The Coming Storm: Ukraine and the World
Something is stirring on the horizon. The trouble that broods somewhere out there is invisible to the naked eye, but it is nonetheless present. Although it does not yet make its presence known to even those who look for it, it gathers strength on the open plains, just beyond the limits of our vision. This force cannot yet be seen, but it is massing just beyond our reach and will soon be upon us. This force has come and gone from visibility, bringing with it over the centuries catastrophe, war, destitution for the many and power for the few. When this force comes over the horizon, the rule of men and force of arms is then the only law, and justice is merely an afterthought of hypocritical states seeking to cast the veneer of respectability on otherwise unjust and oppressive institutions. Below the clouds out there on the open horizon now, this force builds in strength and numbers. The brooding that was invisible before can now just be heard, the rumbling of the approaching clouds turns to growls. The storm grows in intensity and pressure, and is visible to those who look for it now. The storm clouds converge miles ahead, growing in size, towering above the countryside, collecting moisture and thunder, biding their time to explode on the earth and things and the measure of all our history below.
I do not tell you this because it is noteworthy to say, or because I care much for saying it. I say this to you because it needs to be said. It must be said. The fragile international order, the semblance of justice between states and the pretense of international law, the appearance of equal justice for states and communities weak and strong, is about to crumble once again before our eyes. But this time is different. The massing of Russian forces on the border of Ukraine, and the likelihood of a coming invasion to topple the government there and install a puppet state, threatens to stab at the very heart of a continent which in the twentieth century held in its hands the culmination of war’s suffering, molding it into a new order aimed at preventing war and mediating disputes between states. Things were never perfect, but they were not always at the point of being broken for good. The institutions created after the second world war were flawed from their inception, but they were a genuine attempt, borne of terrible suffering, to prevent another global war.
Our history is one of conflict, consolidation, and the struggle for power. Tribes and clans fought for resources and respect, clashing with one another to claim water for fishing, land for cultivation or picking, food to survive. There was no law that could restrain the human impulse for violence between our small collectives then, and there was no authority other than violence. There were only bands of warriors fighting for supremacy, the weakest were enslaved and the strongest survived to enjoy the fruits of their conquest. There was no law and no will to impose it in the conduct of nations between and among each other. There was only the will of the strongest to subjugate the weak.
Tribes and clans developed into kings and queens and kingdoms, emperors and their nations. Kings controlled their territory with a combination of apparent divine authority, the right to rule, the goodwill that comes with peace and relative prosperity, and brute force. But still between and among kings and empires, the rules of politics, treaties and consideration, could always be reduced to a lowest common denominator: The will of the strong to violence. Negotiations and agreements, diplomacy and trade, all were made or broken in war. Ultimately, where the strong saw something they wanted or hated, and where weakness was apparent or on the horizon, they took it. There was no petition to higher authority, no writ of appeal to some honorable court. There was no resort to the letter or the practice of the law. There were no advocates or judges. There was only the bravery, aptitude, and strength for the battlefield. There was only the favor of god for the stronger, who would ultimately prevail over his enemy. The strongest would then survive. They would kill each other for power and glory.
Time and history advance but few things in our nature change. Through the modern age, our history is marred by conflict and the race between nation-states to develop and field new and more destructive weapons, both for success on the battlefield and as a means of deterring potential aggressors. Our species has borne unspeakable conflict, death, and tragedy. We have developed weapons that have the ultimate power of life and death for us all, each person on this planet.
But through all these things, slowly but surely, we have developed an international order whose highest aspirations seek to avoid war between nations. The means and the forum for mediation and power-sharing, the collective management of our respective interests and security, exist. We have built them on the graves of the hundreds of millions of war dead, the cascade of lost generations, one after the other to warfare and suffering over the centuries. We have learned to tolerate peace more than war, and the world is less violent for this reason. We are better for this reason. We have built these institutions out of our hope for the future, and the love of our children.
The coming conflict over Ukraine is the most serious test yet in this century for the stability and durability of an international order which both espouses and practices the ideals of non-violent political resolution to disputes between states. In the background lurks the broader conflict between democracy and autocracy, between strategic security and hypocrisy, and between great powers capable of destroying each other, and all of us, for power’s sake. Our history shows the alternative to negotiation and peace. The strong will subjugate the weak and the race to develop new and more destructive weapons will consume us all. We must seek to preserve and strengthen existing institutions as a means for brokering peace. We must seek to strengthen these institutions, and build new ones, to avoid conflict. We can do these things. International law and institutions can have a chance to restrain our worst impulses as between states, as they do within them. It is our one hope for the future.
