Impacts of Covid on Boulder Dynamics

Introduction:

The COVID-19 pandemic has reshaped the world, altering fundamental aspects of our lives in ways that are still being uncovered. Understanding these changes is not just a matter of curiosity but of necessity, especially in small communities like Boulder, Colorado, where shifts in dynamics are felt throughout the community. One such change became evident in my previous study, where I delved into a national dataset to unravel the pandemic’s multifaceted impacts. There, three key trends emerged:

1. Increased Workload with Stagnant Income: Across various demographics, people worked more hours but without a corresponding increase in income. This trend was not just a short-term anomaly but a persistent pattern, hinting at deeper economic and social shifts.

2. Elevated TV Consumption: The data revealed a marked increase in TV watching habits. This change, initially perceived as a casual shift in leisure activities, might be more indicative of deeper psychological and social transformations, such as increased isolation and the search for comfort in familiar, passive activities.

3. Changes in Marital Status: There was a noticeable trend of people staying single and getting married less. This shift could be reflecting broader changes in social interactions and personal priorities in the post-pandemic world.

Expanding on this premise, my current study dives into Boulder-specific data, focusing on the pandemic’s implications in education and crime. I argue that COVID-19 has precipitated a notable shift in Boulder’s dynamics, evidenced by declining college students’ GPAs, extended graduation timelines, and a mirrored relationship between online crime arrest rates and COVID-19 infection trends. These changes, while initially subtle, have had cascading effects on Boulder’s residents, altering their daily routines, work-life balance, and the nature of criminal activities.

Data & Methodology:

This analysis employs a range of visualization methods, including time series, scatterplots and box plots, to crystallize the exact relationship relationship between the pandemic and shifts in education and crime rates, by extracting insights from recent local data. The study hinges on two primary areas: the academic performance of students at the University of Colorado Boulder and local online crime arrests.

The first visualization, a time series graph, elucidates the impact of COVID-19 on education in Boulder. It plots the cumulative undergraduate GPA data from the University of Colorado Boulder against time, showcasing a significant decline. This visualization not only captures the immediate effects but also sets the stage for a deeper analysis of the pandemic’s long-term educational repercussions.

The second visualization, another time series, examines the connection between the pandemic and the time it takes CU Boulder students to graduate. This graph traces a concerning trend: an increasing average time to degree completion, particularly after 2020. The steep incline observed during the pandemic years starkly contrasts with the more gradual changes in previous years, suggesting a significant disruption in students’ academic progression due to the pandemic.

The third set of visualizations focuses on the realm of crime, specifically online crime, and its correlation with COVID-19 case rates. This analysis utilized a mix of time series, scatter and box plots. The time series graph presents a comparison between online crime arrest counts in Boulder and national COVID-19 case trends, revealing a striking synchronicity in their fluctuations.

To further solidify this relationship, a scatter plot was created, analyzing the correlation between COVID-19 cases and online crime arrests. The plot shows a moderate, positive correlation, as indicated by the correlation coefficient. The visualization is supplemented by a line of best fit, illustrating the proportional increase in online crime arrests with rising COVID-19 cases.

Academic Performance Decline

The shift to remote learning due to COVID-19 has led to a significant drop in student GPA at CU Boulder. Data shows a clear decline in academic performance coinciding with the pandemic onset. This is evident from the time series graph below, showing a consistent rise in GPAs until 2020, followed by a sharp fall after the switch to online classes.

This trend in Boulder aligns with findings from broader educational studies. Research from the U.S. Military Academy and Swiss universities reveal a general dip in student performance under online learning conditions, especially among less prepared students. For example, aWest Point study showed that online learning reduced a student’s grade by about 0.2 standard deviations, with the most significant impact on students with lower academic abilities.

Similarly, the Swiss research highlighted a dual effect of online lectures: they benefit high-ability students but harm the performance of low-ability students. This suggests a nuanced relationship between student ability and online learning effectiveness.

Large-scale studies from Colombia and California reinforce these findings, showing that students in online courses generally receive lower grades, struggle in subsequent coursework, and are less likely to graduate compared to in-person learners.

The consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on academic performance extend beyond GPA decreases. A time series analysis of CU Boulder data reveals an alarming trend in the average time students take to graduate. Since the switch to online learning, there’s been a notable increase in this duration, reaching its steepest spike in 2020, when CU switched to online learning. This rise suggests that the transition to remote learning has not just affected grades but also elongated students’ educational journeys.

This pattern aligns with a study on community college students in Virginia, which found a modest decrease in course completion rates following the abrupt shift to online learning. This downturn occurred despite indications of more lenient grading during the pandemic, pointing to the broader challenges of virtual learning environments. The study highlights that the negative impacts were particularly significant among lower-performing and less experienced students, highlighting the need for targeted support and outreach efforts in similar scenarios.

The lack of in-person interaction can lead to feelings of isolation and disconnectedness from the learning community, complicating student engagement with peers and instructors. This is critical in understanding Boulder’s situation, as these factors likely played a role in the increased time to degree and decreased course completion rates observed.

The data from Boulder, in the context of these wider educational studies, indicates that while online learning offers certain flexibilities, it also brings significant challenges. These findings are vital for educational institutions in Boulder and elsewhere as they consider how to support students in navigating the complexities of post-pandemic education.

Online Crime Surge

The COVID-19 pandemic has extended its influence beyond education, impacting the community of Boulders’ safety. The surge in online crime is a striking manifestation of this. Analysis reveals a notable correlation between the rise in online crime arrests in Boulder and national COVID-19 case trends, suggesting a pandemic-induced shift in criminal behaviors. This trend is particularly significant, considering the increased reliance on digital platforms during the pandemic, which may have created new opportunities for cybercriminals.

A comprehensive analysis, including time series and stacked correlations, was conducted to understand the nature of this crime shift. The analysis included all arrest counts in Boulder, demonstrating a clear pattern where arrests closely mirrored the peaks and troughs of the pandemic. Delving deeper, the study identified three primary types of online crimes that showed a strong correlation with COVID-19 cases: Extortion/Blackmail, and two categories of Pornography/Obscene Material (misdemeanor and felony). These categories were subsequently merged into a single “Online Crime” variable for a focused analysis.

A box-and-whisker plot was created to visualize the distribution of these crime types. The plot indicated that, on average, online crimes constituted a significant portion of total crimes during the pandemic months, with an average of about 7 for online crimes compared to about 12 for all other crimes. This distribution implies that, despite the high temporal correspondence of online crimes with COVID-19 trends, they represent an accurate portrayal of the overall crime landscape in Boulder.

To further understand the relationship between specific online crime trends and COVID-19 case counts, a dedicated time series analysis was conducted. This analysis showed that spikes in COVID-19 cases were closely followed by similar trends in online crime arrests, suggesting a temporal precedence and adding another layer of validity to the study.

CNN’s report on the pandemic-induced rise in online exploitation of children provides additional context to these findings. According to John Shehan, vice president of NCMEC’s Exploited Children Division, the pandemic, with the combination of an increasingly tech-savvy minor population and adults spending more time online, has created ideal conditions for cybercriminals, expanding the opportunities for exploitation, especially with more children at home and engaging in online activities. Shehan also noted a surge in reports during lockdown periods, implying a broader societal impact of the pandemic on online safety.

The widespread use of mainstream social media platforms contributes to this vulnerability. With platforms like Facebook, Snapchat, and Imgur reporting millions of exploitative content cases, it becomes clear these are not isolated incidents but part of a broader pattern influenced by the pandemic.

In Boulder, the relationship between COVID-19 infection trends and online crime rates was scrutinized using a correlation analysis, backed by a scatter plot. The analysis yielded a correlation coefficient of 0.078, indicating a moderate, positive relationship between these variables. This data suggests that as COVID-19 cases rise, there’s a corresponding increase in online crime arrests.

To establish a stronger link beyond mere correlation, population was introduced as a control variable. Adjusting for population, the correlation between COVID-19 cases and online crime rates remained significant. This adjustment implies that the pandemic’s influence on online crime rates is not solely a byproduct of population size, but a direct consequence of the pandemic itself. The scatter plot, illustrating this relationship, underlines this connection with a visible trend: An apparent correlation between the instances of Covid-19 new cases and online crime arrests.

• R-squared Value (0.002): This value, though small, points to a potential, albeit modest, connection between the pandemic and variations in online crime rates.
• F-Statistic (22.82) and Prob (F-statistic) (1.80e-06): The high F-statistic and low p-value suggest that the observed relationship is statistically significant and not a result of random chance.
• Intercept: Near zero, indicating the baseline level of online crime in the absence of new COVID-19 cases and population changes.
• New COVID-19 Cases (1.855e-08): Indicates a slight increase in online crime rates with each additional reported COVID-19 case.
• Population (2.688e-12): Demonstrates a small but significant effect of population size on online crime rates.

Supporting Studies

A study from Ghent University provides additional insights, revealing how the pandemic, combined with lockdown measures, has significantly increased the time people spend online, thereby escalating cybercrime opportunities. The study highlights a substantial rise in phishing attacks, exploitation of vulnerabilities in remote working and schooling, and increased risks to specific population segments such as children and the elderly. This global trend of rising cybercrime during the pandemic resonates with the findings in Boulder, emphasizing the need for enhanced cyber-security measures and public awareness.

This comprehensive analysis paints a clear picture of the significant impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on online crime in Boulder, reinforcing the necessity for continuous vigilance and proactive measures to safeguard communities in these challenging times.

Conclusion

The COVID-19 pandemic has transcended its status as a mere health crisis, emerging as a catalyst for sweeping social and economic transformations within Boulder, Colorado. This study has unearthed the multifaceted impacts of the pandemic, which have had profound and far-reaching consequences on the community’s social fabric.

Our analysis revealed critical insights into three distinct areas:

1. Academic Performance: A noticeable decline in average GPAs and an elongated timeframe to graduation at CU Boulder mirrored the challenges in the academic domain, highlighting the implications of the sudden shift to online learning. The data not only reflects the struggle of students in adapting to this new mode of education but also resonates with broader educational trends observed nationwide.

2. Online Crime Surge: A significant finding was the rise in online crime arrests, closely mirroring the trajectory of COVID-19 cases. This trend underscores a shift in criminal activities, aligning with increased digital dependence during the pandemic. While demonstrating a moderate positive relationship between COVID-19 cases and online crime rates, it also highlighted the critical role of population size as a confounding variable.

3. Community Impact: The pandemic’s ripple effects extend beyond the campus, impacting the broader Boulder community. These changes challenge the existing paradigms of community resilience and necessitate a reevaluation of our approach to societal adaptation in post-pandemic times.

While this study provides a comprehensive view of the pandemic’s impacts, it acknowledges certain limitations. Due to the limited scope of our data and the broad complexity of socio-economic variables, our understanding remains incomplete. Future research should aim to incorporate more diverse data sources, examine additional variables such as economic factors, and explore long-term and pre-pandemic trends.

The findings underscore the need for proactive policy measures in education, law enforcement, and community welfare. Educational institutions must refine online learning methodologies to mitigate the academic challenges faced by students. Law enforcement agencies need to adapt their strategies to effectively combat the surge in online crimes, Community initiatives focusing on cyber security and online safety education are imperative to safeguard vulnerable populations.

This study calls awareness to the complicated impacts of COVID-19. It highlights the urgency for Boulder, and communities alike, to adapt and evolve in response to the new realities imposed by the pandemic, ensuring a resilient and sustainable future.

Sources:

• How does virtual learning impact students in higher education? (n.d.). Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-does-virtual-learning-impact-students-in-higher-education/#:~:text=A%20follow%2Dup%20survey%20of
• CNN, F. A. I. (2020, May 25). The pandemic is causing an exponential rise in the online exploitation of children, experts say. CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/25/us/child-abuse-online-coronavirus-pandemic-parents-investigations-trnd/index.html
• Lallie, H. S., Shepherd, L. A., Nurse, J. R. C., Erola, A., Epiphaniou, G., Maple, C., & Bellekens, X. (2021). Cyber Security in the Age of COVID-19: A Timeline and Analysis of Cyber-Crime and Cyber-Attacks during the Pandemic. Computers & Security, 105(1), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cose.2021.102248
• Radoini, A. (2020, September 28). Cyber-crime during the COVID-19 Pandemic. F3magazine.unicri.it. https://f3magazine.unicri.it/?p=2085