The World Might See Drastic Changes From 2024
We are on the edge of some big changes, and it’s a lot to take in. People are worried about things like artificial intelligence taking over jobs and how we can make sure it’s used responsibly. Then there’s the problem of deepfakes which again arises due to misuse of Artificial intelligence, being used to spread lies and sway opinions. On top of all that, there are conflicts between countries like Russia and Ukraine and tensions in places like Armenia and Azerbaijan, Israel & Gaza. Attacks by Houthi rebels on cargo vessels sailing through the Red Sea and China’s economy slowing down are adding to the uncertainty. Recession is knocking on the doors of Japan, UK & Germany. And to add to the mix, there’s a growing feeling that democracy isn’t as reliable as it used to be. It’s indeed a challenging time, in 2024 almost half of the world’s population will be voting. Almost 60 countries will hold parliamentary or presidential elections this year. If you find my article useful, then please follow my LinkedIn handle.
Why 2024 is a pivotal year?
The first biggest reason is that nearly 4 billion people will be choosing their representatives this year. The economist termed this year the “biggest election year in history”. The US, European parliament, Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, and some other countries will hold elections this year. The result of these elections will decide the direction towards which our world will navigate as these countries hold significant influence on the global stage.
Exit of US from NATO
If, in the US presidential elections in 2024, Donald Trump gets reelected, there can be a variety of outcomes. It will be interesting to see the stance of Trump on Russia and China. The most crucial event that will be covered globally is the US exit from NATO.
There is a great possibility that if Trump wins, the US might eventually pull out of NATO. According to Trump’s ideology, if NATO hadn’t existed, there would not have been any war like this; wars can’t be funded by the taxpayers of the US. The spending of the US in NATO is disproportionately high as compared to the European nations, which also implies that the European nations are not prepared for war. There is no way out of the threat because there is no alternative ammunization supply and no leadership available, and Europe will likely be exposed to a Russian attack if the US pulls out of NATO.
This pullout would not be limited to only NATO; it would also erode confidence in other security alliances of the United States, namely South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan. It would signal that the US is not an ally on which they can depend.
weakening health of democracies
“2024 will be a make or break year for democracies’’ — Staffan Lindberg
Staffan Lindberg is the director of Varieties of Democracy or V - Dem Institute, which is a Swedish think tank. The institute had some interesting findings to show about the declining health of democracies in the major influential countries.
- Most influential leaders around the world are tilted towards an anti-democratic stance.
- According to the institute, democratizing countries have decreased from 35 to 18 since 2003, and autocratic countries showed an opposite trend; there has been an increase in the number of countries from 11 to 42.
- Nearly 71% of the world’s population is living in autocracies, as compared to 48% about 10 years ago.
- Nearly all the components of democracy are getting worse in most countries as compared to 10 years ago.
- There is an increasing trend toward autocratization as compared to democratization in almost all parts of the world.
All this information is presented in the report by the V-Dem Institute; there are no personal opinions of mine. My responsibility is to present facts and try to analyze them.
Misinformation
According to this chart, almost all the major countries are under some threat arising due to misinformation. India is at the top of the list.
Misinformation also undermines democracy. When people believe misinformation, they might vote based on false ideas or support policies that aren’t good for them or their community. This can weaken democracy because decisions are made based on wrong information rather than facts or what’s best for everyone.
In 2024, the danger of misinformation is greater than we’ve ever experienced before.
This problem has increased even more with the introduction of artificial intelligence. It is becoming difficult to differentiate between what is real and what is fake because of videos created by deep fakes, due to which it is easy to spread propaganda now as compared to the past. This problem is so grave because even if a person who is well informed about any issue sees these types of videos, he will also get confused about whether the information that he is having is true or not.
For example, if a person reads an important statement from a prime minister or a president in print media and later encounters a fake video on social media containing a modified version of the same statement aimed at spreading propaganda against the ruling party or a community, they may become confused about which source is true and which is not. In such a scenario, there is a significant possibility that they might not verify the authenticity of the video, leading to a completely false interpretation.
I have explained nearly all the dimensions in my previous article regarding how AI will affect us. You can read that to gain some more insights.
Economic downturns
The condition of the global economy is not favourable. The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its growth forecast from 3.0% to 2.9%. The interesting part is that the majority of this growth is coming from emerging markets like India and China; the growth of advanced economies remains sluggish.
Chief economists have further expressed concerns regarding rising geopolitical tensions around the globe, which can have a huge impact on growth. The rise of generative AI and many other tools like Devin can further mess things up.
Economics and geopolitics are both connected. Tensions in any part of the world will have an impact on nearly all the countries in this globalized world.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has not ended yet, and we are having new problems to deal with. I am referring to the stress in the Middle East, particularly the war between Israel and Hamas and attacks by Houthi rebels on cargo vessels in the Red Sea.
If these conflicts don’t end, there will be huge stress on the energy markets, which also means a surge in retail inflation due to the rise in transportation costs and food prices.
Crises in the Red Sea are another concern. It is important to note that the Houthis are backed by Iran, and they do not accept the internationally recognized government of Yemen. The group has declared that it will consider attacking any Israeli ship that goes from the Red Sea and will continue to do so until Israel ends its invasion of the Gaza Strip. However, the problem has become worse because Houthis have indiscriminately attacked the ships of many countries.
Houthis are also accused of cutting the three undersea internet and telecommunication cables. Nearly 25% of the data transmission through the Red Sea will be affected as the load will come to the other 11 cables. It is still unclear whose fault it is, but speculations are there that it can be because of anchors dropped by the ships.
AI’s Entry
Economic growth will definitely get boosted because of new technologies, but income inequality caused by job losses is bound to happen. The problem is that historically, we have seen that with the rise of new technology, new tasks are created simultaneously, giving more employment opportunities to people. However, the creation of new tasks is really limited thanks to the excessive automation that the big tech giants have encouraged.
Throughout history, governments have largely favored capital-intensive production techniques over labor-intensive techniques. This bias encourages corporations to invest in technologies and rely more on automation.
An open letter was also signed to pause AI experiments. Companies must pause the work on AI models, which can be more powerful than Chat GPT 4, because of the concerns that AI might outsmart humans if it continues to gain further capabilities and everything is outsourced to it. It is demanded by many business magnates that proper regulations must be made within which AI labs must work. However, these things still exist on paper, and whether they will be implemented or not still needs to be seen.
