#6 In the process, we trust: Dušan Vlahović. Demystifying the Stats

There is obvious curiosity around Dušan Vlahović ever since David Ornstein and other reputable journalists reported about our keen interest in the 21-year-old Serbian forward. And in today’s day and age with data available on such a large scale, it’s usually the preferred medium to get an impression of a footballer rather than watching 90 minutes of football games which you otherwise might not follow keenly. But in the Serbian’s case, stats could be misleading, partially because the sample size is neither large enough nor diverse enough and partially because he doesn’t play in the most productive system.

For example, you could look at his goal-scoring record and be impressed by the 16 goals he has scored this season in Serie A but then only 10 of them came from open play. Similarly, you might feel his xG overperformance of 145% this season is unsustainable but at the same time, he ranks in the top 16% forwards in the big 5 leagues in the past 365 days in terms of xG accumulated per 90. So where does the truth lie, as always somewhere in between the two extremes.

The fact is, in most cases an overperformance of 145% isn’t the most sustainable over a long period but even if he couldn’t achieve the same levels of overperformance his xG numbers indicate Vlahović would still score a decent number of goals. He is averaging 0.41 non-penalty xG (npxG) per 90 since the 2020–21 season in Serie A, which is at par with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s npxG return in the 2019–20 season in the Premier League, his one of the best seasons in an Arsenal shirt. In simpler terms, he can be a 1 in 2 (1 goal in 2 matches) striker and considering his age and the fact he is only gonna improve from here on, that is more than a decent return.

In terms of his passing, Vlahović’s stats don’t show him in a good light, he’s completing only 69.9% of his passes this season, in comparison, Alex Lacazette’s pass completion rate is 74.8%. Similarly, Lacazette is averaging 1.25 key passes per 90 this season while Vlahović is only making 1.01 key passes per 90 this season.

While he hasn’t been as good as the Frenchman — who by the way is one of the better link-up strikers in the world — the man he would be replacing in the Arsenal side, his improvement since the last season has been impressive. He was completing just 0.52 key passes per 90 last season, while his combined number for passes into the final 3rd and penalty box accounted for just 0.74 per 90. This season that number has leaped upto 1.49 per 90. Still not there but he’s progressing well.

One of the biggest red signs for Vlahović’s compatibility with Mikel Arteta’s system is his poor pressing numbers, out of possession Arteta wants his players to be aggressive and press intensely during the opposition’s build-up phase. But Vlahović is averaging in the bottom 18% for pressures attempted in the past 365 days for forwards in the big 5 leagues. In terms of raw numbers, the Serbian is attempting only 9.04 pressures per 90 this season in comparison to Alex Lacazette’s 19.6 pressures per 90.

Now on the face value, it looks like a big no for Vlahović in Arteta’s system but that’s where we need to factor in the system he plays in at Florentina. Coach Vincenzo Italiano’s side is rock bottom for pressures attempted per 90 this season in the Serie A, showcasing his clear instructions for his players to be conservative with their pressing. And that holds true for the former Partizan forward as well, as his primary role in Italiano’s out-of-possession tactics is to cut off passing lanes for the opposition rather than to actively press.

Dušan Vlahović is a bit like Aaron Ramsdale in the way that he has never played in a system where his qualities could shine out the way we want his stats to represent. But at the same time, he has some rough edges in his game and is far from being a finished product, and infact that could be one of the inspirations behind Arsenal’s pursuit.

The Gunners are dipping into the market for a talent who could have many suitors in a more favourable junction of the season and possibly at a more advanced stage in his career but to avoid competition Arsenal are flexing their financial muscles to pull off an otherwise tricky deal.

They see a talent who within a few seasons can be coached into a top player for them and in my own humble opinion, I think they’re spot on.

All the stats mentioned are courtesy of Fbref.com and are valid as of 7th January 2022.