FICCI Economic Outlook Survey (July 2022): India’s GDP to Grow 7% this Fiscal
The Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) reported on Thursday that the current fiscal year’s growth prognosis for India’s economy is 7%, which is lower than the earlier expectation of 7.4% and is mainly attributable to continued geopolitical uncertainty. In April, FICCI projected that India’s growth rate for 2022–23 will be 7.4 percent.
According to the FICCI’s Economic Outlook Survey (July 2022)’s projections, the growth rates for industry and the services sector are expected to be 6.2% and 7.8%, respectively, while agriculture and associated activities are expected to increase by 3.0%. Also, it forecasts that the retail inflation rate will be 6.7 percent for the fiscal year 2022–23.
Six consecutive months leading up to June saw annual consumer inflation remain higher than the 2 percent to 6 percent tolerance limit that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had set. As a result, prompting economists in the survey predict that the policy repo rate will be hiked by the RBI from 4.9 percent to 5.65 percent by the end of the fiscal year.
According to the survey participants, the Indian economy will experience a downturn in the near to medium term. However, it will still expand consistently to emerge as the economy that is growing at the fastest rate in the world.
Note: Earlier this week, Morgan Stanley reduced its growth prediction for India’s fiscal year 2022–23 to 7.2 percent, down from 7.6 percent, citing deteriorating global trade as the primary reason for the revision.