Decision-making 101: Single Decisive Reason

Leaders need to make high-quality decisions — fast. At Human and Machine we use Reid Hoffman’s “Single Decisive Reason” (SDR) principle. It’s an incredibly powerful decision-making tool, especially for rapidly scaling startups. Here’s why you should use SDR — and how to apply it to your next big decision.

The perils of “blended reasoning”

When you have a dozen reasons to do something… don’t. As Nassim Nicholas Taleb explains in Antifragile, giving myriad justifications for an action exposes inner uncertainty.

If you have more than one reason to do something (choose a doctor or veterinarian, hire a gardener or an employee, marry a person, go on a trip), just don’t do it. It does not mean that one reason is better than two, just that by invoking more than one reason you are trying to convince yourself to do something. Obvious decisions (robust to error) require no more than a single reason. by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Reid Hoffman agrees. When Reid was considering a trip to China, he could think of a few good reasons to go. But he couldn’t think of 1 single great reason.Reid sensed the risk of blended reasoning — making his decision with multiple justifications. He decided against the trip to China.

If I go for a blended reason, I’ll almost surely come back and feel like it was a waste a time. by Reid Hoffman

Why are blended reasons so dangerous? Because weak reasons rarely build on each other — but when they’re numerous, they appear compelling.To put it another way: fuzzy inputs generate fuzzy outputs.

How to uncover your Single Decisive Reason

Finding your SDR requires more work than following cloudy blended reasoning! But think of it as up-front investment to sharpen your thinking and prevent misalignment.Here’s an example from Human and Machine…We onboard customers 1:1 in 60-minute sessions — tailoring their coaching programme to their individual goals. Should we continue this strategy as our customer base grows?

• There are many good reasons to scale personalised coaching programmes.
• There are also many good reasons not to scale personalised coaching programmes.
• So should we — or should we not — scale personalised coaching programmes?

1. Brainstorm reasons for and against

Start by listing all the reasons for and against the decision (see link)
Here’s a list of pros and cons for scaling Human and Machine’s personalised coaching programmes:

Pros

• Customers will understand the programme deeply.
• Customers will experience white-glove service.
• We can answer prospect questions and identify service improvements.
• We hear prospect feedback, which informs service decisions.

Cons

• Personalised coaching programmes: individual customers is expensive.
• We would need to 10x our coaching teams.
• We would need to expand our coaching teams across time zones.

2. Categorise your reasons

Ignore the final tally of pros and cons — that steers you toward blended reasoning. Instead, group reasons by category:

3. Prioritise your categories

Now ask: which category is most important? This reveals your SDR. At Human and Machine, customer experience is the most important category. We wouldn’t prioritise other categories at the expense of customer experience. Therefore, we should scale personalised coaching programmes — and push ourselves to make it work! This approach is deceptively simple, but surprisingly powerful. Sharing your SDR will communicate intent, ensure alignment, and keep everyone focused on what matters!