If You Had Invested $X,XXX.XX Into Bitcoin In 20XX We Would Have A Totally Different Market Today.
Countering The Most Annoying Headline Fallacy In Bitcoin.
I see it all the time. “If you had invested $1,000 in BTC in 2012 you’d have over $1,000,000 today!” While empirically true in the sense that people who actually did it got those returns, it is patently false in the literal sense that if you had done it, the outcomes would never have been the same. Many times when this rhetorical device is deployed, people are trying to get others to buy into Bitcoin before they’re truly informed. Most of the time it is just pushing a catchy headline. This is pushing an economic fallacy of past performance indicating future results.
I will tell you a few things that are true in regards to people that did buy Bitcoin early, and from among them, the people that will get the real returns in the long run. If you bought into Bitcoin prior to start of 2013, there is a 50% chance you were any of:
- A lucky fool.
- Buying selling/drugs.
- A cryptography nerd.
- Friends with someone of the above.
- All of the above at once.
I am including myself among the cryptography nerds and lucky fools. Truly a base passion for cryptography and the cypherpunk movement brought me to it. I saw potential in Bitcoin because of where I came from in the intellectual tradition of the cypherpunk movement, Bitcoin was an evolutionary tool and technology. I was a lucky fool because even though I saw this potential early, I failed to truly grasp it and focus all my resources on this potential early on. At the time I became interested in Bitcoin, it was the most interesting thing I was reading about, and it still is today. But it wasn’t my absolute top priority, which was a mistake.
I don’t stress it though. The people that will really see returns from the Bitcoin revolution in the long run are the people that understand cryptography and the way it changes the way we interact with each other. Cryptography is the fundamental revolution powering Bitcoin, and the cypherpunks will prevail in the long run I believe.
Something I have consistently noticed, if you speculated over $1,000 in BTC in 2012, there is a 50% chance you’re being really antagonistic about it right now. It’s a little cliche now, but in harsher words: “there’s a 50% chance you’re being a d*** about it.”
If you speculated in Bitcoin before December 2012, you either saw the opportunity or you were plain lucky, and if you saw the opportunity you were in the lucky category too. I say speculated because back then it wasn’t quite the sure bet it has been today. In 2012 I could have confidently said Bitcoin would go from $5 to $100. I would have never placed a firm bet on $10,000 back then though. 99.99% of people from this time making the claim that they would have confidently put Bitcoin this high are full of hype and hot air. There were plenty of people with a glimmering hope that this would happen, myself included. That said, we must never forget that we spent nearly a whole year with Bitcoin down from significant peaks at two different points in Bitcoin history.
“Nothing is a sure thing until you’re looking back it and it is done.”
I don’t think being antagonistic, pushing a “fear of missing out” attitude, or a “get rich quick” mentality are effective ways of getting people to be into and understand Bitcoin and cryptocurrency. All of these attitudes turn people away, make them anxious, and generally put a bad public face on the image of Bitcoin. It’s really upsetting to me when I see this.
When it comes to Bitcoin evangelism, there is one thing that really, truly, consistently works. Inviting people to try Bitcoin. Giving people Bitcoin with an expectation of nothing in return, save for their interest in the matter, and their time in setting up a wallet. In the early days I offered to give away hundreds of Bitcoins, most people said no, or they said “maybe later” In my time promoting Bitcoin since 2012, I have found that that the people that became the most active and interested in Bitcoin were the ones I gave Bitcoin away to. I have found the people that put money into Bitcoin were mostly the ones I personally welcomed into the ecosystem with coins from my wallet.
These people have become some of the most passionate advocates of Bitcoin I know, and a lot of them have made significantly more off Bitcoin than I have. But that is okay, because I know the work I have done has fundamentally contributed to making Bitcoin as valuable as it is today. I want people to believe in Bitcoin, and the decentralized vision of commerce it promotes. Through my work I know more people have seen that vision.
As for the people that didn’t take free Bitcoins from me — They’re asking me how to buy in right now. They’ve become more interested and less skeptical with time. They’re now at the point that they’re ready to put money in, and they’re ready to be advocates for the Bitcoin dream. If all of these people had taken free coins and invested when I introduced them to it, the market would be very different today. There would have been more money in it sooner, and the price would be higher now. Maybe some of them would have cashed out big time and shrunk the market. Who really knows what would have happened, but we can all be sure that the Bitcoin market would be totally different if everyone that wished they put $100 into BTC in 2012 actually did.
One thing I do know though: Bitcoin still has room to grow. Bitcoin can acquire more users. Bitcoin can serve more use cases. While we may have several chains of Bitcoin running right now, the markets will decide which are best in the long run. Bitcoin can still reach for further heights in value and valuation. Despite there being competing chains running, the fact that the Bitcoin community and market will choose the winners, and not a central governing authority, shows that the Bitcoin dream is still here. It is alive, it is doing well, and it is thriving.
Nothing is a sure thing until you’re looking back it and it is done. So if you invest in Bitcoin today, five years from now you can come back to me, share your own Bitcoin journey, and then we’ll know for sure how much you would have made or lost by investing in Bitcoin at the time you were ready to and did it. Until then, I look forward to seeing what you learn and do in the meantime.
If you like this article, follow for more no-nonsense and no-hype cryptocurrency content. Thanks for reading. — Zach (https://1za.ch)
