How to think 5 moves ahead.

Photo by Jonathan Cosens Photography on Unsplash

We live in a complex world that punishes simple, linear thinking.

Have you ever tried solving a problem, only to have it unintentionally create a bigger one that's even worse?

More often than not, it’s because you weren’t thinking long-term.

The greatest minds consistently think 3–5 moves ahead, using second-order thinking.

But what is “second-order thinking”?

First-order thinking is when we’re looking to solve an immediate problem, without regard for any potential consequences. First-order thinking is simplistic and superficial, fast and easy. Most of us live here.

For Ex — When faced with a recession, a big tech firm’s decision to fire 10–30% of their employees to cushion their bottom lines.

Second-order thinking is more deliberate. It moves beyond the immediate problem and considers the multiple consequences of a given decision through time. It looks past the first-order effects of a decision and deeply examines the second, third, and Nth-order effects.

Quoting Shane Parrish, second-order thinkers ask, “And then what?”

Ex — Because of these mass layoffs, the next generation of talented workers might choose not to subscribe to these firms anymore but instead choose to bet on themselves.

How can we use second-order thinking in our lives?

1. When considering major decisions, always ask, “And then what?”. Write down the 2nd and 3rd-order consequences. It will help calibrate your thinking.
2. Consider time — What do the consequences of your decision look like in 10 minutes? 10 months? 10 years?
3. For business decisions, think about ecosystem reactions — how would a decision impact your employees, and how would your competitors, suppliers, and regulators react?

Many extraordinary decisions start as negative in the first light but have second-order positive consequences.

Don’t be fooled by immediate payoffs. If second and third-order consequences are positive, you’ll have an advantage over first-order thinkers.

Second-order thinking is challenging.

But, it’s a clever way to set yourself apart from the crowd.