Psychology | Critical Thinking | Bulletproof
How to Bullet-proof Your Reasoning #1: Watch out for Confirmation Bias!
Are you vulnerable to the influence of like-minded groups of people?
INTRODUCTION
The goal of this How To Bullet-proof Your Reasoning series is to equip the reader with a better understanding of how to use critical thinking in daily life. This is crucial and everyone is capable of it, yet it’s not often taught in schools outside of university-level social science-related classes.
The first step to effective critical thinking, and it is not a trivial one, is that we must train ourselves to recognize the many cognitive biases and logical fallacies that human beings are predisposed to have and commit.
Cognitive bias: a subconscious error in thinking that leads you to misinterpret information from the world around you, and affects the rationality and accuracy of decisions and judgments.
Logical fallacy: a common error in reasoning that will undermine the logic of your argument.
CRITICAL THINKING ALLOWS US TO IDENTIFY WHETHER AN ARGUMENT IS LOGICAL OR NOT
We must evaluate arguments based on the validity of each of their premises(1). In its simplest form, an argument consists of three premises, each of which must be evaluated as either true or false.
Logical argument: requires a set of (at least) two propositions known as the “premises”, along with another proposition, known as the conclusion. The proof of a conclusion depends on both the truth of the premises and the validity of the argument.
Example:
[a] John wants a pet dog for his birthday and [b] his parents agreed, [c] John’s parents will not get him a cat for his birthday.
In this example, I used cat for contrast, but I could just as well have substituted “…will get him a dog for his birthday“. Both arguments are valid.
UNDERSTANDING CONFIRMATION BIAS AND WHY WE MUST TRY TO AVOID IT
Confirmation bias: the tendency to gather evidence that confirms preexisting expectations, typically by emphasizing or pursuing supporting evidence while dismissing or failing to seek contradictory evidence.
This is perhaps the most common of the cognitive biases that we are prone to and is the reason why I chose to begin the series here.
Next, you will read a real-life example of confirmation bias that is very common.
REAL-LIFE EXAMPLE:
Tim is a young man who is active and has a very healthy body fat percentage of somewhere between 15 and 20%. He has been watching videos by fitness YouTubers for the past couple of months and is paying particular attention to those that give advice on how to get six-pack abs.
He has seen dozens of videos showing how this result can be achieved in 30–45 days by targeting the abdominal muscles with the proper types of crunches, and, using this information, has carefully pieced together a collection of exercises and a sequence in which to perform them in order to reach that goal.
He meets up for lunch with his good friend Dennis and tells him that he is excited to get started with his ab program and convinced that it will take him at most 45 days to get his desired result.
Dennis is also interested in fitness and enjoys staying active and researching information about it as well. He encourages Tim in his efforts but also cautions against setting unrealistic goals. This is because Dennis understands that Tim would have to lose a lot of body fat before he will be able to see his abs, no matter how many hundreds of crunches he performs each day or two.
He also knows that targeted exercises will certainly build strength in the core (abdominal) area of the body, and even help with defining it a little, but the reality is that the way Tim’s abs will look, assuming that his body fat level is low enough, is mostly predetermined by his genetics.
Tim shakes his head and says…
[a] I’m not overweight and [b] I know that these exercises will help to burn whatever little bit of fat is covering my abs [c] while I make them bigger and more visible with my exercises.
Look. I have a program that includes upper abdominals, lower abdominals, obliques… There’s bodyweigth exercises, gym machines, gymnastics rings, and even medicine balls and ab wheels.
And all of the videos I’ve watched and explanations I’ve heard show that this works. In fact, they don’t even mention food at all*.
So Dennis says…
But did you look for information about how your diet and body fat percentage impact your results when trying to develop visible abs?
Tim replies…
Nah, man. I want to focus on exercises! And, besides, I already know how to eat healthy**.
Explanation:
[a] = This proposition is TRUE.
[b] = While Tim is not overweight, he fails to realize that he still needs to lose a good amount of weight before his abdominal muscles will be visible regardless of how many crunches he does. He also incorrectly equates abdominal exercises to a cardiovascular activity having the required intensity (keeping the heart rate higher for a sustained period of time) to cumulatively burn a number of calories over time that is significant enough for him to lose weight. So this proposition is FALSE.
[c] = This is largely based on his genetic predisposition for this muscle group. So, while this proposition could be TRUE, it is most likely FALSE.
*, ** = Confirmation bias
CONCLUSION
As can be seen in this real-life example, seeking both supporting and opposing viewpoints and arguments for our beliefs as well as following those propositions to their logical conclusion is an absolute necessity.
This is a must-do for anyone who wishes to accept only the logically-sound arguments that are presented to them and reject those that are not.
Click here to read other articles in the How-To Bullet-proof Your Reasoning series.
All the best,
Pascal
PS: Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments and you can also read more about me here.
REFERENCES
(1) As cited in Audi, Robert, ed. (1999). The Cambridge Dictionary of Philosophy (2nd ed.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. p. 43. ISBN 0–521–63136-X. Argument: a sequence of statements such that some of them (the premises) purport to give reasons to accept another of them, the conclusion.
