5 Predictions For Bitcoin In 2020
Time to take some risks by predicting the close future for Bitcoin.
At the end of the year, it is customary to take stock of the past year and then take some risks by making predictions for the coming year. Given the atypical and volatile nature of the Bitcoin market, making predictions for even one year is never an easy thing to do.
So the risk of looking like an idiot at the end of 2020 is very real if the predictions you make don’t come true. That’s part of the game, so I’m going to take a chance and give you my 5 predictions for Bitcoin in 2020.
It will be time to take stock and do the year-end 2020 accounts to see if I was right or very far from the market reality.
Prediction #1: Bitcoin Price Will Reach $50K
In the 2010s decade, Bitcoin has been a phenomenal success. Created in 2009 by Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin has achieved a market capitalization of $130 billion.
Bitcoin has transformed $1 invested in 2010 into $90,000 in 2019.
Above all, Bitcoin has shown that a fairer alternative to the current financial and monetary system is possible.
By the end of 2017, the price of Bitcoin had even reached an all-time high of just over $20,000. A veritable speculative bubble had then formed. The same bubble that burst during the long bear market of 2018 and that will have allowed the market of the greediest people to be cleaned up.
Now the market is much more mature and the Bitcoin is ready for the next strong bull market.
In 2020, all the conditions will be in place for a sharp increase in the price of Bitcoin:
- Bitcoin Halving scheduled for May.
- High economic instability with an economic crisis announced for months that will come sooner or later.
- Strong political instability in the world with the U.S. presidential election, the trade war between China and the U.S. or the more than tense relations of the U.S. with Iran or North Korea.
In addition, the computing power dedicated to Bitcoin mining keeps increasing and has reached a new all-time high recently. This is often a signal for a sharp increase in the price of Bitcoin in the future.
Some predict a Bitcoin that could even reach $100K by the end of 2020. For my part, I will be more cautious, while remaining ambitious, since I will predict a Bitcoin that will reach $50K by the end of the year 2020.
Prediction #2: Bitcoin Dominance On The Cryptocurrency Market Will Overcome 80%
Until the end of the first quarter of 2017, Bitcoin’s dominance in the cryptocurrency market had almost always been above 80%. Thus, Bitcoin’s market capitalization accounted for more than 80% of the capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market.
The year 2017 was a turning point at the time with many investors looking for the new Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s dominance of the market was felt and finally fell to an all-time low of 32% in January 2018 when the cryptocurrency market literally collapsed.
Once the market was purged of profit-hungry investors, Bitcoin finally regained its dominance of the market little by little to return above 50% by the end of 2018.
Investors are beginning to understand that there is no point in looking for The Next Big Thing in the cryptocurrency industry because Bitcoin is already The Next Big Thing.
Bitcoin has far too many advantages over its competitors to point out: the absence of a leader, the fact that Bitcoin is permissionless and trustless but above all the fact that Bitcoin is fully decentralized.
Since investors have finally understood that Bitcoin is still the king of the cryptocurrency industry, they are buying Bitcoin as a priority now and its market dominance is approaching 70% by the end of 2019.
In 2020, this trend will continue and even accelerate. I predict that Bitcoin’s dominance in the cryptocurrency market will exceed 80%.
This prediction is the logical continuation of my first prediction for which I see the price of Bitcoin reaching $50K. Such an increase will attract more and more investors who will buy Bitcoin massively which will increase de facto its dominance in the market.
Prediction #3: Bitcoin Adoption By Merchants Will Increase Sharply
Over the past decade, Bitcoin has proven its strength as a store of value. The populations of emerging Latin American countries led by corrupt rulers have been able to use Bitcoin to their advantage to protect themselves from the unlimited monetary expansion decided by these rulers.
Bitcoin has already proven its strength as a store of value and will continue to do so in the future.
From now on, Bitcoin must show that it can also be a real medium of exchange and means of payment. To do this, the support of Bitcoin as a means of payment by merchants needs to accelerate worldwide.
My prediction for 2020 is that support for Bitcoin as a means of payment will accelerate sharply.
A good example of this is the fact that in France, which is one of the ten largest economic powers in the world, discussions are underway to have Bitcoin offered in 25,000 points of sale by 30 major retailers.
Prediction #4: Lightning Network Won’t Be Ready For The Masses
The end of 2017 showed the limits of the Bitcoin Blockchain in terms of scalability. Indeed, the strong influx of Bitcoin transactions had caused many slowdowns with very long validation delays and sharply rising transaction fees.
Many had then criticized the aging Bitcoin technology without even realizing that Bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency that has to cope with such a high volume of transactions.
These problems are a good thing in a way because it shows that the adoption of Bitcoin is progressing.
One solution adopted by the community to improve the scalability of Bitcoin is the implementation of the Lightning Network protocol. By enabling the creation of micro payment channels, the Lightning Network is intended to relieve the Bitcoin Blockchain by reducing the volume of transactions to be processed.
Progress has been made but unfortunately things are taking longer than expected and the Lightning Network will still not be ready for use by the masses in 2020.
This lack of widespread use of the Lightning Network raises questions as to how the Bitcoin Blockchain will be able to absorb in 2020 a volume of transactions equivalent to, or even greater than, that at the end of 2017.
Prediction #5: Transaction Fees On The Bitcoin Blockchain Will Rise Sharply
In May 2020, the Bitcoin Blockchain will experience the third Halving in its history. Thus, the reward awarded to miners validating a block of transactions will decrease from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC.
The number of new Bitcoins mined will therefore decrease, reinforcing Bitcoin’s scarcity.
This scarcity of newly created Bitcoins will add to the competition between the miners responsible for ensuring the safety of the Bitcoin Blockchain.
The expected sharp increase in the price of Bitcoin is expected to lead to a sharp increase in the volume of transactions to be validated on the Bitcoin Blockchain. This influx of transactions will inevitably clog the network, which has not yet solved its scalability problems.
With a decrease in the reward allocated for mining a block, I predict that miners will significantly increase transaction fees in order to continue to make their business profitable.
On the other hand, the sharp increase in the price of Bitcoin could compensate for the decrease in the reward from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. This last prediction is therefore the one I am least sure of.
Making predictions in a market as volatile as Bitcoin is never an easy thing to do. Nevertheless, it is an interesting exercise that I have gladly lent myself to in this story. I will take stock at the end of the year 2020 to see if I was right or far from the truth.
On your side, feel free to use the comments to give me your predictions about Bitcoin for 2020.