#3 In the process, we trust: Chelsea’s proactiveness — a lesson for Arsenal, Season Stats, Fair price for Xhaka?
Chelsea’s proactiveness — a lesson for Arsenal
Last summer, there was a general acceptance that it would take atleast a couple of windows for the rest of the Big Six to catch up with Manchester City and Liverpool, and it wasn’t an unreasonable assumption given the gulf between the quality of the two pioneer English teams and the rest.
But Chelsea acted the swiftest amongst the rest and effectively so. While other clubs were busy whining about the financial instability caused by the pandemic, Chelsea and Roman Abramovich took advantage of it. And by no means I want to disrespect what football clubs have gone through all over the world, especially in the lower leagues, due to the pandemic. Though most of the ‘Big Six’ owners have enough depth to their pockets to replicate what Chelsea did.
With Roman Abramovich in-charge, Chelsea would have eventually elevated themselves to the level City and Liverpool were operating at. However, Chelsea’s proactiveness worked as a catalyst for the process, and the trophies they might have been winning a season or two later came right now.
Achraf Hakimi, Kai Havertz, Stefan de Vrij, and even Paulo Dybala were all available. These were the players that would have otherwise attracted a lot of interest from the big clubs, however, most teams had a free run at them thanks to the financial crisis. Had KSE been smart enough to recognise the opportunity and pulled the trigger down on a £200m transfer window, Arsenal would have found themselves playing Champions League football next season, at the very least.
KSE might still end up spending from their pockets a very similar amount staggered over the next few windows, but they won’t get the same quality they would have got last summer for their money.
I have said it time and again, it’s not about just spending money, it’s about how smartly you can spend whatever you’re willing to. Had KSE had a genuine 5-year plan for Arsenal with a well-defined budget, they would have recognised that spending most of that budget in the last summer might well have cut short our rebuild process by a year or two.
But once again, as has been the theme throughout their tenure at Arsenal, the Kroenkes & KSE were found lacking.
Season Stats
Introducing a new section to the newsletter, I’ll be talking about one particular stat each week regarding Arsenal’s season and how it showcases the performances of various Arsenal players.
This week, we’re talking about xThreat developed by Karun Singh, it’s a brilliant metric that helps in quantifying the threat produced by a player with his passing. A lot of times we tend to disregard the progressiveness of a player’s game as our judgment is usually made upon the more glamorous output-reflecting metrics.
xThreat, however, helps in crediting the players who move the ball from less offensively active areas to more exploitable areas of the pitch, allowing the attackers and creators to get into the game. If you want to learn more about the metric, this is where you should head over to.
Interestingly, you’ll d find a lot of underrated players to be at the forefront of this metric. The likes of Granit Xhaka and Dani Ceballos have made rare such appearances so higher up the rankings in any statistical observation.
Bukayo Saka has 8 goal contributions to his name including 5 goals and 3 assists in the Premier League this season, not an extraordinary contribution on the face of it. By no means does it justifies his talent, however, his underwhelming output is down to various different roles he has played including playing in the defense and his under-par shooting.
Though, xT does justice to his impressive contribution to the team this season as he ranks the highest in terms of positive xT accumulated amongst all the Arsenal players. That is due to his ability to constantly find pockets of spaces and creating potentially productive scenarios for his teammates.
Granit Xhaka has recently made comments citing his value to Arsenal and while I personally don’t appreciate such self-crediting comments, he isn’t wrong with his judgment. He has easily had one of his better seasons in an Arsenal shirt and has largely gone underappreciated for his contribution to the Gunners’ buildup play and his ability to orchestrate a move from the midfield.
Dani Ceballos and Willian took a lot of criticism for their performances this season and while much of it was justified, however, they did make a positive contribution to the side especially when in-possession, without really stacking up the numbers to prove it, however, xT, once again, credit them for their contributions.
What’s a fair price for Granit Xhaka?
There has been a debate going around if Arsenal should sell Granit Xhaka or not and if they should, then at what price?
As reported by The Athletic in this article, Granit Xhaka wants to leave. And it is his will for a move away that is acting as the driving force behind Arsenal’s pursuit to ship off arguably their second-best midfielder after Thomas Partey.
The price quoted in media reports has been around the €20 million mark, which has raised few eyebrows amongst the Arsenal fanbase and expectedly so. The Swiss international still has two years left on his contract and is clearly one of Mikel Arteta’s trusted men in the Arsenal dressing room.
There is no need to sell him neither a want from the decision-makers at the Emirates, but when a player wants to leave there is only so much a club can do.
Transfermarkt rates him at €22 million, however, there have been no major links to Xhaka except for AS Roma meaning Arsenal can’t ignite a bidding war. While keeping him for another season would mean taking an even bigger hit to his potential value.
Arsenal’s hands are tied here, however, €20 million isn’t the worst outcome in a certain scenario.
While there has been a lot of scrutiny around his price tag, though, the fee structure hasn’t been given enough weightage to, and in the current circumstances, it is an underrated aspect of any potential deal. Most of the deals last season were loan deals with an option to buy, any such deal for Granit Xhaka would be a huge setback for Arsenal as they wouldn’t only lose a key asset but would also not receive a credible fee to replace him either.
However, if they could get a sum of €20 million upfront, that could prove to be a key asset in any potential deal where the fee is usually staggered over multiple installments. A €20 million fee could be stretched by Arsenal to probably attain a player of €50–60 million valuation and it would certainly be beneficial for the club in the current cash crunched market.
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