Building a New Myanmar
The biggest challenge in Myanmar for Daw Suu Kyi will be in handling the long drawn peace process between the various ethnic nations and the union government. Political and cultural rights need to be restored to overcome the deep seated antagonism between the union government and the ethnic nations.
Myanmar voters have given Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy party an overwhelming victory in the first multi-party elections the country has had in 25 years. The mandate gives Suu Kyi 390 seats in the 664-member legislature in a near-final tally. The remaining seats are distributed between the military which is constitutionally authorized to hold 25% of the seats, the USDP (current ruling party), and other ethnic parties. The vote for president will take place in March of 2016 and the new government will start its term on April 1st, provided all goes well in the handover process. Suu Kyi has emphasized that regardless of who is voted in as the president, she will remain the power behind the seat. If she does so, she will have to contend, negotiate and come to terms with ruling the country alongside the military industrial complex. It also means helming a complicated peace process between the union government and the ethnic groups in the country.
Suu Kyi in interviews, post victory has mentioned negotiating peace agreements with the many ethnic nations spread across the borders of Myanmar as her highest priority. She has called for ceasefire agreements and an effort for a stronger federal system of governance. As important as ceasefire agreements are for the ethnic nations, it would have a lot more impact if peace also came in the form of restoring equal rights, freedom to practice their religion, and use their language. The current peace process has not offered much in this regard and Suu Kyi’s insistence on charting her own peace process might signify a far more comprehensive agreement.
The current USDP government has signed a national ceasefire agreement with 8 ethnic groups in October of 2015. According to the terms of the agreement, a framework for peace would be put in place by December 14th and formal dialogue will begin before January 14th. Suu Kyi and the NLD party have so far not taken part in any of the negotiations. Suu Kyi has in fact criticized the deal for not covering enough ground and has encouraged ethnic parties to not sign the deal.
Even while the national ceasefire agreement was being put into place, the military had started offensives in Shan, and Kachin states in the east and north east of the country. The intensifying of armed conflict was seen by many as a measure to push rebellious states that had refused the deals of the agreement to concede and fall in line. The offensive only served to magnify the reasons why many of the ethnic nations on Myanmar’s borders continue to remain on the periphery of the union.
The political, economic and cultural exclusion of the tribes from the union and from the midlands forms the backbone of the many ills that plague the country. The war between Yangon (Rangoon) and the ethnic nations predates independence from Britain, and has the dubious distinction of serving as the backdrop for two of the longest running insurgencies in the world. Myanmar’s self exclusion and continued alienation has only served to aggravate issues.
The political alienation resulted from overthrowing the Panglong agreement that was part of the original 1948 constitution. The agreement was signed between general Aung San and the Kachin, Shan and Chin people. It promised full autonomy in internal administration, envisioned the creation of Kachin state and promised to look at secession for Shan state in ten years. More importantly it accorded all of the ethnic nations all the fundamental rights and privileges enjoyed by people of democratic countries. The agreement was historical for it signified the coming together of men who had often fought on opposing sides of the battlefield, often with each other during WWII. The Kachin, Karen tribes had sided with the British, and Aung San’s Burmese Army backed the Japanese just before it invaded Burma in 1942.
Deep seated suspicion over the loyalties of tribes like Kachin, & Karen boiled into full fledged animosity on both sides. Failed promises from the time of Independence to persistent insurgent movements escalated to a brutal crackdown in the region during the coup. The military’s objective was to regain control of the country from the various interlopers of varied ethnicities who strayed in during the British era, and restoring the control of the country to the Bamar people, the largest ethnic group in the country.
The military viewed the Bamar people as the original inhabitants of the country. They therefore represented true ‘Burman nationalism’. ‘Burman nationalism’ meant establishing Burmese language, Buddhism and Buddhist culture over all others. It also meant sidelining minorities of other religions, and ethnicities, denying equal opportunity, rights or citizenship for them. The antagonism between the ethnic nations and the Bamar majority, union government has been exacerbated by the intolerance and coercive majoritarianism exhibited by the center through various means. Cultural exclusion included pushing Burmese language, culture, religion on them in schools and colleges. The result has been a a group of people marooned from their own culture, and left raft less by a system that demands homogeneity without reason.
For Suu Kyi to effectively govern the country, it will be critical to strike a balance between the military industrial complex that controls vital departments including security, and the ethnic nations. There has been enough antagonism from both sides and the almost 6 decades of conflict has taken its toll. The country struggles with an extremely large number of internally displaced people, and a porous border that has resulted in a major drug and human smuggling networks. Military commanders also moonlight as businessmen dealing in farming everything from poultry to poppy, mining and selling everything from rubies to rare jade. There has been very little indication that they are willing to give away their riches and their position just because a non military backed, democratic government has come into power.
Suu Kyi will have to navigate deftly and diplomatically between the military and the people who voted for her. Part of her diplomatic heft has to also be wielded with Myanmar’s neighbors, specifically India and China, to ensure their support for stability at the borders and non interference for her policies inside the country. Suu Kyi’s victory at the elections came without the voters asking much of her in terms of policies, alliances or detailed mandates on how she would govern. There have been fewer questions raised about the shades of authoritarianism involved in her emphatic assurance of being higher than the president. She has been handed the pulpit on a platter. How she uses her position will determine the future of her country.
