POLITICS | ELECTION 2020
Forget Trump & Biden
Our future depends on 9 Senate races.
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I can’t stop checking the FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast. It’s becoming clear that even if Democrats hold the House of Representatives and defeat Trump, progressive change will depend on a few key Senate elections.
There probably won’t be more than 54 Democrats in the Senate next year. And according to FiveThirtyEight’s “Deluxe Model,” there’s only a 7% chance that the elections will produce a clean 54-46 split in Democrats’ favor.
Dems may hold 52 or 53 Senate seats next year — or fewer.
In the best scenario, Medicare for All, the Green New Deal, expanding the Supreme Court, and other progressive initiatives will be at the mercy of moderates like Joe Manchin, Kyrsten Sinema, and Mark Warner.
It all comes down to these races:
Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Montana, Georgia, Colorado, Arizona, South Carolina, and Michigan.
FiveThirtyEight projects that Republicans will win the Senate races in Kansas and Alabama by at least 4-9% points, but maybe I shouldn’t count them out. Still, I think it’s best to focus on the 9 races that are expected to be especially tight — and what we can do to swing them. While millions of ballots flood into people’s mailboxes, we should focus on donating and phone banking.
Here’s how you can help Democrats:
1. Theresa Greenfield, an urban planner, is challenging Republican Senator Joni Ernst. You can sign up to phone bank here, or donate $10 here.
2. Sara Gideon, the Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives, is challenging Republican Senator Susan Collins. You can sign up to phone bank here, or donate $5 here.
3. Cal Cunningham, a veteran and State Senator, is challenging Republican Senator Tom Tillis. Phone bank here; donate here.
4. Steve Bullock, the Governor of Montana, is challenging Republican Senator Steve Daines. Phone bank here; donate $10 here.
5. Jon Ossoff, a documentary filmmaker, is challenging Republican Senator David Perdue. Phone bank here; donate $5 here.
6. John Hickenlooper, Fmr. Mayor of Denver and Fmr. Governor of Colorado, is challenging Republican Senator Cory Gardner. Phone bank here; donate $5 here.
7. Mark Kelly, an astronaut, is challenging Republican Senator Martha McSally. Phone bank here; donate here.
8. Jaime Harrison, a leader in the Democratic Party, is challenging Republican Senator Lindsey Graham. Phone bank here; donate $15 here.
9. Last but not least, Democratic Senator Gary Peters is fending off a tough challenge in Michigan. Phone bank here; donate here.
