Sickness Seasonal Trends
Everyone gets sick at least once or twice a year, but have you ever noticed that you get sick around the same time each year? Even if you don’t, there are lots of people who do and this could be caused by many different seasonal factors.
Looking at data published by the CDC that shows the number of deaths caused by a specific illness in each week of the year between the years 2014 and 2022, someone may ask the question “Are there any seasonal patterns or trends throughout the years regarding deaths to each cause?” People are curious to know more about what time of year most people die from these illnesses and for what reason. Specifically, there are a few illnesses that people want to know more about the trends within these illnesses: septicemia (blood poisoning), diabetes, Alzheimer’s, influenza, heart disease, cerebrovascular disease (stroke), and COVID-19. I analyzed the change over time for each illness and determined the season that most people die in from each cause. There are two powerful trends that were discovered: the number of deaths for each illness over the years 2014–2022 has been relatively stable, excluding COVID-19 of course, and, not very surprisingly, more people die from illness in the fall/winter seasons than summer and spring.
Overall, the number of deaths throughout the years have been relatively stable for almost all of the illnesses I listed above. The highest number of deaths caused by Septicemia was in the year 2017 with 36,419 deaths and the lowest was in the year 2019 with 33,765 deaths. This calculates to a 7.6% difference, which is not that much considering the differences between some of the other illnesses. For example, the highest number of deaths caused by Alzheimer’s disease was 135,381 in the year 2020 and the lowest was 92,875 in 2014. Between 2020 and 2014 there is a 37% difference in the number of lives lost. Why was there such an increase in the number of people with Alzheimer’s? The greatest known risk factor for Alzheimer’s disease is increase in age. It is a combination of age-related changes in the brain, along with genetic, environmental, and lifestyle factors. With the technological advancements in the health and wellness industry, people are no longer dropping like flies when they reach 80 years old. More and more people are having increased life expectancy which can have a correlation with acquiring Alzheimers. It is factors like advanced technology that increase lifetime that can explain why we see an increase in the number of deaths caused by illnesses; the more people still alive, the more people who can be diagnosed.
Now, onto the seasonal trends that were discovered about these illnesses. Have you ever gotten a cold in the summer? It is not very likely to become sick in the summertime but not impossible. With deep analysis of the CDC data, it is found that, over all the illnesses, summertime has the lowest average of deaths than all other seasons with an average of 58 deaths in total. The biggest cause of death in the summer is heart disease with an average of 222 people dead and the lowest being septicemia at an average of 12 deaths. Such a high average in heart disease deaths could be due to the fact that hot weather means your body has to work harder to keep its core temperature to normal levels, and this puts extra strain on your heart. However, the summer season is one where people feel sick the least and this could be due to many different reasons. For example, in the summertime people spend more of their day outside than in their homes and there aren’t as many germs outside as there are inside a house. People are doing more physical activity which may help flush bacteria out of the lungs and airways and can reduce your chance of getting a cold, flu, or other illness. It’s safe to say that if you were infected with an illness during the summer time, your chances of survival would be much greater than if you were infected during another time of the year. (However, keep in mind the correlation between warm weather and heart disease.)
Spring is the time of regrowth and reinvigoration for the natural world. It’s also the time of getting over sickness and rebuilding the immune-system for people. Most people fall sick in the weeks of winter and that can sometimes carry over into the spring season. The spring season has the second lowest average number of deaths for the illnesses discussed with an average of 59 deaths in total. Similarly to summer, the leading cause of death is heart disease with an average of 233 people. This could be caused by the introduction of warmer weather from the winter months and the shift in temperature.
Once the tree’s leaves change color, you may also feel a change in your immune system. According to the data, winter and fall (fall only being slightly better) are the worst seasons to get sick. Heart disease, again, is the leading cause of death in fall and winter seasons followed by COVID-19 with a total of 653,989 recorded deaths. There is a 48% difference between the total number of COVID related deaths from fall and winter compared to summer and spring combined.
When you’re outside on a chilly day, you may have noticed that your nose feels cold, this causes your body to not be as effective at fighting a virus when cold air enters the nose and upper airways. People tend to spend more time indoors during the fall and winter. This makes it easier for germs to spread that can then enter your body if you touch your face. Also, vitamin D is great for your immune system and when people don’t spend as much time outdoors during fall and winter, their vitamin D levels drop. All of these factors are responsible for your immune system to not be able to fight off sickness as efficiently. That is most likely why fall and winter seasons have the highest average number of deaths for all of the sicknesses discussed.
