War in Ukraine? It’s Already Started.
We need to ask the next questions.
War in Ukraine? There’s a trivial answer and a critical answer that will shape the remainder of our century. The trivial answer is “yes” and it’s already happening. Russia has been at war with Ukraine since February 2014. Russia has refused to recognize the government of Ukraine since the Euromaidan protests led the pro-Russian president of Ukraine to flee to Moscow. Immediately thereafter, Russian military forces occupied Crimea and unmarked Russian forces crossed into the separatist pro-Russian People’s Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. President Obama responded by organizing with other states to ostracize Russia from much of the international system: kicking it out of the G7 (then G8) club of major industrialized states, closing significant diplomatic (spy) missions on the territory of the U.S., and imposing sanctions that nearly crippled the Russian economy. President Putin and Russia accepted these penalties without reversing course: Russia’s domination of Ukraine is a prize worth (almost) any cost. Besides, the 2016 election gave the Russians hope when they helped to promote the election of Donald Trump, a “useful idiot” with a long history of attempting to make a profitable deal with Putin and Russian oligarchs, over Hillary Clinton, who was one of the foreign actors who helped to enable the Euromaidan movement to…
