Suu Kyi in China
Aung San Suu Kyi’s visit to China needs to be seen within the framework of a politician engaging with a neighbour who might hold the future for economic growth in her country.
The National League for Democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi along with a few members from her party are in the middle of a 5 day trip to China. She met with the Chinese President Xi Jinping a day after she landed in China, and is scheduled to meet with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang. While details of her discussions will not be made public, there has been considerable interest in what is a historic visit. China has hosted leaders from opposition parties of other countries in an effort to expand its reach internationally. This however is the first time the country will play host to a person whose incarceration it backed, for a military regime that held Burma’s development back by several decades.
China is keen to appeal to a broader base within Burma. This is to ensure the safety and continuity of its investments in the region and to maintain its dominance in an area that has suddenly become attractive for other investors. The 2010 elections that brought the reformist government of Thein Sein into power, pushed China to the back-burner as a potential investor and ally. The Myistone Dam and Letpadaung copper mine, along with the Kyaukphyu gas line that runs from the northwestern state of Rakhine in Burma to Yunan province in southern China, were meant to be part of a bigger strategy to ensure China’s dominance in the region. The former two have since run into trouble with ethnic groups protesting against the Chinese for unfair practices and environmental degradation. Meanwhile, Burma, as a part of its economic reform, has shown a keen interest in encouraging western firms and governments to invest more in the country. This move has effectively pushed China to engage at a deeper level with other political parties in Burma to ensure its relevance in the region.
The Burmese government late last year announced an election tentatively scheduled for early November 2015. The election, the first one that will be open to external monitors, will see Suu Kyi’s NLD party possibly coming into power. The invitation to Suu Kyi, is an attempt by China to set right its relationship with an eye to the future. The statement released by the official press agency Xinhua took efforts to point out that the Chinese Communist Party was
“ready to engage with any political parties as long as they are willing to promote the sound development of relations with China.”
It was also hopeful that Suu Kyi would China welcomes anyone with friendly intentions and it bears no grudge for past unpleasantness.
Aung San Suu Kyi has bigger fish to fry in Burma. The country’s constitution, drafted and strong-armed into approval by the army in 2008, bars Suu Kyi from becoming president. It also gives one-fourth representation to the army, and critical powers that would enable it to block any amendments. There has been a lot of speculation about striking down these laws, but very little by way of actual action. Her party, which still has not put forth a strong second in command, will be going head to head against 70 other parties that have registered for the election. Her tremendous appeal will ensure a strong show for the party, but how much and how strong remains an unknown. Her support for the Letpadaung mine and her staunch refusal to engage into any conversation about the abject treatment of the Rohingya’s have chipped away at her support at some level. Her support for the China backed projects, along with her visit to the country will be questioned by many and could possibly affect her standing with the ethnic minorities.
Her willingness to compromise, and work with Thein Sein, in bringing Burma into the 21st century has shown her to be a pragmatic politician and an astute leader of her party. Her acceptance of the invitation to China is perhaps a signal that she recognizes the importance of Chinese investments for her country and a hope that she might be able to assure China of her support if they were willing to engage in responsible investments in Burma. Co-operation with China would also mean an ability to bargain for peace on the borders, without any uncomfortable questions about her silence on human rights issues within Burma. The recent escalation of conflict on the borders between Kokang rebels and the Burmese military was a sign of the growing tensions between the two neighbours. A ceasefire agreement has since been signed, but it remains contingent upon the 2015 elections.
There is very little that is guaranteed about the near future of Burma. The election dates have not yet been finalized. The Nationwide Ceasefire Accords that was to be signed between the government and the ethnic groups have been teetering, and the extremely porous borders make law and order a nightmare. Aung San Suu Kyi however, is guaranteed a place in the future of modern Burmese politics. Her visit to China, along with members from her NLD party needs to be seen as a chance to cement her place in the power corridors of Burma. The world, more specifically Burma’s neighbours, needs to remove its grimy rose-tinted, nobel peace prize aviators and see, and engage, with her as the pragmatic, tactical politician she has grown into. And that might not be a bad thing for Burma.
