The likelihood of a second Trump presidency
Abraham Lincoln said, “The ballot is stronger than the bullet.” The hush money case and the other three will prove that on Election Day.
The latest on the four cases
- In the hush money case, Trump was found guilty of “34 felony counts of falsified business records.” His sentencing is early next month. It has been delayed until early Sept.
2. A Georgia appeals court postponed the case in which Trump and 18 others are accused of attempting to overturn the 2020 elections. The court agreed to hear former president Donald Trump’s appeal.
Trump and his co-defendants accused Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis of having “a financial conflict of interest” because she was romantically involved with special prosecutor Nathan Wade. While her office was paying him for being on the case, they took trips together.
Wade stepped down in March 2024 after McAfee decided their relationship conflicted with the case. A decision must be made by March 2025.
3. The case about Trump taking “classified documents” and attempting to hide them after being subpoenaed was delayed.
4. In a fourth case about overturning the 2020 election results, there is a delay in deciding if he can use presidential immunity. The U.S. Supreme Court decided that the former president has “some immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts” as a sitting president.
Each is significant in this year’s election because of its legal and political implications.
Legal challenges
There are legal challenges if Trump does become president again. If Trump is imprisoned as president the Department of Justice could request a release. Formerly, the DOJ Office of Legal Counsel stated that being a convicted president would hinder their work duties.
Any individual who believes their constitutional rights are being violated can use an appeal to seek a release. Because of federal law, its access is restricted when asking the federal court to free them from state custody. Trump would have to present an appeal to the State of New York and convince them that his incarceration violates his constitutional rights.
If that happens, the U.S. Supreme Court would investigate because of “the federal constitutional issues involved.” Also, the DOJ may have the governor of New York pardon Trump if he becomes president.
As to whether Trump can have state charges exonerated, the Congressional Research Service states that “Article II, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution” gives the President the right to do so. This is limited to federal crimes and not extended to state crimes. He can’t pardon himself for state crimes and it is unclear for federal ones.
Impact on the presidential election
The case could impact how voters will vote in this upcoming election.
Political scientist and co-director of the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, Eric Schickler said the outcome is unprecedented making it hard to be sure of the case’s impact on the upcoming presidential elections.
“Our usual theories for understanding American politics would have told us after January 6th, 2021, that there is no way that former President Trump would be the Republican nominee in 2024,” Schickler added.
Despite the circumstances, voters’ support of him has not swayed. Professor Political Science Gabriel Lenz further proves this point.
“Among Trump’s base, however, the conviction may help,” Lentz said.
The hush money case advances his “narrative that Democrats are using government to target him unfairly.” Possibly galvanizing Trump supporters to vote and give more to his campaign.
Lecturer at the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, Dan Schnur believes the difficult task for Trump is going outside his base for support.
Biden and Trump
Despite the outcome of the delayed cases, Biden could lose to Trump in the presidential elections. Schnur stated, “Democratic progressives have been unhappy with the president on many issues, most notably the Gaza War.”
USNews reported that 1 in 4 Republicans “would not vote for Trump if he was found guilty of a felony in a criminal trial.” On June 27, 2024, The National Review reported that 79% “of Republicans said they are enthusiastic about their nominee.”
There is “a 46 percent favorability rating” for Trump, while Biden’s rating is 37%. Trump’s rating jumped by 4 points while Biden’s fell by the same points.
It is a close race between Trump and Biden. According to a 538 poll, Trump has a 0.3 lead at 41.1% and Biden is at 40.8%. A slight increase for Trump and a huge decrease for Biden. These are the current numbers after Thursday’s debate.
Biden is behind Trump in states needed to stay in the White House. According to Reuters, 59% disapprove of his performance while 36% approve.
Last month, Reuters reported this “was a return to the lowest approval rating of his presidency” since July 2022. After the debates, the disapproval rating is 56.0%.
Conclusion
This sounds unpopular to some, but if the four cases play in Trump’s favor he could be president again. Another reason is Biden’s approval rating. I can’t see how Biden wins.
