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How Success Stories Deceive Us (And How To Avoid It)

We focus on success stories and ignore silent evidence. And it distorts our reality. Here’s how to avoid getting fooled by survivorship bias:

Ozan Irturk
ILLUMINATION
4 min readApr 1, 2023

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Survivorship bias — cover image
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Is it possible to build a $200 million media business with only two people?

And with no initial investment?

Well, Joe Rogan proved it is.

He started his podcast with a webcam from his bedroom in 2009.

11 years, hundreds of episodes, and millions of views later, Spotify offered him an exclusive deal.

He was already making millions from YouTube.

But the press said Spotify paid $200 million to convince Rogan.

Even before that deal, Rogan’s success inspired many people.

And started a podcast wave.

After all, who doesn’t want a job where you can talk with interesting people and make millions?

So everybody joined the gold rush.

There were 23,198 new podcasts in 2010.

In 2020 — together with lockdowns — the number increased to 1 million.

When survivors distort our reality

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ILLUMINATION
ILLUMINATION

Published in ILLUMINATION

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Ozan Irturk
Ozan Irturk

Written by Ozan Irturk

Founder, Frontera. I help executives turn their businesses into great brands via strategy. Join 10,000+ executives: https://fronterabrands.com

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