How prepared are we for the next big solar storm?
When sunspots explode, their geomagnetic power can wreak havoc on Earth. But can anything be done to limit the damage?
For Richard C. Carrington, the morning of September 1, 1859 began like all others. He took tea in his study before beginning his daily observations of the sun from his country house and observatory in the hills of Surrey, England. For some days, he had been witnessing increased activity on the solar surface.
Carrington, an amateur astronomer and active member of the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS), had been studying the sun and its various phenomena since discovering a prominent lack of thorough solar observations in the society’s archives in 1852. In those ensuing seven years, Carrington had become somewhat of an expert in observing and recording sunspots — temporary darkened areas on the solar surface which are caused by concentrations of magnetic flux inhibiting convection.
While sketching some newly-appeared (and rather enormous) sunspots on the morning of September 1, Carrington saw something extraordinary. “While engaged… in taking my customary observations of the forms and positions of solar spots… two patches of intensely bright and white light broke out,” he wrote in a notice for the Royal Astronomical Society’s monthly journal.
“My first impression was that by some chance a ray of light had penetrated a hole in the screen attached to the object-glass… for the brilliancy was fully equal to that of direct sun-light… but once interrupting the current observation… I saw I was an unprepared witness of a very different affair.”
Carrington is now regarded as one of the first astronomers in history to witness and record a solar flare and its ensuing ejection of a radioactive plasma cloud (known as a coronal mass ejection or CME). Alongside the account of fellow amateur Richard Hodgson, Carrington’s observation became the foundation for the study of space weather and the volatility of the sun.
Following his report, Carrington would correctly correlate this solar flare with a major geomagnetic storm that would strike Earth in the following hours, in an event now dubbed the ‘Carrington Event’. The intense magnetic interference caused by the solar ejection severely damaged telegraph systems across the Northern Hemisphere and resulted in numerous atmospheric anomalies.
The auroras, normally seen only in the extreme north and south of the planet, were affected by the magnetic power of the storm and the northern lights were witnessed as far south as Arizona. Telegraph poles threw sparks as the storm struck Earth, and operators reported still being able to send and receive telegraphs despite having disconnected power supplies.
The global damage due to the storm was mild due to the limited interconnectivity of the planet at the time. Electrical communications like telegraphs had expanded massively through the mid 19th century, but wireless technologies like GPS and satellites wouldn’t be invented for at least another 100 years. Regardless, for the people at the time, this was a remarkable and somewhat ominous sign that space weather could have a palpable impact on life on Earth.
However, in today’s electronically intertwined world, a geomagnetic storm of the same scale as the 1859 event could have catastrophic effects on the global population. So, what do we do when the day finally comes? And is there any way we can truly prepare for a solar reckoning?
A Growing Threat
While communication disturbances in a world abuzz with billions of messages per day seems bad, the implications of a powerful geomagnetic storm striking the Earth today are far more dire than being unable to get on Twitter. Throughout history, as the world has developed into a web of interconnectivity, a contemporaneous increase in the impact of these storms has also been recorded.
A number of particularly intense solar ejections in May 1921, for example, caused more damage than the 1859 instance — this time melting electrical apparatus, burning fuses and igniting signal towers across the world. Serious fires began simultaneously in places like Sweden and New York, with the latter catching headlines due to its proximity to Grand Central Station.
A now-global telegraph service was brought to a standstill everywhere, from Japan to Jamaica. Overhead telegraph lines crackled from the geomagnetic currents and auroras over the skies of Los Angeles and Atlanta. And for three days, CMEs rocked the Earth’s magnetic field and scientists’ magnetometers became useless, with strip chart recorders pegged permanently to the top of the paper.
Even more serious implications followed later into the 20th century. A number of serious solar flares in August 1972 resulted in the immediate and unintended detonation of 4,000 U.S. magnetic-influence sea mines off the coast of Vietnam. The flares’ impact on the Earth’s own geomagnetic field interfered with the mines’ sensors and caused them to explode prematurely, as though they had come in contact with something. This caused the U.S. armed forces to consider, for the first time, the impact of space weather on their operations across the globe.
Nowadays, everything from airplanes to nuclear weapons rely on GPS and satellites to work properly — and the risk of significant problems affecting these technologies is high. If a potent CME strikes Earth, we should expect a global communications blackout along with the possibility of power grid outages in many countries. Transformers across the world, including those which deliver electricity to remote communities, may be destroyed and leave thousands without power for a number of months.
Even if the power does stay on, many electronic devices will not work as expected with services integral to today’s human society being affected. Navigation systems would be rendered inoperable, credit cards and digital tills could fail and many people may find it difficult to pay for goods like food and water. Even modern petrol stations rely on electricity and intelligent systems in regards to pumping fuel, so there may be issues in keeping cars and lorries on the road.
Thankfully, life on Earth would be shielded from the intense radiation thanks to its robust shielding, but satellites could be fatally damaged by it — potentially bringing key services like long-range communication, GPS tracking and weather forecasting to a halt. Emergency services are somewhat dependent on information gathered from satellites, so any damage to them could lead to difficulty reaching help.
Even under ordinary conditions, cosmic-ray particles erode solar panels on satellites and reduce power generation by about 2 percent annually. Such an overwhelming blast of radiation can wipe out years of product longevity in just few hours, as well as produce hundreds of glitches — ranging from harmless incorrect commands to explosive electronic discharges.
Even with improvements, some superstorm effects are harder to defend against. When intense radiation interferes with the Earth’s magnetosphere, it causes the atmosphere to expand which increases the amount of drag on satellites that sit below 600km. Following a major cosmic event, there will be considerable risk of low-orbiting satellites burning up in the atmosphere well ahead of schedule.
Time is of the Essence
So, how can we brace ourselves for such extreme eventualities? Planning is essential, along with public awareness. Magnetic storms which strike the Earth rarely get coverage in mainstream media — stories discussing them are typically reserved for science and astronomy enthusiast magazines.
Sten F. Odenwald, astronomy professor at the Catholic University of America, argues that the forecasting of solar and geomagnetic storms is key to limiting to the damage. “With adequate warning, satellite operators can defer critical manoeuvring and watch for anomalies that, without quick action, could escalate into critical emergencies,” he wrote in Planetary Science in 2008.
Engineers continue to work to improve the resilience of satellites, and have altered some materials and coatings to protect them better from cosmic rays. Thicker shielding acts as a buffer between the outside and the precious internals, and lower operating voltages mean there is a lower risk of destructive discharges. But the danger for satellites is still high, which is why timely warnings are crucial.
If notifications of danger can be spread wider to commercial enterprises like airlines, then pilots will be able to prepare for flight diversions and power grid operators can monitor susceptible network components to minimise potential downtime. All of the parts in this larger machine should work in unison to help prevent catastrophe when the big one hits.
Agencies such as NASA continue to develop space-weather forecasting capabilities, but some researchers feel our ability to predict incoming problems hasn’t progressed past the 1970s. Rather than depending on a long-term network of satellites tailored for the sole of purpose of forecasting and analysis, scientists instead use the data from a wide range of research drones orbiting the Earth to check conditions in space. These tidbits of information give space agencies a patchwork idea of potential threats, rather than a complete understanding of what might be coming our way.
Odenwald also argues that from a monitoring perspective, agencies should launch and maintain inexpensive space buoys to check weather conditions regularly. This project, more streamlined in its vision, would do well to protect Earth’s vulnerable networks from interference and potential disaster.
If we really want to protect our technological infrastructure, investment in forecasting capabilities should be a priority. As science develops a better understanding of the physics of solar storms and works towards ways to protect the Earth, all the rest of us can do is batten down the hatches and wait for the next solar superstorm.
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