Law of Diffusion of Innovation

Premature scaling is the #1 cause of start-up failure. Start-ups need 2–3 times longer to validate their market than most founders expect. This is largely due to the Law of Diffusion of Innovation (see image).

• 2.5 % innovators
• 13.5% early adopter
• 34% early majority
• 34% late majority
• 16% laggards

Getting 1% to 2% of customers in a market is relatively easy as these are the innovators. The tipping point for success is at 15–18% market penetration. Scaling at less than 10% of market penetration is considered premature scaling. This is because you may believe you have market fit, when in fact you don’t. At 10% you are still only a bit over halfway into the innovators/early adopters. As a rule, they tend to adopt anything, but only for a short while. Don’t consider them to be a true positive of product/market fit.

Diffusion of Innovation