Travelling Jetsons Style
Hyperloop and the Future of Mobility
Our conceptions of mobility are rapidly changing. When, how, and where we travel shifted colossally over the last year. Global traffic congestion dropped and, as once-crowded freeways began to unclog, an inverse correlation between COVID-19 infections and public transit surfaced. In January 2021, public transit use in Canada was down nearly 75% from the prior year. Simultaneously, online shopping skyrocketed and, suddenly, freight transportation and supply chains became part of public discourse.
What does the future of mobility hold? How has our experience with a global pandemic shifted our views on the transportation of goods and people? Have proximity preferences permanently changed — and if so, what does that mean for existing modalities and infrastructure? These and other questions remain to be answered, but undoubtedly, the very nature of mobility is rapidly evolving, and technology is the heartbeat of this change. So, why not dream big? Why not envision a whole new era of transportation, built specifically for the modern world?
Recently, ICTC’s Senior Director of Research & Policy sat down with Mars Geuze, Chief Commercial Officer of Hardt Hyperloop. Hailing from Delft, Netherlands, the home of Europe’s RoboValley, Hardt is leading the vision of a 10,000 KM European Hyperloop Network. Powered by renewable energy, Hyperloop vows to recalibrate the future of continental travel.
Alexandra: Thanks for joining me today, Mars. For our readers who may not be familiar, can you explain what a hyperloop is?
Mars: Sure. In its simplest form, a hyperloop is just another mode of transit for goods or people. In it, vehicles travel autonomously through a network of low-pressure tubes. Every trip is direct, meaning it goes to a single destination without any stops.
Alexandra: And how do the vehicles travel though the tubes?
Mars: They are suspended; effectively, they are guided and propelled electromagnetically, so there is no friction and no moving components within the tubes.
Alexandra: Interesting! Where do you see the most valuable use case for a hyperloop? Does it lie with the transportation of goods or people?
Mars: It will be very much both, but let’s start with goods because that’s a bit nearer on the horizon. Since the 1960s, we’ve been moving towards larger and larger containers to transport goods. But if you look at today’s market, it’s clear that on-demand deliveries are increasingly expected — the current market is all about continuous flow. Mass digitization of commerce means that when I press a button and order something, I want to have it right away. With our current logistics systems, the only way to achieve this is by duplicating warehousing, stock, and processes near every city, sometimes multiple times. Hyperloop can break this cycle by shifting supply chain networks toward stock centralization. Hyperloops can pick up stock from a central location, deliver it to a hub near an urban centre, and from there, another provider can do the last mile delivery.
Alexandra: What is needed to support this? New physical infrastructure? Advanced technologies?
Mars: I would argue that much of the technology already exists. You can think of a hyperloop as an airplane without wings, in a tube.
On the physical infrastructure side, the foundations are already there. Globally, millions of kilometres of pipes already exist and are used daily to transport petrol. Building large networks of sealed pipes isn’t an unfamiliar endeavour. This concept can be easily adapted to suit hyperloop projects.
Now, when it comes to operationalization, of course there is still a lot of work to be done. The “pipes” (tubes) specifically needed for hyperloops are currently being built at test sites around the world, but for a European Network that would connect the largest cities, you’re looking at about 10,000 km of pipes and a pricetag of about €300 billion or €30 million/km. In other words, there are big time and cost investments that need to be made to support this vision.
Mobilizing these investments requires demonstrating value. To advance this, we’re focusing on multi-state adoption and interoperability. A link on its own doesn’t have a very good business case — the business case gets built by having a network of links. My hope is that as we are building, the policies to support deployment under a bigger government vision follow suit.
Alexandra: Can you unpack what you mean by the last bit: supportive policy under a bigger government vision?
Mars: In essence, it’s all about policies and mechanisms that reduce risk. Let’s start with standardization. Three years ago, we developed a standardization partnership for Hyperloop. We convened all Hyperloop companies, including TransPod, to work towards developing standards for building, testing, and deployment. We’re now focusing on developing the first European standard, but eventually we hope to create an ISO standard.
In a space like this, that’s so new and unknown, standardization is key to ensuring safety and building public confidence. And, if we know that we are building something that adheres to agreed-upon standards, our risk at deployment is significantly reduced. The same is true for governments, who undoubtedly will be key to Hyperloop’s success.
Alexandra: Do you think that standardization efforts are moving fast enough?
Mars: Yes, I do. It may be hard to believe, but this is one of the fastest exploration processes that has ever been undertaken! Even the European Committee for Standardization (CEN) is impressed with how quickly a joint technical committee was developed. I’m confident that we are moving at a good pace.
Alexandra: Earlier, you alluded to the notion that Hyperloop can be used to move both goods and people. How do you see this evolving on the people front?
Mars: It’s funny you should ask, because although the movement of goods will be faster to market from a regulatory perspective, the business case for using Hyperloop to move people is stronger. There are a few promising use cases for passengers: one is continental travel. Currently, this is largely dominated by the aviation industry. But, in nearly any instance that you’d fly within a continent, you could also take a hyperloop, and it would be competitive both in terms of time and cost. Additionally, recent research suggests that hyperloops can be up to ten times more energy efficient than airplanes.
Alexandra: So where are the biggest barriers beyond the regulatory frameworks that need to be developed? Is it as safe as travelling by air or rail?
Mars: Much safer, I would argue. A hyperloop is ultimately just a vehicle that can move itself to the left or to the right; what’s unique about it is that there are no moving components on the track. With rail, tracks have to switch, and the instant in which the track has switched or is switching is when there’s the most risk. Hyperloops are inherently safer because they operate in full isolation from the environment. This means that there are no crossings with other modalities or people, no weather influences, and as a result, no real possibility for it to derail. Because of this, a lot of risk is mitigated, and that allows us to further increase capacity with platooning.
The biggest potential hazard with a hyperloop is the low-pressure environment — and this is partly why I say that it is more akin to a plane (in a tube) than to traditional rail. Like a plane, there are several solutions to respond to changes in pressurization in case of emergency. The most obvious one is to quickly locally repressurize the tube.
Alexandra: What about consumer perception? Do you know how would-be passengers feel — is there apprehension, given the newness of this mode of transit?
Mars: That’s a timely question because we recently did some research that tried to figure this out. We surveyed Dutch and German residents to understand the concerns that people have about Hyperloop. Initially, I thought that the main concern would be related to safety because of the high speeds that the vehicles travel at. But it turned out to be cost. People assumed that it would be an expensive mode of transit — or at least more expensive than current options. This made it clear to me that we need to focus on communicating that Hyperloop travel is something that can be affordable for everyone. In all our economic models, we’ve found that Hyperloop travel can be very cost-effective because of the capacity it can achieve, and as a result, it can be priced very competitively. We need to make sure that we communicate this and gain buy-in.
Alexandra: Do you mean at the consumer level, or are you looking for buy-in from other players as well, like regulators, governments, other industry leaders?
Mars: Absolutely, it has to be across the broad. Anything else would lead to siloed and ineffective outcomes.
Alexandra: What are the risks associated with siloed approaches?
Mars: The biggest risk by far is that different projects are developed, all using different approaches, and they all completely diverge. You can argue that North America and Europe can have their own networks, and they may never be connected. But, travelling from Europe to Asia via Hyperloop is conceivable — it just can’t be achieved using siloed approaches. Building with collaboration and interoperability in mind from the get-go ensures that deployment is safer, cheaper, and more effective. I personally see no feasible alternative to a collaborative approach, which is why I end every meeting with the European Commission by making it clear that we should be working towards an interoperable system. This is what will produce the best outcome for humanity.
