Why I Am Not Planning On Getting The COVID-19 Vaccine.
Outrageous, I know. I’m definitely part of the problem.
I am not particularly against vaccines, they’re a wonderful technology that has done so much for humanity. I’m not particularly against the COVID-19 vaccine either, it is comforting to see human innovation at such an unprecedented level rising to meet the challenge of this pandemic. It is also nice to see light at the end of the dark tunnel that has been the last year of isolation and uncertainty.
Notwithstanding all of this, I am not planning on getting the vaccine. While I may have nothing but admiration for the science, the thought, the care and ingenuity that goes into the development of vaccines and their undeniable utility, I am not so fond of social pressure, coercion, poor scientific arguments and unnuanced risk analyses.
To provide some more context for this, I am a 26-year-old male — outrageously healthy, fit, good cardiovascular health, good respiratory health, solid immune system, and questionable mental health but let’s not talk about that. My risk of adverse health effects from COVID-19 is vanishingly small.
Quick maths!
First, I would have to contract the virus, which is already not very likely, but also not too unlikely. It is hard to accurately estimate what the likelihood of contracting the virus is for me specifically, but at this point in Norway, there have been roughly 118 000 reported cases since February 2020, out of a population of 5.3 million. That’s about 0.2% of the population.
Of course, there are probably several cases that go undetected, but the number is still not very high. Being very generous, let’s assume there is a 1% chance of me contracting the virus. (Although I am generally quite responsible with avoiding large gatherings, keeping my distance, etc.)
According to an interesting model made available by The Economist, my risk of hospitalisation if I contract COVID-19 is about 2%.
Statistically, this puts me at about 0.02% chance of ending up in a hospital as a consequence of COVID-19. Now, with comorbidities such as asthma, diabetes, obesity, and so forth, this number would be significantly higher, easily more than 10 times higher. Obesity is actually almost as important a factor as age when looking at the severity of COVID-19 symptoms.
Disclaimer: This is a silly and inaccurate way of using statistics, I only use it to illustrate risk in terms of orders of magnitude.
Like so many other young adults, I am not and was never personally concerned about contracting the virus myself. I was concerned by the possibility that I might spread it to someone else, and I was mildly annoyed at the prospect of having to sit in a room for a strict quarantine of 14 days.
Obviously, with vaccines it’s not just about me though, it’s about everyone, getting rid of the contagion in society at large. There are a few reasons why I still don’t feel a strong need to get the vaccine:
My age range is the last age range (25–39) to get vaccinated where I live, and I’m okay with that. It would not make sense to me to push for my own vaccination, there are other people that need it more than me. Society has recognised this, and consequently, my age range is last in line for it. By the time it’s my turn, all or most of those at risk for severe illness from COVID-19 are already protected.
Long term health effects. The fact that there may be unknown long-term effects, however small or inconsequential they may be, makes it so that it is less of a risk for those who are older to take the vaccine. If a 70-year-old starts noticing adverse effects 10 or 20 years down the line, they’re going to have to live with it — statistically speaking, in Norway — anywhere from -10 (negative ten) to 4 years. Whereas a 20-year-old would have to live with it for 40 to 54 years. (Life expectancy for men and women being 80.6 and 84.2 respectively)
Herd immunity is probably not what we’re aiming for anymore. At the beginning of the pandemic, herd immunity was the goal. Now, herd immunity is beginning to seem unattainable. Early estimates put the threshold at 60–70% of the population being immune for the total population to have herd immunity, but that estimate was called into question when the city of Manaus passed 60% immunity and still had what is described as “a huge resurgence in cases.” Likely, the threshold, if there can even be said to be a reasonable threshold, is a fair bit higher than 60%.
As it stands, the Norwegian government is not even planning to vaccinate children under the age of 18, which makes up roughly 21% of the population. That would mean that even with 100% of the population of 18 years and up we would only have vaccinated 79% of the population. It is not only highly unlikely that we can convince 100% of the population above 18 to get the vaccine (case in point: me) but even if we could the vaccines are not 100% effective, not in their protection from COVID-19, and presumably worse than that at blocking transmission.
This does not mean vaccines do nothing, to say that it’s all or nothing would be to present a false dilemma. Anything that reduces transmission is going to be beneficial to the project of getting through this pandemic. However, it does mean that overall, my taking the vaccine is not as important as it would be, were we to try and reach that theoretical threshold.
Finally, my family on my mother’s side have a history of autoimmune disorders. Now, the link between autoimmune disorders and vaccines are tentative at best, but the immune system is an incredibly complex system that I am not going to mess with just for the fun of it. I would rather take my chances with the virus, than take my chances with the newly developed mRNA vaccine that no human ever had experience with until recently.
If it was a more severe illness, I would take the vaccine — it seems reasonably safe. As it stands, I have no plan to do so, no matter the social pressure, stigma, or coercive measures surrounding the subject.
I would not be doing the population an enormous service in taking the vaccine, and I certainly do not feel like I would be doing myself much good either. That’s it.
