The State of the Union
The Modern-Day U.S. Two-Party System, and Its Potential Evolution
We often picture the two major U.S. political parties as uniform entities, the Democrats are liberals and the Republicans are conservatives, right? However, both parties are relatively broad coalitions masquerading as unified parties. But why are these two parties so entrenched? What factions are vying for power within the broad coalitions of our current two parties? Why does it seem impossible to elect third parties on any meaningful scale? This is the second part of a series on the American two-party system. You can read part one, where I explore the history of the two-party system in the United States, here. This isn’t necessarily required reading for this article, but it is useful background information for understanding this article.
The Sixth Party System: The Current Political Order
The current political order in the United States is characterized by a simpler party dynamic than previous party systems. While the previous few party systems had a liberal wing and a conservative wing in both the Democratic Party and Republican Party, the Democrats have now been firmly established as the party of modern American liberalism while the Republicans have become entrenched as the party of American conservatism. While there remains a small faction of conservative Democrats and a small faction of liberal Republicans, both factions are very minor and continue to shrink.
Both parties are coalitions of several groups, but these groups have more in common amongst themselves than in previous party systems, creating a two-party system that has two ideologically cohesive parties rather than the strange coalitions in the past. While there are certainly distinct factions within both parties, they tend to align with their party more often than not. The easiest way to view these factions is through the major ideological congressional caucuses of each party. For the Democrats, these are the New Democrat Coalition, Congressional Progressive Caucus, and the Blue Dog Coalition. The Republicans have the Republican Study Committee, the Freedom Caucus, and the Republican Governance Group. It is also worth mentioning that there is overlap between some of these caucuses as Representatives can be members of multiple caucuses.
You can read about each ideological caucus on their websites linked above, but to summarize, the New Democrats are liberals and moderate progressives, the Progressive Caucus is made up of more uncompromising populist progressives, and the Blue Dogs are a small group of moderate to conservative Democrats. On the other hand, the Republican Study Committee is the caucus for standard conservative Republicans, while the Freedom Caucus is composed of hardline populist conservatives and the Republican Governance Group represents moderate conservatives. The New Democrats and the Republican Study Committee can be seen as the main ideology of their particular party, although the Progressive Caucus has grown larger than the New Democrats in the House in recent years. Essentially, both parties can be broken up into three broad categories; moderates, committed liberals/conservatives, and populists.
The House ideological caucuses are just a simple way to view these divides, but the point is that both parties are made up of several factions that vie for power within the parties. In recent years, the dynamics between some of these factions have changed enormously. In the Democratic Party, progressivism and left-wing populism have grown in influence, even eclipsing the New Democrats in the House in numbers. Figures like Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are examples of this growing group. In the Republican Party, right-wing populism, which really has no better term to describe it than “Trumpism,” has become incredibly influential.
Are We on the Verge of the Seventh Party System?
The resurgence of populism, both on the right and the left, has led to major changes in American politics in recent years. On the other hand, The increasing political polarization is clear to everyone. If we are in the middle of another political realignment, this new party system will likely pit a more left-wing progressive Democratic Party, not unlike social democratic parties in Europe, against a Trumpist-dominated Republican Party. While it remains to be seen if this realignment will pan out, I believe the upcoming 2024 elections will be the determining factor.
Why Are We Stuck With Two Parties?
The main culprit for the two-party system is our electoral system. Currently, most American elections, from federal Congressional and Presidential primaries to state legislatures and Gubernational elections, utilize a “winner-take-all” system. This type of electoral representation is exactly what it sounds like, the winner of the most votes (which would be electoral college votes in the case of the Presidency, not a popular vote) wins everything and voters who voted for the opposing party get nothing. American congressional districts are “single-member districts,” meaning they have one representative each. Because of this system, most voters feel a vote for a third party is a waste. If there’s no possibility that their preferred third-party candidate will win, so why bother voting for them? Wouldn’t it be better to just vote for the lesser of two evils of the two major parties that have a chance? This system entrenches a political culture in which only two parties are viable, which have been the Democrats and Republicans since the mid-1850s. In contrast, many other countries utilize proportional representation systems. In this type of system, each congressional district would have multiple representatives instead of just one. These representatives would be elected according to the share of the votes they get, not only if they win the most votes. This would allow everyone within each congressional district to feel represented by the politicians they vote for, not just the majority party.
As an example, let’s say a particular congressional district is traditionally dominated by one party, but around 30% of the voters in that district vote for the other party. In a proportional representation system, this district might have three representatives, which likely means two would be elected from the party that typically dominates elections in that district, but the third representative could be for the other party. This system allows for the political minority to be better represented in government. This also fosters a feeling among voters that a third-party candidate does have a chance at winning in their particular district, so people would feel less like they are throwing a vote away. In the case of presidential elections, this wouldn’t work, of course, we can’t elect multiple people for the presidency. But the barrier here is the electoral college, a winner-take-all system on a massive scale.
Can We, and Should We, Change It?
While there are certainly arguments to be made about the two-party system bringing a sense of stability to American politics, I believe the alternative is still preferable. Our two-party system has created a polarized political climate with only two realistic options and millions of voters wishing they could vote for a third party without wasting their votes. In my eyes, while the Democrats and Republicans are still broad coalition parties, don’t fully represent the American electorate and we would be better off with a multiparty democracy that a proportional representation system would create. Our politics would become more chaotic, but also more dynamic as several parties vie for seats in Congress. But how realistic would it be to make this shift? Is it even possible? I believe it would be difficult, but possible, to shift our political culture and system in this direction. Somewhat paradoxically, I believe more parties with more niche, specific interests would create a less polarized political system than we currently have.
Sources
LeMay, Michael C. 2017. The American Political Party System: A Reference Handbook. ABC-CLIO.
Maisel, L. Sandy. 2022. American Political Parties and Elections: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford University Press.
