After Trump/Kim: The World Is More Dangerous Now.
Now that it’s been a few days, let’s reflect about what just happened in Singapore.
Upon landing home, Donald Trump tweeted that there is no longer a nuclear threat from North Korea. Oh boy. On the contrary, the Singapore Summit just made the world a more dangerous place.
In Singapore, Trump validated North Korea’s long-term nuclear strategy, encouraged dictators around the globe to adopt it too, and increased the risk of unnecessary war should anyone misstep along the way.
Meeting with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, Trump played a video showing North Korea’s alleged prosperity should Pyongyang denuclearize. But on live TV, the rest of the world saw a video of how North Korea was taking advantage of a desperately over-confident and deeply under-prepared American president.
North Korea’s Ten Step Playbook is simple.
Step 1: Make enough noise about nuclear weapons to get Trump’s attention.
Step 2: Trade insults. Be sure to give as good as you get.
Step 3: Endure sanctions.
Step 4: Pro-actively offer to cool things off.
Step 5: Angle for a summit meeting.
Step 6: Smile big for the cameras.
Step 7: Flower Trump with complements, and let him talk… and talk… and talk.
Step 8: Get him to concede major points as he meanders.
Step 9: Make it seem like you’re reciprocating, but don’t use any language you haven’t used before. He won’t know the difference.
Step 10: If the United States doesn’t follow through, see Step 1.
The Ten Step Playbook works for one big reason: Trump isn’t focused on peace. Trump’s priority is dominating news cycles and being flattered. After a disastrous G7 summit, he was under even more pressure than usual to change the story to something positive. If peace happens, then great, but Trump won’t let it get in the way of a good story.
Pyongyang’s core interests are scoring a propaganda windfall, security guarantees, and resources like energy and food. After this meeting, Pyongyang has to believe its strategy has been validated: Having nuclear weapons pays.
In the meantime, Donald Trump’s naïve approach to delicate international diplomacy has encouraged nuclear proliferation around the world. From Russia to Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, and beyond, autocratic regimes saw the unquestioned benefits of nuclear saber-rattling.
Vladimir Putin must feel incredibly validated for touting his new “invincible” nuclear weapon this past March. Trump liberated Tehran to restart uranium enrichment if it wants. And we have to assume Caracas and Havana are now wondering how to get in the game.
If other despots can walk Pyongyang’s fine line, they’ll reap the benefits of showing their citizens that they, too, can make the American president travel halfway around the world and extract significant concessions at little or no cost.
The trick is not over- or under-playing your hand. Syria’s Bashar al-Assad got into some minor military trouble with Trump for actually attacking people, while Iraq’s Saddam Hussein and Libya’s Muhammar Ghaddafi offer very differerent cautionary tales about full disarmament. With over 25 years of experience, the North Koreans have mastered the art of balancing the bellicose and the benign.
But in the Trump era, Pyongyang’s Ten Step gambit is more dangerous than under rational US leadership. Trump is so emotionally unstable and uninterested in the consequences of his actions that things could unravel quickly. If North Korea — or any other government to adopt the strategy — miscalculates, they risk a massive, preemptive American strike.
Trump’s allies have praised the Singapore summit as, at least, an improvement over where we were just a few months ago, when Kim Jong Un was firing off test missiles and Trump was calling him “Rocket Man.” That’s 180 degrees off.
The best-case scenario is that an American president has legitimized and made significant concessions to a murderous dictator while encouraging nuclear proliferation around the world.
The worst case is unmentionable.
Jim Arkedis is the president of Indispensable.