Why Prioritization is the Key to Effective Crisis Management
A leadership guide from pilots, sea captains and first responders
Last year also marked the 10-year anniversary of the miracle on the Hudson where Captain Chesley Sullenberger (“Sully”) and his crew safely ditched an Airbus 320 into the Hudson’s freezing waters after an unlucky encounter with a flock of geese. All 155 passengers survived. For Sully, that must have been the crisis management of a lifetime. How did he manage?
Our story on crisis management starts with Antony where we’ll explore the experience of being lost at sea
First a bit of trivia
On the 5th of January 2019, a 280 kg Pacific bluefin tuna was sold for $3.1million in Japan. That’s over $11,000/kg, a quarter of the current price of gold! The rare bluefin tuna’s fatty belly, known as o-toro, makes its way to fancy sushi restaurants in Hong Kong, New York, and London for over $50 apiece. The story of the bluefin tuna is tainted with over-fishing, mismanaged regulations, and corruption. Today, restaurants like Nobu mark their menus with an asterisk to offer bluefin tuna alternatives to the conscious sushi lover.
August 2018, while on honeymoon in Costa Rica, my wife and I decided to do a day of sports fishing out in the Pacific Ocean. 15–20 km off the coast, far enough to be completely surrounded by the ocean. We were greeted by Anthony, our captain, fisherman, guide, and companion for the day, a cheerful, warm-blooded man from Panama who had moved to Costa Rica twenty years ago. He was confident at the helm, and it was clear that his decades of experience came with a wealth of stories, waiting to be told. As we left shore, Anthony assured us that the daily tropical thunderstorms were normal and that he would be in radio contact with other boats out fishing throughout.
We had an amazing experience. We raced into the open seas, as Anthony followed cues of waves and dolphins to find schools of yellowfin tuna. It was fascinating to learn that tuna schools associate with dolphins to protect themselves against sharks. During the day, Anthony opened up to us and said he’d been lost at sea as a teenager. Eileen and I assumed that Anthony had been caught in a thunderstorm and spent a few nights awaiting clearer weather before returning to the coast, although his expression implied there was more to the story…
As tropical rain poured on us in the middle of the ocean, it got me thinking. How would I manage such a crisis? What about other crises in life or at work? Would I rely on my intuition, use checklists, or apply analytical problem-solving? I started making parallels with other industries and thinking of my pilot training. Then, I shared with Anthony a classroom exercise lost at sea, something from my MBA decision-making course.
Prioritizing while lost at sea
If you have never seen this, have a go: if you were lost at sea and you had on board these fifteen items, what three items would you prioritize and keep? Try it before you read ahead.
(If you haven’t picked your choices, reading further reveals the answers)
While the answers might be counter-intuitive for some, with a few minor differences, Anthony’s choices were immediate and accurate. His smirk, however, suggested that to him, this theory was not exactly how things play out in reality.
We had to know: “Anthony how long were you lost at sea for and why?”
Anthony shared his story from thirty years ago like it was yesterday. He was sixteen years old when his mates decided to go deep-sea fishing on a tiny fisherman boat in the hope of catching large bluefin tuna, which sold for several hundred thousand dollars. These large tuna were usually found 100 km off the nearest coast. Anthony and his crew got caught in a major storm and were completely lost in the Pacific Ocean several hundred kilometers from any land and any major shipping routes. The two/three-day bluefin tuna chasing adventure to catch their big break became a life-changing fight for survival that lasted six months until they were lucky to be picked up by a Japanese container ship. Six months!
How first responders make quick decisions
Anthony’s story made me curious to learn how first responders make in-the-moment decisions: these are emergency personnel, police officers, firefighters, etc. In many of their crises, there is very limited time to follow standard operating procedures, checklists, or analytical problem solving to make the right decision under pressure. Fortunately, Klein, in the Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions, has done the in-depth research for us, studying decision making of these first responders. What Klein ultimately discovered was that most first responders used a variety of mental scenario simulation, cues (e.g. in the case of a fire, the color and density of the smoke are cues that can be compared to previous situations), and experience templates to make fast decisions on the spot. This is now coined as recognition-primed decision making (RPD), which can be loosely simplified as intuition.
We understand better from this Sources of Power excerpt, where Klein describes an emergency response:
[…] The alarm comes in at 3:21 P.M. for the emergency rescue team. Three minutes later, the truck is driving up to a typical house in a residential neighborhood. […] We see a man lying face down in a pool of blood, his wife crouching over him. As the emergency rescue team goes to work, the woman quickly explains that her husband had been standing on a ladder doing some home repair. He slipped, and his arm went through a pane of glass. He reacted foolishly by pulling his arm out and, in doing so, sliced open an artery. The head of the rescue team, Lieutenant M, later told us that the man had lost two units of blood. If he lost four units, he would be dead. Watching his life leak out of his arm, the man is going into shock. The first decision facing Lieutenant M is to diagnose the problem. As he ran to the man, even before listening to the wife, he made his diagnosis. He can see from the amount of blood that the man has cut open an artery, and from the dishcloths held against the man’s arm he can tell which artery. Next comes the decision of how to treat the wound. In fact, there is nothing to deliberate over. As quickly as possible, Lieutenant M applies firm pressure. Next, he might examine whether there are other injuries, maybe neck injuries, which might prevent him from moving the victim. But he doesn’t bother with any more examination. He can see the man is minutes from death, so there is no time to worry about anything else. Lieutenant M has stopped the bleeding and directs his crew to move the man on a stretcher and to the truck. He assigns the strongest of his crew to the hardest stretcher work, even though the crew member has relatively little experience. Lieutenant M decides that the man’s strength is important for quick movement and thinks the crew member has enough training that he will not drop the stretcher as it is maneuvered in through the back of the rescue truck. On the way to the hospital, the crew puts inflatable pants on the victim. These exert pressure on the man’s legs to stabilize his blood pressure. Had the crew put the pants on the man before driving, they would have wasted valuable time. When we reach the hospital, I look down at my watch: 3:31 P.M. Only ten minutes since the original alarm.
Lieutenant M had a number of decisions to make, and the order he made them in as well as the time spent on each activity could have cost the man his life. Klein argues that the Lieutenant used recognition-primed decision making which matches patterns, identifies cues, and compares mental models. In time-critical situations, intuition-led (“gut” feel) decisions are the quickest and most successful when based on multiple similar previous experiences. This method of decision making is effective but assumes the person has field expertise. An inexperienced Lieutenant might first want to better understand the situation or might mistakenly think it’s better to put the man on a stretcher first.
Focused decision-making from pilots
Then I compared this to flying, where pilots are used to adhering to emergency checklists and rules. This offers some form of pre-planned prioritization on goals.
In simple terms, you aviate, navigate, and communicate, in that order.
Aviate first: if you can’t fly the plane, you won’t live to tell the tale (similar to the mirror in lost at sea, food won’t be enough if you can’t signal rescuers in the first 36 hours), unless there’s a fire, at which point your priority is to put out the fire, then fly the plane.
Aviate is all about actively controlling and monitoring airspeed, pitch attitude, and bank angle among other things that stabilize and keep the plane flying safely.
Navigate is to know where you are, where you are going, where the weather, terrain, and obstacles are.
Communicate is between pilots, with the tower and crew. Communication enhances situational awareness in the cockpit, cabin, and ground crews which becomes even more relevant in crises. You can see how this framework could also be applied in the business world to help prioritize in a crisis.
In Sully’s accounts and story, when it becomes clear that there is an emergency, he quickly says “my plane”, takes control and aviates, focusing on keeping the plane safe first. While the co-pilot is going through the emergency checklist, Sully mentally simulates what would happen if he tried to land at Teterboro or back at LaGuardia and realizes he won’t make it. Then, he simulates a potential water ditching (landing) which seems like the best course of action. This is most definitely similar to first responders’ recognition-primed decision making.
Experienced fishermen, pilots, and first responders all follow similar approaches in decision making under pressure during a crisis.
In summary, these are my key takeaways on managing a crisis:
- Prioritize — use recognition-primed decision making for speed and effectiveness (intuition + mental analysis)
- Prioritize correctly — Intuition isn’t useful if you are not an expert in the field, leave the prioritization to the person whose gut feel is based on firm prior experience
- Focus on the goals — In highly complex environments such as flying, emergency checklists (or previously aligned goals aviate, navigate, communicate) ensure that nothing is forgotten under pressure
- Lead — Complex crises require strong leadership to make quick decisions, drive the team, prioritize resources, and cleverly divide tasks
- Plan — There is no time to plan an alternate route in the middle of a storm whether in the sky, the ocean, or the office, so be ready for the unexpected and have a plan B.
Anthony eventually told us that his crew survived under the leadership of their captain who decided on the right priorities, divided the crew responsibilities, kept order, and aimed to navigate close to major shipping lines. But Anthony admits, in that kind of situation, the reality is that it’s not a simple question of intuition vs data-led decision making.
He said you learn to pray, you learn to hope, you learn to survive.
While the Atlantic bluefin tuna is considered endangered (EN) and the Pacific bluefin tuna is vulnerable (VU) according to the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, the yellowfin tuna is not on the threatened species, so enjoy it with moderation!
Notes on lost at sea: According to the US Coastguard, the basic supplies needed when stranded mid-ocean are articles to attract attention and articles to aid survival until rescue arrives. Without signaling devices, there is almost no chance of being spotted. Furthermore, most rescues occur within the first 36 hours when a person can survive with only a minimum of food and water.
Ranking the items in their importance to your survival: 1. Shaving mirror critical for signaling 2. Oil/petrol mixture critical for signaling. The mixture will float on water and could be ignited. 3. Water necessary for hydration. 4. Army rations basic food intake. 5. Opaque plastic can be utilized to collect rainwater and provide shelter 6. Chocolate bars reserve food supply 7. Fishing kit ranked lower than the chocolate as ‘a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush’. 8. Nylon rope could be used to lash equipment together and fix onboard. 9. Floating seat cushion a life preserver if someone fell overboard 10. Shark repellent. 11. Rum contains 80% alcohol, enough to be used as an antiseptic for any injuries, otherwise of little value — would cause dehydration if ingested. 12. Small transistor radio of no use without a transmitter. You would also be out of range of any radio station. 13. Maps of the Pacific Ocean worthless without navigation equipment. It does not matter where you are but where the rescuers are! 14. Mosquito netting, NO mosquitoes in the Pacific Ocean. As for fishing with it? — stick to the fishing kit. 15. Sextant is useless without the relevant tables and a chronometer.
