South Korea Retiring Into Economic Collapse
Introduction
South Korea has experienced an exceptional boom in the last couple decades. The country’s presence on the world stage can be seen in both the cultural sphere as well as in the economic sphere. South Korea is one of Asia’s largest economies, with powerhouse conglomerates like Samsung and Hyundai Motors, and the Korean Wave has made its rounds across the globe as K-pop and Korean television dramas have found fanbases in countries like the United States, Japan, Brazil, and Germany. However, It isn’t all just positive growth present in the country. South Korea is facing a serious problem in the age demographics of its population. Over the years, adults in the country have been having children at later stages in their life and at a reduced rate. The population is aging and there are less young people to take the place of older workers as they retire and join the country’s elderly population. If South Korea doesn’t take measures to increase the rate of children being born as well as restructuring their economy to maintain efficiency despite a continuously shrinking labor pool, the country may face economic collapse. There will not be enough labor in the future to keep the economy running.
Data
The data for this analysis has been obtained from the United States Census Bureau, which publishes the “International Database: World Population Estimates and Projections” which can be accessed and downloaded by the public. The database is an estimation and projection of the populations for over 200 countries. The data has been produced since the 1960s and the database has been published since 1996. The projections estimate population through to the year 2100. Within the data, was the populations for countries separated into 5-year age brackets. This is the data that was specifically used for analysis.
Population Distributions
South Korea has seen a major shift in the age of its population in just the last few decades. The shift may possibly be attributed to the rapid economic growth of the country, but this has not been explored further in this analysis.
The above figure is a distribution plot of the population of South Korea in 1990. The blue on the left represents the Male population while the red represents the Female population. Here, you can see that the highest populations were among 15 to 34 year olds. This is a rather young age group. At this time, there was a significant youth population in the country and they are all in the prime age to be working as laborers and working towards their careers. You can also see that the oldest of the population look to cap out at around 80 to 84 years old.
Here, the figure above is a distribution plot of the population of South Korea in 2022. You can see that there has been a significant shift in the population of the country in just 32 years. In this figure, you can see that the largest populations are now among 40 to 59 year olds. The largest age group by population is now much older. It would seem that the 15 to 34 year olds who were the largest population in South Korea in 1990 stayed the largest group in the last 3 decades as they aged. The populations of younger people have not exceeded these now middle aged people at all. You can also see that the oldest populations have now aged to cap out at around 90 to 94 years old.
Population Groups
The figure above is a line plot that shows how the age demographics of South Korea has changed over the years. The 5 year age brackets have been grouped together into three age groups, Young, Middle, and Elder, in order to create this plot. From this you can see that there is a significant growth in both Elder and Middle populations. However, there is a steady and constant decline in the Young population. You can see that the Young population has been exceeded by the Middle population after 2000 and has never been above the Middle group ever since. Also, with the rate that the Young population has been decreasing and Elder population has been increasing, they are on track to possibly intersect in just a few years time. The Elder population can possibly outnumber the Young population in South Korea if the country maintains its current course. This could lead to disastrous consequences.
Conclusion
The South Korean population is rapidly aging and this does not bode well for the future of the economy of the country. It would seem that people are having children at a constantly reduced rate and this has significantly reduced the population of South Korea’s youth. With less youth, there will constantly be less and less manpower to fill the roles left behind by its aging and retiring population majority. A labor shortage will be created with this shift in population and organizations in the country will struggle to keep up their rate of production while also needing to increasingly allocate resources towards elder care. In the short term, the South Korean population will need to steadily increase its birth rate. In the long term, the country may need to look into making its economy less dependent on human labor, such as adopting increased automation and increasing workflow efficiency.
