Climate change and temperature extremity in Boulder, CO
As time continues to pass, our planet’s resources continue to become more and more scarce. As we consume, we also poison and leave behind a trail of disaster. In the past decade alone, we have done irreversible damage to our planet; severely harming wildlife, air, water, and as time continues to pass, ourselves. Global warming is a legitimate concern that I would say is often overlooked in our society as a nonexistent, or at least unimportant issue. However, the time we have left to save our planet is slipping away, especially as we continue to evolve and consume even more resources. For this reason, I asked myself; although temperatures are getting hotter, is the rate at which these temperatures are warming getting more or less extreme?
I decided to take a look at the past decade of weather data, specifically analyzing the volatility of temperature over this period. The volatility of temperature is defined as the degree of variation in which temperature is varying over time. In other words, it can show you insight into the rate of change at which the overall temperature is changing. I think that this is a valuable statistic, as although we know temperatures are getting hotter over time due to global warming, we don’t exactly know the rate of change at which these temperatures are changing and how much time we actually have left.
In order to calculate the volatility of these temperatures over time, I chose to look specifically at Boulder, Colorado. Boulder is the city I currently live and I had access to over ten years of temperature data for the city. I also chose to analyze each day’s average, minimum, and maximum temperatures and calculate the volatility for each over the decade to account for more variation. In order to do this, I had to calculate a couple of summary statistics. From 2010 to late 2022 in Boulder, I found that the mean maximum temperature was 65.75 degrees Fahrenheit, the mean minimum temperature was 41.94 degrees Fahrenheit, and the average mean temperature was 52.86 degrees Fahrenheit. These numbers were lower than I initially expected, but after considering the winters and freezing temperatures in Colorado, I found that the winter temperatures had the most outliers and heavily weighed the averages down. These general means are useful for analysis over a year, but they don’t say much regarding long-term temperature change/variation. For example, the mean temperature for all of 2020 was less than a degree higher than the mean temperature for all of 2010 (52.85 degrees in 2010, 53.55 degrees in 2020). So, this is why it’s so important to analyze the rate of change in the change of temperature and not just the overall degree-change over time.
As I continued to move forward with my analysis, I calculated a couple of other meaningful statistics, including the variance, standard deviation, and eventually the volatility for daily mean, daily maximum, and daily minimum in Boulder over the ten-year window. My final results put daily average temperature volatility at 32.96%, daily minimum temperature volatility at 37.9%, and daily maximum temperature volatility at 28.71%. I wasn’t exactly shocked by these results, but they affirmed my general idea that temperatures are getting more extreme. I can confidently say that the rate of change of temperatures in Boulder, Colorado, across daily average, minimum, and maximum, has gotten more extreme over the last decade. I also think it’s important to note that the percent differences in volatility signify an increase in the rate of change in temperature, but they also correspond to the seasons in a year (as I mentioned with the mean values). For example, although minimum temperatures had the highest volatility over the decade, you also have to consider that the “lows” in the winter have a lot more variety due to snow and sun, in comparison to the summers where the temperatures stay more consistent. However, the overall consensus of a >25% positive increase in temperature volatility for mean, minimum, and maximum temperatures goes to show that at least Boulder is experiencing more temperature-change extremity at increasingly faster rates. I think that these are statistics you can’t just “see” in the data or from a basic analysis, so I think it’s very important that awareness is spread regarding these increasing rates of extremity.
Overall, having the ability to analyze the volatility of even just a city has further opened my eyes to the prevalence and speed at which climate change is occurring. Although I can’t make broad claims with my results, only for the city of Boulder for just over a decade, it is necessary that a similar study of higher scale, such as across the nation, is performed. Climate change and extreme temperatures are serious issues for humankind and spreading awareness is the least we can all do for our planet.
