How much time do we have to stop the climate system from breaking down?
A comprehensive study published in July 2020 shows that without drastic action Earth will be 2.6°C to 3.9°C hotter in 2100 than it was before we started to burn fossil fuels at massive scale. This article gives you an overview on climate goals and what exactly is necessary to reach them.
In the following “1.5C” and “2C” refer to heating of Earth’s surface by 1.5°C and 2°C compared to the time before the industrial revolution.
1.5C is now impossible
Had we started reducing our greenhouse gas emissions by 4% per year in 2000, Earth would probably only heat up by 1.5C until 2100.
Yet, we didn’t. Today, it’s virtually impossible to still reach that goal. We would need more than 20% reduction per year. Compare that with the impact of the Corona lockdown that will have resulted in “only” 4 to 7% reduction.
2C is probably not enough
Recent studies indicate that beyond 1.5C, tipping points trigger each other and push the climate system closer to a so-called hothouse state with 4°C heating.
But in any case it’s clear that every tonne of saved CO2 makes a difference. And the closer we get to 1.5C, the more habitable Earth remains.
What’s necessary to hit at least the 2C goal?
If we reduce our emissions by 6% per year, we can make 2C. And with bigger reductions we can of course get further.
The issue becomes serious as soon as we put numbers in relation:
- The corona lockdown leads to 4 to 7% reduction in 2020. That means in 2021 we’d need the effect of at least two Corona lockdowns. Without redistribution that would result in famine and huge social problems.
- If we miss a year or take a break, we have to reduce by 12.4% in the next year.
- Everything we emit today must disappear within the next thirty years.
If not now, when?
It’s too late to preserve today’s Earth. But humans can adapt and are optimistic. If we do everything in our power to act, we save a part of our future.
Who will take care of that if not you?
Let’s make change together!
Find out how Imagine Zero is tackling the climate crisis!
Originally published at https://imagine-zero.org on June 20, 2020.
