INCERTO

On The Cluster of Charlatans, Zero Interest Rate Virgins, & Crypto Tumors

(Preface to the 15th year Italian edition of The Black Swan)

An essay as a foreword for Tom Holland’s Dominion

The war in Ukraine is a confrontation between two systems, one modern, legalistic, decentralized and multicephalous; the other archaic…

Clearly Covid affects the old, disproportionately. But so do practically almost all other ailments. A simple fact of life, in a population…

When you catch someone with a shoddy-but-carefully-curated story, Edward Snowden, producing the mother of bad faith arguments (in effect…

Foreword to Mark Spitznagel’s book Safe Haven [Amazon]

Foreword for Cut the Knot: Probability Riddles by Alexander B.

Religions create highly differentiated belief clusters and mentalities that have little to do with their theologies.

Incompetence and Errors in Reasoning Around Face Covering

(With Mark Spitznagel)

Background : “IQ” is a stale test meant to measure mental capacity but in fact mostly measures extreme unintelligence (learning…

Clearing the discourse of abuses and abusers. The more you institutionalize rules of ethical behavior that should be voluntary (say…

When selecting a surgeon for your next brain procedure, should you pick a surgeon who looks like a butcher or one who looks like a surgeon…

(Skin in the Game was embargoed (meaning no copy was sent to reviewers), as the book explains the agency problem of reviewers. Three UK…

A central chapter that crystallizes all my work. In forth. Skin in the Game

[One of the more technical (and optional) chapters, at the end of Skin of the Game]