The Gavin Newsom Recall Election Is Not About Ability
Not that you asked, but it is all about doubt.
Californians are heading to a recall election asking whether Gavin Newsom should continue as governor. That some people are not satisfied with a sitting elected official is nothing new:
You can please some of the people all of the time, you can please all of the people some of the time, but you can’t please all of the people all of the time — John Lydgate
Why Are Some People Dissatisfied
The people at Recall Gavin 2020 list many reasons, including:
- Newsom Declaring California a Vote by Mail state
- Loss of Jobs during the Pandemic
- Power Outages
- Mandate to Wear Masks
The topmost reason listed is that Newsom had an indoor dinner at a high end restaurant, which broke the outdoor only COVID protocols of the time. A poor decision for a leader.
I don’t debunk other people’s beliefs. There is no fairness or balance to the list, though, because clearly that site is all about getting Newsom out of the office.
But let’s be honest, if you are a Republican, any small dissatisfaction with a Democratic governor is magnified in importance. And vice-versa.
Having A Recall Election
To have a recall election in California certified signed petitions are needed, with the number of signatures equal to (or greater than) 12% of the number of people who voted in the last gubernatorial election. That’s simplified, and a mouthful.
- In 2018, ≈12.4 million people voted in the gubernatorial election, so ≈1.5 million people need to sign a petition for a recall election.
- In 2018, 4.7 million people voted for the Republican candidate. The equivalent of one-third of them are needed to sign a petition for a recall election.
- There are nearly 22 million registered voters in California. In total, only 7% of them are needed to sign a petition for a recall election.
There is an attempt to recall the Governor of California, on average, every two years, but getting enough signatures is problematic: only one petition has ever reached the stage of an actual recall election.
So it looks easy, but there needs to be some dedication to the cause
Why do Republicans Want to Recall Newsom
Republican activists have been trying to recall Newsom since shortly after he was inaugurated in January 2019. Five attempts failed to get enough signatures. — CalMatters
The recall election is on September 14th. Assuming Newsom is recalled, a new governor will be seated by October 22, 2021.
The next regular election is November 8, 2022, and the winner of that will be seated on January 23, 2023.
A newly installed governor will have roughly 15 months to govern. In reality, they will spend the majority of that time positioning themselves (that is, running) for re-election.
If a Republican is elected not much will proceed legislatively. California’s Senate is controlled by Democrats (31 of 40 seats); and the Assembly is likewise controlled by Democrats (59 of 80 seats).
Checks-and-balance by having different parties in place can be a good thing, no doubt.
But the goal is not to stalemate California’s state government.
The goal is doubt.
2028
Newsom’s trajectory:
- Mayor of San Francisco
- Lt. Governor
- Governor
California has a two term limit for governor. Newsom won in 2018, and possibly could win in 2022. Without a job come January 2027, and with experience of running the most populous and largest economic state in the US, he is arguably a viable candidate for either President or Senate.
Even if Newsom does not run for public office ever again, the Republicans sow the seeds of doubt now.
Newsom’s recall election is proof positive that Californians lost faith in him.
It does not matter if Newsom is recalled. The Republicans already have their lever. People who vote the party-line won’t care. But anyone on the fence will hear that.
And the more the Republicans push that message, the more doubt will exist.
The goal of the recall election is not to recall Newsom, the goal is to weaken potential opposition five years from now.
Nothing personal, it’s just politics.
