Creating A National League for Democracy
The challenge of changing the constitution was monumental and futile from the beginning. Suu Kyi needs to turn her focus on creating the next generation of democratic leaders. To paraphrase from Batman, it no longer matters who she is, but what she does in her current position, that will go on to define her.
On June 25th, 2015 the Burmese parliament struck down five of six proposed amendments in the 2008 constitution. The amendments were struck down after three days of debates, during which the military argued passionately and with power point presentations, on why it needed to a central role in governance. The overturning of the amendments eliminated the remote possibility of full-fledged democracy in the country as it prepares for the November 2015 election.
One of the amendments targeted Article 436(a) and (b) of the constitution. It would have reduced the majority required in the parliament to pass amendments from 75 percent to 70 percent. The reduction was crucial, since the military currently occupies 25% of the seats and could effectively block any measure that would undermine their hold on power. In spite of two-thirds of the MP’s voting for the amendment, the veto held by the military managed to strike it down.
The second of the five failed amendments was to strike down one portion of the article Article 59(f). The amendment proposed lifting one section of a ban on presidential candidates whose relatives are foreign citizens. The proposed amendment was misunderstood by many to mean that it would directly impact Aung San Suu Kyi’s chances in the upcoming election. The amendment wouldn’t have made any difference to her status. As a wife of a foreign citizen and having sons with foreign citizenship, she has very little chance of becoming president under the current constitution.
The third amendment that was passed over was Article 60 that would have enabled a President and Vice President to be chosen from people-elected parliamentary representatives and not from non-elected members or directly elected military personnel.
The blocking of all vital amendments were made under the premise of protecting the stability of the country. Representatives from the military argued that the presence of the “Myanmar military in the legislative and administrative sectors, was necessary to protect and stand for the country in its time of need,” They also concluded that stability and reconciliation was needed more than democratic processes.
Suu Kyi, since her release in 2010, and since the announcement of the elections has maintained that the west was being overly optimistic about the speed and nature of reforms. She has also maintained a healthy skepticism about the promise of an election under a more inclusive constitution. Given her degree of mistrust in the system and her incredulity at the possibility of holding an executive position in the government, it is very surprising that she has done very little on the ground to prepare the party to move quickly without being bogged down by the constitutional amendment game.
The party has yet to announce decisively on whether it will compete in the November elections. There is also the glaring absence of any kind of policy debate both within the party and outside. The NLD has raised issues of voter list problems and has conducted registration drives, but little else seems to have happened. It can be argued that in a country where politics and political process remain extremely unreliable and where military leaders are used to conducting whimsical governance, there is little point in direct engagement. The other side of the argument is that Suu Kyi has very little to lose in pushing for democratic processes at the ground level. Her pragmatism, while necessary needs to also be tempered by the fact that there has been a history of people movements supporting strong military leaders who promise stability in exchange for rights. Breaking that chain in the next few months, then becomes critical.
The NLD urgently needs to mentor a second tier of leaders who can bring a degree of stability to the party and ensure smoother transition towards democracy. Suu Kyi has written extensively about the necessity of civil servants who understand the system and can ensure continuity in a democracy. She has the opportunity to do that now regardless of the elections in November. They need to be trained to address critical gaps in policy based issues and prepare the party for a devolvement from the 88 generation leaders and Suu Kyi. This aspect of party politics is critical for a sustained battle against an unrelenting military government in the country.
The NLD should also prepare itself to face a parliament where it will not be in the majority. The change from first past the post voting system to proportional representation will mean more diversity within the parliament. The diversity is also assured by the fact that a record number of political parties, mostly ethnic parties will be taking part in this election. Collective decision making will push the party towards taking stance on critical issues including human rights, economic growth, and foreign investments. The NLD can assert itself only if it knows its own mind.
The next three months will be critical for both the party and the country. The challenge of changing the constitution was monumental from the beginning, and Suu Kyi’s chance of becoming the president was close to nil. Given the impracticable circumstances, and the mercurial nature of the Burmese politics, Suu Kyi cannot afford to step back now.
