018.
Figure 1.1. Trends in funds collected and number of ICOs since the start of 2017
2.2. Top ICOs of last week
Table 2.4 shows the ten largest ICOs of the week.
Table 2.4. Top 10 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected (June 11–17, 2018)*
The data for the previous period (June 11–17, 2018) may be adjusted as information on the amounts of collected funds by completed ICOs is finalized.
The leader of the week was the GoNetwork project, which is creating an innovative, inexpensive infrastructure on Ethereum blockchain to expand the possibilities for use of mobile devices. The idea behind the development is to increase the speed of transactions and reduce their cost. To achieve this goal, some transactions will be performed as off-chain transactions.
Figure 2.2 presents the ten largest ICOs completed during the past week.
Figure 2.2. Top 10 ICOs by the amount of funds collected (June 11–17, 2018)
2.3. Top ICOs in the Infrastructure category
The list of top ICOs by category is compiled with due account of the categories of the leading ICOs for the week, most of which belonged to the Infrastructure category. All the major projects in this category have collected more than $100 million (Table 2.5).
Table 2.5. Top 10 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Infrastructure category
The leader of this category was the EOS project, which according to the estimates of its developers (block.one) can process more than one million transactions per second, and blockchain users will not pay a fee. During the period from June 26, 2017, the price of EOS has increased by approximately 11.1 times, from $0.90 to $10. Therefore, the token performance of this project for initial backers equals 11.1x. The current capitalization of EOS exceeds $9.2 billion.
Figure 2.3. Top 10 ICOs by the amount of funds collected, Infrastructure category
During the analyzed period (June 11–17, 2018) at least 10 ICO projects were successfully completed, each of which collected more than $100,000, with the total amount of funds collected equaling more than $170 million. Last week’s leader was the GoNetwork project, which collected $42.3 million. The total amount of funds collected by a number of ICOs failed to reach even $100,000 (the information for some projects is still being finalized).