Start from the beginning: Imagining the Future(s)

The forces of change considered in various configurations in the foregoing scenarios include:

Economy

Concentration of wealth and middle-class prosperity — The size and effect of wealth and income gaps between the wealthiest and those in the middle and bottom.

The labor force — The growth in “gig” and precarious employment.

State of the U.S. and global economy — The relative health of the U.S. and world economy, and the relative level of volatility.

Technology

Technological advances and adoption — How quickly next-generation technologies–such as artificial intelligence, sensors and wearables–will be deployed, how widely they are adopted, and their impact on life.

Digital divides — If and how technology adoption, usage and functionality will divide along social and economic lines.

Transportation — How localities invest in public transportation, and broad changes to how people move in and between communities.

Applied bioscience and health care — The pace of scientific advancements in health, including in therapeutics, and the breadth of their applications in mainstream care.

Data collection, usage and protection — How data are collected, owned and used, and the impact on individuals and institutions.

Cybersecurity and digital resilience — The fragility or robustness of digital infrastructure, how it could be tested, and the public and institutional response.

Society

Social capital, connectivity and engagement — How connected people feel to their communities and to each other.

Civic engagement — How Americans will engage civically, and to what extent. Whether new forms of engagement will supplant formal political participation.

Demographic shifts — The effect of significant demographic change in the U.S., including race, immigration, religion and family formation.

Education — The status of public education, and the role and institutional landscape of higher education.

Arts — Changes to artistic production and presentation, the status of major arts institutions, and audience trends and preferences.

Journalism and information — The quality and quantity of local, regional and investigative journalism. Changes in audiences, distribution and production of content.

Politics

Global geopolitics — Broad geopolitical dynamics and the international security environment, and the resulting influence on the U.S.

Public faith in institutions — The level of faith in major public and private institutions, including government, schools, political parties, corporations, and, civic and faith institutions.

Political polarization — The level of polarization of the American electorate and political institutions.

Government talent and modernization — How governments use technology and business process improvement to become more effective and responsive. How government reacts to the aging out of a significant portion of the civil sector.

Municipal budgets and city infrastructure — How federal and state governments invest in major infrastructure, and the status of municipal budgets.