This is 10% Luck, 20% Skill, 15% Concentrated Power of Will, 5% Pleasure and 50% Pain, and a 100% Reason to Remember the Name
But we hardly talk of the 10%
It is easier to claim complete credit for your achievements.
Through this post, I’ll be the harsh critic.
This will free you, but first, it will piss you off.
Luck can liberate.
It can grant you your life, as history has shown in many stories.
Jesus escaped to Africa. Moses was saved in a basket. Pope John Paul II was shot, twice, but survived. You survived another day with your boss (not all bosses are bad though).
Luck can also end a life.
I would have spared the cockroach walking by me while writing this post. If I were in a park, I would. But of late, they have been sticking their heads everywhere I turn. I am on a killing spree.
My love for microbes still stands. I spare some small ones. If only I could rent a space for them. Only them.
The point is, there is a fine line of outcomes when luck is fiddled with. You will either be praised for your boldness, or despised for your stupidity.
I have previously talked about the need to consider organisms as bold entities. Your boldness is appreciable only through existence. Because you exist, you are bold. And luck has a role to play in your existence.
Let us look at the object often linked with luck — the die
The Die is Cast
Unlike some two-faced people we know, the die is made of six faces. But like the two-faced people we know, you can never tell which face it will land on.
Each has an equal chance.
Since there are six faces and only one will be considered, each has a one-in-six chance. This is the definition of randomness.
Randomness = equal probability.
Are there 100 objects for auction? Then each has a 1/100 chance of being sold.
Randomness equalizes.
In reality, randomness is hidden. The die will not always follow a strict pattern from 1 to 6.
In the formal world, randomness equalizes. In the world we live in, randomness is luck. Hidden. Spontaneous. Unpredictable.
Hidden but not non-existent.
The real world does not squash the existence of randomness. It only downplays it, because we like to think of ourselves as the center of the universe.
Nicholas Copernicus faced a lot of backlash when he insisted the Earth was not the center of the universe. Ptolemy’s model showed how Earth can be the center and still predict the movement of the heavenly bodies.
Ptolemy’s model gained favour because it put us in the middle. The focal point. Corpernicus’ model denied us this privilege. Luck does the same to our stories.
Your success is tied in part to your efforts. The other part is luck. According to Shinoda, the unspoken 10%.
Consider the game of Russian Roulette.
A revolver has six options in its barrel.
With only one bullet in it and a controlled finger, it has five out of six options to grant life and a one in six chance of dying. Why?
Each slot has a one-in-six chance of being the one with a bullet. If you were playing the game, your life depends on luck. With the head of the revolver on your temple, you might not think this to be the case.
Your primary goal is the gun doesn’t bang.
How could you be doing calculations when your life is at stake?
I mean, Math is barely 5000 years old. Even so, not so many people like the subject. Yes, they would love to count their money and hope nobody swindles them.
But getting into complex algebra and calculus is not how many wish to spend their afternoons or Friday nights.
Narration, however, is essential in many human populations.
We tell stories.
Stories are the most powerful abstract tools I know of. During my younger days, you would not entice me to read the Bible by threats of hell. You would, however, convince me to read a book called Bible Stories.
Oral tradition has also been the savior of many societies. In communities without modern libraries, it is the elderly who keep the secrets of the tribe. In the event of a resurgence of a disease that they had survived before, they are the people who how to survive it again.
They will not relay this message using numeracy.
We had a one in two thousand chance of surviving.
This headline can hardly make it to the top-seller list. But this one on the other hand:
How a 97-year-old grandmother saved the lives of millions
Interesting, yes?
Yet again, randomness is not squashed by oral tradition. Its presence may be absent, but existent. Hindsight might be 20–20, but foresight is plagued with a crazy probability storm.
But I still have good news for you.
Your universe might be a harsh place to live, but because you exist, and are yet to part with us, you are bold.
With every challenge you face, there is a probability of falling out of tune with your expectations. Nevertheless, this spectrum of possible outcomes does not paralyze you. You still make decisions. That demands boldness.
Randomness can equalize. It can even challenge your future outcomes. But boldness is facing randomness in the future, for your future’s sake.
Randomness is also your ally. You have not yet heard the barrel bang. You have only had it click.
Probability equalizes and has the potential to paralyze.
Probability also lifts and gives you a chance.
Literally, it gives you a chance. If the revolver has 6 slots, you have a one-in-six chance of dying. You also have a chance to survive.
When it comes to evolution, we like the narration: survival of the fittest. We also like to talk of adaptation as a guide to survival. We don’t think of chance.
Shinoda gives figures to your existence. I am sure you even like to identify with — 5% pleasure and 50% pain. But most of all you would agree with — 100% reason to remember the name.
You were, however, given a chance.
Chance is numerical. So give it a chance.
Chances are you might not like it.
But chances are, you exist because of it.
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