You Owe Your Existence to Cognitive Biases, So Be Respectful
They saved your ancestors’ lives.
Since Daniel Kahneman’s “Thinking, Fast and Slow” was published, throwing stones at cognitive biases has become many people’s favorite sport.
“Social proof is a curse to society! Just because everybody else is doing X doesn’t mean X is right! Wake up, you morons!”
I used to do that myself. I was one of the knights in this crusade against cognitive biases, and I would be the first to pierce one with my spear if I had the chance.
But not anymore. Now I’m kind to them, I treat them with respect.
Biases can save us
The crowd is approaching fast. “Run, ruuuun!”, they scream. What do you do? Unless you’re an anomaly, you run too.
Then you hear some gunshots. Later you learn the police has put down a serial killer.
Well, social proof (a.k.a. bandwagon effect) has just saved your damn life. So, be respectful.
But they can also screw us…
“Run, ruuuun!”.
Again, you run as if your life depended on it — only to discover that the crowd was, well, chasing Dua Lipa! Oopsie.
So, yes, despite being well-intentioned, cognitive biases may lead us astray.
Savanna versus Savannah
In the African Savanna, our ancestors had to aggressively filter information and act ultra-fast, lest ending up in a lion’s belly. Speed was more important than accuracy, and cognitive biases are mental shortcuts that allow snap judgments. A suspicious movement in the bushes? Sprint, dude, sprint!
Then, being a direct descendant of those fast thinkers of yesteryear, it’s no wonder you have the same biases imprinted in your brain. And sorry, there is no software update available.
The slow, accurate thinkers? All extinct.
Now, let’s move to Savannah, with an “h”. In this city in Georgia, no lions are lurking around, and you can take your time thinking more carefully about whether going into massive debt for a white picket fence is the right decision or not. Social proof tells you it is since all your friends are buying expensive houses. But is it?
Maybe yes, maybe not. How to know better?
The key to knowing better
It may sound paradoxical, but knowing better comes from not knowing.
I beg you pardon?
Yes, to know better you first must learn to say “I don’t know”.
When you say “I don’t know”, you are indeed saying, “My biases think they know better and already provided me with a quick response, but I will think more carefully. After all, they might be wrong.”
Should I buy a fancy house? I don’t know. I must do some detailed calculations and assess the risk of losing my job, for example. And I must do that while social proof screams “Of course you should! All your friends and co-workers are buying! Buy now!”.
Whatever your legacy software tells you, take it with a grain of salt. Nature is smart and there is age-old wisdom imbued in every bias, but, as you know, they can misfire.
Should I hire the candidate who nailed the interview or the one with the better portfolio and recommendations? I don’t know. I must weigh one piece of evidence against the other carefully and not rely only on bias from liking.
Is the new intern Mathew lazy because he was late to the meeting? I don’t know. I must check first if there was a massive traffic jam in the city and not fall prey to the fundamental attribution error.
It takes humility to accept that your reasoning is deeply biased and that you may be wrong. Saying “I don’t know” does not come naturally to us.
Ultimately, I may very well end up buying that house with the white picket fence and hiring the more charismatic candidate. And I may find that Mathew is indeed a lazy bastard.
But I shouldn’t rush to such conclusions taking what my biases say for absolute truth without a second thought.
Instead, I must create the habit of invoking a second thought — the unsexy, humble“I don’t know”.
Better decisions, here I come!
