How has COVID affected Baseball game attendance?
We all remember the weirdly dystopian, yet somehow heartwarming scene in baseball stadiums during the 2020 season. Seats once filled with fans were quickly filled with cardboard cutouts, stuffed bears, and other various representations of the people that used to warm them. After allowing fans back into the stands in 2021, has the average attendance at these stadiums dropped below expected rates?
In an attempt to make our analysis more complete, we also must look at some statistics from previous seasons. With 69,671,272 overall attendees from all games during the 2018 season, 2019 saw a 2% drop in attendance, with 68,506,896 attendees. Compare this with a 5% drop in attendance from 2017 to 2018, and a 1% drop from 2016 to 2017, it becomes more apparent that baseball attendance was already on an ever-so-slightly downward trend during the years leading up to the pandemic, leaving us with an average 2.66% drop in attendance year after year.
During the 2019 Season, 36 stadiums were utilized to play 2,429 Major League Baseball (MLB) games. The 2019 season even featured international games played in venues like Tokyo and London, with London stadium’s two special games having the highest average attendance of any games this season, an average of 59,359 attendees per game. For the purposes of this analysis however, we will only look at MLB home stadiums used during the 2019 and 2021 seasons. Excluding these outliers, average attendance at these stadiums ranged from 10,016 attendees at Marlin Stadium, to 49,065 attendees at Dodger Stadium.
To begin to answer our main question, let’s take a look at the average attendance at two of the largest and most iconic baseball stadiums in 2019 and 2021. During this season, Dodger Stadium remained king of the average attendance record, with 34,625 average attendees per game. Already it is obvious there is a large disparity between average attendance before and after the pandemic began. In this instance, a 30% drop in average attendance at Dodger Stadium occurred. With Yankee Stadium in New York City, A 40% drop in attendance was reported, with 24,195 average attendees in 2021 and 40,795 average attendees in 2019. These are shocking numbers, but at least for these two cities it makes sense. Los Angeles and New York were among the hardest hit populations during the height of the pandemic. As a result, the people living in these cities most likely took greater precautions than those living in other areas, and it is plausible that they did not prioritize activities such as attending baseball games during this time.
Surprisingly, one of the least affected stadiums was PETCO Park in San Diego, home of the Padres. PETCO Park has the unique distinction of being the most highly attended stadium with the least difference in attendance (3rd most attendance, 3rd least difference) between the 2019 and 2021 seasons. The 16th most attended stadium shot up in the rankings to become the 3rd most attended during 2021. One could interpret this information as this season being exceptionally good for the Padres, but with a flat 79–83 record, it is unlikely that they were inspiring anyone to attend with their performance. Between these two seasons, PETCO Park’s average attendance only went down by 2,524 attendees, or by 8%. Even still, one of the least affected stadiums is suffering from a drop more than three times the expected rate. Taking a look at the major stadium with the least difference in average attendance between these seasons, we turn to Guaranteed Rate Field, home of the Chicago White Sox. With a 4% decrease in attendance, or 765 less attendees, this stadium still suffers from a higher than expected decrease in attendance.
Across all major American baseball stadiums in 2021, the MLB saw a 34% decrease in average attendance compared to 2019. Not a single stadium increased attendance between the seasons. While we were expecting a decrease in average attendance overall, this 34% decrease is unprecedented, being almost 13 times greater than the expected decrease of 2.66%. Utilizing the data collected, attendance at baseball games has dropped a significant amount, most likely due to the global pandemic. While we cannot say for certain if or when these numbers will pick back up, it is surely compelling to see yet another example of how this pandemic has influenced our culture.
