Follow the money- does VR gaming have a sustainable future?

I’ve been working on my virtual reality project for a few weeks now, and one thing has become abundantly clear: developing for VR is hard. On top of normal development issues, you have to worry about performance issues, have to specially design both art and UI to fit the field, and have to figure out how to make a game that doesn’t immediately induce projectile vomiting (unless that’s the kind of game you’re into). Not to mention a host of other reported dangers associated with VR. But, after all the toil, it’s worth it, because you’ve got a game that cuts through the chaff and just screams play me.

Well, sort of. Unfortunately, VR has yet to become mainstream or ubiquitous- it is estimated that there currently exists only around 5 million paying VR users worldwide. While this number is expected to increase, it creates a very real problem for current VR developers- the market is often too small to generate a worthwhile profit. Indeed, seemingly great, well-made games like Ruckus Ridge have been abandoned due to lack of revenue. This means that developers either have to invest in an idea in hopes the market will take off, create something so mind-boggling that the entirety of the current market pays for it, or simply develop out of love of the medium. But wait, that last one screams students and indie developers- the very people who helped the gaming industry recover from its crash in the early 21st century. So, are we saved? Well, maybe. The problem I’ve realized is that, especially for students, developing for certain VR headsets often has a monetary barrier to entry in that testing is painful without a development kit. For instance, I finished a few base asteroid models for my project this week, complete with texture and normal maps. However, before I can spend time iterating on that base to sculpt new asteroids, I need to make sure that my game runs with the current models and that the normal maps look right in VR. Without access to a proper Oculus Developer Kit, this testing process is arduous and time-consuming, halting the development process. However, such development kits cost hundreds of dollars, and are often sold out (as the Oculus DK2 is currently).

So what does this all mean? Is VR doomed? Not necessarily. It is currently in an awkward limbo state where it is not profitable enough for AAA studios but too cost-prohibitive (be it from product needs or low expected returns) for most students and the small indie studios, leaving few available to really leverage the medium. The saving grace of the field will be investors that see long-term potential in the technology and are willing to develop before the market has proven its existence. Personally, I feel it would likely be wise for VR headset companies to partner with schools and small studios to incentivize indie development. But, at the end of the day, despite the hardships, as long as there are developers who are genuinely interested in the potential of VR, the field has promise.